You said "I have to admit, I was rather surprised when he announced his attempt for the first time last year." So when he announced it and was a top 10 TTist you were surprised, but you now imply that if he was a top 10 TTist at the moment you wouldn't be. So which is it? Either he was a top 10 TTist when you heard about this attempt and thus it isn't surprising, or being a top 10 TTist is irrelevant so it's strange you brought it up?
I'm not implying anywhere that if he was top 10 TTist at the moment, then I wouldn't be surprised. By saying he's not in "top 10" (that was just a random rhetorical number that I used, don't put that much into that), I simply wanted to point out, that if you had to think of a rider, who could challange Victor's record, Dowsett certainly isn't the one, who comes to your mind in the first place. Neither last year, nor this year. That's why his annoucement made me surprised. I would've been equally surprised had he announced his attempt this year for the first time. The only reason this time I wasn't, was because I've already known it's gonna happen, cause it failed to happen last year.
So the level of TTing changes super fast, 7 months is acceptable and 12 isn't? What is the arbitrary cut off and how is this measured? And how does it relate to the fact he was a top 10 TTist when you heard about this attempt?
The thing is, Campenaerts proved his TT ability 4 weeks before his attempt, by winning that Tirreno stage against a strong field. His results in ITTs were also much more consistent in the period leading to the attempt, as I showed in one of my previous posts. The best Alex's result after being 9th at Worlds in '20, was 14th in the Giro opening stage in May. In the only other ITT he started in 2021 (UAE, pancake flat course) he placed 27th.
You seem to miss my point about team leaders, I'm well aware that the HR is different to both road racing and TTing. There are team leaders who haven't won races in years and have about the same chance of winning as Dowsett had of breaking this record. No road races are obligatory, by your logic they should all not try to win.
No road races are obligatory? So what are the riders paid for?
Of course they should all try to win, because that's what their job is about and they have no other choice being professional cyclists (if we talk about leaders). WHR is a totally different thing, you can't compare those and say that's my logic.
So you didn't have all the information, were surprised, and now admit it was wrong to be. That's fine, but then why post in this thread and suggest that your initial surprise, which you've said was the wrong position to take, is a good reason for this thread being posted a year later, when all of Dowsett's intentions and motivations were extremely clear (you've even posted about his YouTube Videos elsewhere)?
Again, I haven't admitted it was wrong to be surprised. I just said that all of the Dowsett's intentions and motivations beyond braking the record itself, add another dimension to his attempt, making it more reasonable. But at the same time, looking at it from the record-braking perspective only, and I'll say it again, imo Dowsett haven't shown enough to consider him as a serious threat for Campenaert's record and beacuse of this simple fact, I think I had every right to feel surprised.