Amstel Gold Race 2023, one day classic, April 16 (men's)

[Netserk]

Cosnefroy.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Who is the most likely to follow Pog if he decides to go early? Benoot? Pidcock?

If he's just remotely close to Flanders, prolly no one I'd expect. When you don't line up as an absolute a-tier rider against him, Im afraid you stand absolutely no chance. Im all here for it though, Im looking forward to the inevitable solo with 30-40 km to go.

 

[Sciatic]

I’m sick of Pog dominating races, I’ll be sick of Vingo if he wins the tour this year, I’m sick of Roglic’s fans and I’ll be sick of Remco if he becomes the dominant rider as expected.

Hopefully you watched Brabant then?

 

[Sciatic]

If he's just remotely close to Flanders, prolly no one I'd expect. When you don't line up as an absolute a-tier rider against him, Im afraid you stand absolutely no chance. Im all here for it though, Im looking forward to the inevitable solo with 30-40 km to go.

Perhaps all the road furniture will discombobulate him and he’ll make a wrong turn somewhere.

 

[gunara]

Is Mohoric alright after the forgettable cobble campaign? Hope he'll be visible somewhere important.

Cosnefroy, though

 

[Monsi]

Is Mohoric alright after the forgettable cobble campaign? Hope he'll be visible somewhere important.

Cosnefroy, though

Mohoric already said prior to Roubaix that his form isn't the same as it was at the start of the season.

 

[postmanhat]

Who is the most likely to follow Pog if he decides to go early? Benoot? Pidcock?

Kragh Andersen definitely on the form he was in a month ago, but I believe he's been sick in the past weeks?

 

[DNP-Old]

Who is the most likely to follow Pog if he decides to go early? Benoot? Pidcock?

Magnus Sheffield.

 

[YavorD]

I actually think that Pog won't win that race. He should be a bit below his peak and he has a tendency of "underperforming" in the week before a monument. Okay, at least Lombardia, we didn't get to see him last year in LBL and FW 2021.

 

[yaco]

"The Australian rider has seen his spring campaign wrecked by a Covid-19 infection suffered right before Milano-Sanremo. He has managed to return to racing in the meantime but was forced to miss several cobbled classics and abandoned the Tour of Flanders. After a promising start to the season he now finds himself short of the form needed to perform in the Ardennes, and will focus on the Tour de France later in the year.", is what it said here, but no idea what's the source for it.

According to Stybar, Matthews also crashed in the Ronde, so that may play a part as well.

Actually, I thought Matthews should have ridden the Giro, instead of the TDF as there are more suitable stages. Anyway this won't happen with his injury/illness issues.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Who is the most likely to follow Pog if he decides to go early? Benoot? Pidcock?

Probably the smartest tactic is to let him escape solo, and then form a train to come back in the final 15 km.

 

[search]

I think Alaf and Fuglsang were scarred for life.

Alaf got a complex there anyway, few days before Van der Poel denied him what normall would have been a sure win in Brabantse Pijl, and suddenly there is somebody who outsprints him there.

just noticed that Flobikes did a "how the race was lost" kind of feature with Fuglsang the year after. Hadn't seen that one yet:

agr_fuglsang

Watch "agr_fuglsang" on Streamable.

streamable.com

 

[Devil's Elbow]

I actually think that Pog won't win that race. He should be a bit below his peak and he has a tendency of "underperforming" in the week before a monument. Okay, at least Lombardia, we didn't get to see him last year in LBL and FW 2021.

He won the final two stages of Paris-Nice a week before Sanremo and was at his normal level in E3 a week before Ronde this year. Don't see any reason to assume why he would suddenly be much weaker now that we're a week from his next monument.

 

[YavorD]

He won the final two stages of Paris-Nice a week before Sanremo and was at his normal level in E3 a week before Ronde this year. Don't see any reason to assume why he would suddenly be much weaker now that we're a week from his next monument.

My main argument is that he may/should be below his peak now. However, I won't be surprised is he totally obliterates the field here and in FW.

 

[Red Rick]

He won the final two stages of Paris-Nice a week before Sanremo and was at his normal level in E3 a week before Ronde this year. Don't see any reason to assume why he would suddenly be much weaker now that we're a week from his next monument.

There's this weird dilemma between trying to apply conventional cycling wisdom to Pogacar and going "yeah ofcourse Pog will nuke every race from early February to late April"

 

[Krzysztof_O]

My main argument is that he may/should be below his peak now. However, I won't be surprised is he totally obliterates the field here and in FW.

Exactly. He's been in a very good form since mid-February: it's been two months without even one weaker day. He should be on a downward curve already and he needs time for a recuperation period and building another peak (likely a month on altitude in the Alps). He still can win but I wouldn't expect as superb form as in Flandres (maybe Liege will actually be more difficult due to a later date).

 

[Lequack]

EF: How hairy do you like your riders?

 

[Lequack]

UAE recon

 

[Cookster15]

Meh, looking at the field this seems like a forgone conclusion. Anything other than a Pogacar win would be a surprise.

 

[RedheadDane]

UAE recon

That's... one way of solving the issue of forgetting to eat...

 

[Peyroteo94]

What most people seems to neglect is that Pogacar isn't in peak shape since February. His level in February and Paris Nice is not that high to his standards. The guy just has a base level much superior compared to other riders. His base level is enough to beat the peak of second tier riders (Mas, Landa, Yates, Bardet, Thomas. In classics, Pedersen, kung, etc). Only 4 or 5 riders can really beat him once in a while, specially when he is overconfident or the route is too easy. His peak was in Flanders. It was clearly his main goal in the spring season. No doubt about that. And for me he showed better shape this year compared to last year. He really dominated Ronde.
What is more funny is that Pogacar probably didn't even show his truly peak shape. He didn't even do an alttitude camp this year. At least not in February, where most of his main rivals did one which show how freak and fu##ing good he is. This dude born to be a cyclist.

 

[Lequack]

5 times Amstel winner Jan Raas, among many other wins

Jan Raas - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Lequack]

How Fuglsang and Alaphillipe lost 20 second advantage and let MVDP win Amstel

https://twitter.com/x/status/1646996396195692550

View: https://twitter.com/NairoInGreen/status/1646996396195692550?s=20

 

[Nick2413]

This race can’t come soon enough. A whole week with only Brabantse Pijl to fill the void is far too long after what we’ve been treated to the last couple months.

 

[Rob5091]

I expect bookies are not taking bets for Pogacar to win this one. The only entertaining thing could be a re-run of the "Tiesj and Attila" show from Strade Bianche.