Analyzing the first week of the tour de france 2015

[Kwibus]

Re:

Take away the TTT and it's one of the best first weeks I've ever seen in a Tour. But that TTT ruins everything. Riders will lose the chance to fight for the final win only because they have a weak team. There's already a huge disparity between rich and poor teams at WT level, but this TTT takes it to a whole different level. It's preposterous.

I love the discipline, but it's effect on the GC is too big imo. Specially on stage 9..

 

[Jagartrott]

Saturday they're now predicting even higher temperatures. Sunday still 4 Beaufort and Western winds predicted.

 

[Cimber]

It will be a super interesting first week. The downside might be that it might be so decisive (huge time gaps and a lot of crash-outs) that the following 2 weeks might become quite uninteresting

 

[Netserk]

Re:

It will be a super interesting first week. The downside might be that it might be so decisive (huge time gaps and a lot of crash-outs) that the following 2 weeks might become quite uninteresting

Imo, the bigger gaps that will be created in the first week the better. If the four were within 30 seconds after the TTT, they would probably just control each other as much as possible (at least in the Pyrenees). However if they are spread out over some minutes, some of them will have to actually do something and thus the rest to react to those actions.

 

[Cimber]

Re: Re:

It will be a super interesting first week. The downside might be that it might be so decisive (huge time gaps and a lot of crash-outs) that the following 2 weeks might become quite uninteresting

Imo, the bigger gaps that will be created in the first week the better. If the four were within 30 seconds after the TTT, they would probably just control each other as much as possible (at least in the Pyrenees). However if they are spread out over some minutes, some of them will have to actually do something and thus the rest to react to those actions.

Partly true. If the gaps are to big its bad (8-10 mins after a crosswind stage would kinda suck - but 1-3 mins would be great). But it also depends which ride has to do make time up after the frist week. But maintly I fear crash-outs like last year. That Froome and Contador crashed out kinda ruined the exitement and Nibs had no problems at all.

 

[WillemS]

Watch out for team cars riding too close behind the riders during the ITT (even though it's banned).

 

[Cimber]

On stage 2 sadly the wind is forecasted to be very light, especielly in the late afternoon, despite coming from the right direction (NW). Even gusts will be weak.

http://www.windfinder.com/forecast/ouddorp

 

[RENS99]

Who'll be the one wearing yellow the most days during that first week?

 

[Pricey_sky]

Re:

Who'll be the one wearing yellow the most days during that first week?

Really interesting and it could be shared around quite a lot. There are plenty of stages that will suit Valverde but then will he lose too much time on the iTT and cobbles?

I suppose if someone is to have the jersey for several days it could be Sagan as he should be good in the iTT as well as featuring in most of the opening weeks stages.

 

[RENS99]

An in-form Kwiatkowski should have a good chance at that as well, if only we knew more about that form.

 

[Billie]

Seen a lot of pics and vids of teams reconning the pave stage today. Those cobbles don't look hard at all.

 

[concorde]

only 20 *C in the Netherlands right now? I really envy you


any chance for a rainy cobbles stage? (we are all a bit naughty come on )

Lars Bak would not be happy about it though

Today 22 celsius which is perfect, but wednesday it will be over 30 celsius which I like when I'm on holiday, but not when I have to work

Its been 29 celsius in Oslo today, i always think its twice further down in Europe then.

I think its gonna be 50 celcius in Utrecht on Saturday, then Teklehaimanot wins with 2 minutes
http://www.procyclingstats.com/rider/Daniel_Teklehaimanot

 

[SafeBet]

Valverde will be good in the short ITT and probably even better on cobbles. I'm expecting big things from him in the first week.

 

[Anderis]

Re:

Valverde will be good in the short ITT and probably even better on cobbles. I'm expecting big things from him in the first week.

Last year he didin't impress on cobbles.

I find the cobbled stage during Grand Tour the most exciting cycling day during the whole year. We all know who has the best chance of performing well during sprints, mountain stages, cobbled or hilly classics. Performances of climbers on cobbled TdF stage brings the most uncertainty.

 

[The Hitch]

That ttt is totally unpredictable considering the most important factor will be how many riders a team has. It isn't out of the question that some of the big teams might be down to 4 by that stage.

However, does anyone else think the hills will play a part there assuming all the main teams miraculously have 9. You need 5 riders who can survive the final hill at fast pace of you'll need to slow down and I don't know if everyone has that.

 

[Eyeballs Out]

Re:

Seen a lot of pics and vids of teams reconning the pave stage today. Those cobbles don't look hard at all.

Has anyone seen any ASO star ratings for the cobbled secteurs ?

 

[ILovecycling]

Re:

That ttt is totally unpredictable considering the most important factor will be how many riders a team has. It isn't out of the question that some of the big teams might be down to 4 by that stage.

However, does anyone else think the hills will play a part there assuming all the main teams miraculously have 9. You need 5 riders who can survive the final hill at fast pace of you'll need to slow down and I don't know if everyone has that.

I think that every squad should start the final hill with at least 6 rider because its impossible for EVERY team to maintain a fine pace for the last (weak) rider, of course it will depend on various ttt squad composition but still I find it impossible.

And as you said most of the teams will be down to 8 or 7 riders by that stage and it will depend how many tt-ist are left there.
e.g. if Movistar lose Malori and Castroviejo they are fvcked, but if they lose anacona and erviti they will be bad but limit loses pretty well.

 

[Brullnux]

Just reading Geraint Thomas' predictions for the Tour, he has predicted Valverde to do very well on the cobbles. One of the favourites he has said. This surprised me greatly. Someone who is good on the cobbles like him should know other people who are strong, for me Valverde, while being above average is not really that good. Also, he has said this course for the ITT is too technical for Martin. And called Kristoff a pure sprinter. Thomas isn't really a great pundit. Considering Kristoff beat him at the ToF, obviuosly pure sprinters course I'm G's mind, makes it just sounds like spite calling him a pure sprinter,