Neither of us know it's true, sure. The UAE version for a specific section would be likely; particularly with the mano y mano last 6km. The last 6km of 2023 holds true, too although the motivation for each rider's involved JV stupid strategic conflict before the stage started.
It was a little unclear who was racing all out in 2023. Kuss for sure. Roglic maybe, Vingegaard probably not but maybe. Roglic likely knew he wouldn’t win the Vuelta there but wanted to make a statement.
This year, it seemed pretty clear that Almeida was going all in and Vingegaard couldn’t come around him.
Both years the gaps from the top 2 to the rest of the field was about the same. Kuss 30 seconds faster this year despite having been way worse all year up to that point and having way less at stake.
Tough to really extrapolate much IMO.