Ardennes Classics Discussion thread

[auscyclefan94]

ah I was going to make this thread, but forgot...

FW course is the same as last year, big loop -> small loop. They seemed to have gained 3km somewhere at the start of the race.

L-B-L course has a couple of small changes, well, a big one too. No Roche-en-Ardenne on the way down, and Saint-Roch is moved to the outward journey rather than on the way back. This time Côte de la Haute-Levée is back, in between Stockeu and Rosier.

AGR: Gilbert
FW: Rodriguez
L-B-L: Vino

I think Scarponi would have been a chance for L-B-L if he wasn't doing the Giro.

acf - has your man come to his senses and decided to do all three?

I think he will probably do it. Depends on if he has good form he has said.

Do you remember where that was, because I didn't see it.

The thing about Cadel's win last year was that his DS took him out to recon the climb for the first time in his career, and he realized he'd been racing it wrong all along. Pus he was at his peak fitness.

I expect Contador to win this year. Last year he did that as an add-on at a time he would normally have reached his peak and gone on a ten day vacation. He had the massive road trip by car due to the volcanic ash shutting down flights. Right now he's still building to fitness, with an eye to race into shape during the Giro, it will be his last race day before then, and he'll have Riis to help with strategy. I haven't seen it mentioned much, but when Spartacus took off on the 50 kilometer solo last year, it was Riis who told him to go.

Actually quite a lot of riders had to do long trip up from places all round europe.

AGR: Greg van Avermaet (i've been tipping him since december)
FW: Evans (he's brilliant on these finishes)
LBL: Gilbert (this was partially a fanboy tip as I think he may have had better form last year but he will still be up there)

 

[isayic]

Contador is doing FW I believe.

You don't have to believe it -- he confirmed that he will ride it and he considers one or two other classics. He has not much experience with classics but earned a podium spot at the Flèche Wallonne after his first try.
I think he has a chance to win it this year because he knows where he made a mistake that cost him the win in 2010. I'm sure he won't make that mistake again. That's why I think he has a chance to win. He also rounded out the top ten at LBL. And helped Vino fighting his rivials by disturbing them. And you can be sure that he won't do that 2011. There were already problems between him and Vino and he had to negotiate with Bjarne Riis secretly. If he'd ride LBL he can earn a better result. His 10th place last year wasn't bad for a rider with no experience. Let's see what will come.

 

[The Hitch]

Anyone mentioned Hornern? Top 10s last year as i recall. And on peak. If he won one, to at that age have a greater achievement than you ever dreamed of, a moment of awesomness that would be so so amazing

 

[roundabout]

You don't have to believe it -- he confirmed that he will ride it and he considers one or two other classics. He has not much experience with classics but earned a podium spot at the Flèche Wallonne after his first try.
I think he has a chance to win it this year because he knows where he made a mistake that cost him the win in 2010. I'm sure he won't make that mistake again. That's why I think he has a chance to win. He also rounded out the top ten at LBL. And helped Vino fighting his rivials by disturbing them. And you can be sure that he won't do that 2011. There were already problems between him and Vino and he had to negotiate with Bjarne Riis secretly. If he'd ride LBL he can earn a better result. His 10th place last year wasn't bad for a rider with no experience. Let's see what will come.

First try of riding for a win maybe. 3x Fleche and 3x Liege may not seem like much experience but Schleck for example did just one edition more of each.

It's very likely that Contador will win the Fleche though. And Gilbert will win Amstel. Liege is the only race difficult to predict right now but we'll have a better idea after the first two races are done.

 

[The Hitch]

I actually find it far easier to predict who will win the Ardennes classics in 2012.

And 5 months later he will become the first and only person ever to win 4 Ardennes classics in one year.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

You're really confident of Mollema.

 

[The Hitch]

You're really confident of Mollema.

I like the way you do that every time I tip the caped crusader for the 012 Worlds

 

[taiwan]

I actually find it far easier to predict who will win the Ardennes classics in 2012.

And 5 months later he will become the first and only person ever to win 4 Ardennes classics in one year.

Do you mean Piti? Seriously, who?

 

[mulletCobra]

Do you mean Piti? Seriously, who?

Lance Armstrong

 

[ergmonkey]

Katusha to do a unprescedented ( i think) 3 man clean sweep (more impressive than Rebellin).

As for being unprecedented, you may be right.

In 1994, Team Gewiss-Ballan-Ferrari took out Milan-San Remo, Fleche Wallone, and Liege-Bastogne-Liege, but Amstel Gold went to Museeuw that year.

 

[ergmonkey]

You're really confident of Mollema.

Why wouldn't one be?

Team politics and/or crashes are really the only things standing in the way of the otherwise irrepressible talent that is TGBM.

 

[The Hitch]

Do you mean Piti? Seriously, who?

Valverde wants blood. In more ways than one.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Valverde never did a good sprint on the Cauberg. Seemed the climb doesn't suit him.
And apart from his one win in Fleche Wallone, he never really could confirm in that race afterwards.

So... I don't see him winning the Ardennes triple, in one year, that quickly. Let stand the worlds in Valkenburg, which is full of that one climb that didn't suit him that well, the Cauberg.

 

[Tom T.]

Look at the Top 10 of Pais Vasco right now and you'll see some of the guys who will be duking it out for the wins in the Ardennes. Throw in Cuddles, Phil and Contador (for FW) to round out the field. Should be great racing as a lot of guys seem to be coming into great form at the same time.

 

[El Pistolero]

Looking at Pais Vasco they all seem in real poor form to me. Except Vino, at least he could get a time gap lol.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Looking at Pais Vasco they all seem in real poor form to me. Except Vino, at least he could get a time gap lol.

Trolololololololol.

(there was headwind on the climb yesterday, eg -> nobody could get a gap. Similar to your Phillie boy who can never HOLD a gap)

 

[Lanark]

Yeah, look at the big names that get dropped in Pais Vasco regularly. Even someone like Schleck, who just won the Criterium International, is struggling every day. You can't say that guys like Samuel Sanchez and Horner aren't in top shape now, this is a big goal for them. There is not one superman in Pais Vasco, a lot of guys in good to great shape, but nobody who is really much better than the rest, combined with the terrible heat, no one can really make a difference.

 

[taiwan]

Going by performance in the Pays Basque, you could easily see one of the Schack veterans gting a victory in the Ardennes, although they wouldn't be the first ones I'd think of.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

More Andy than Fränk though.

Fränk hasn't exactly impressed me this Tour. Blown himself and the team up a quite a few times.

Andy however has never been this good in this period. Now he's with or near the strongest every stage. Combined with the obvious increase in form he'll have next week, he will be one of the best in the Ardennes... I'm sure of that.

 

[El Pistolero]

Look at the Top 10 of Pais Vasco right now and you'll see some of the guys who will be duking it out for the wins in the Ardennes. Throw in Cuddles, Phil and Contador (for FW) to round out the field. Should be great racing as a lot of guys seem to be coming into great form at the same time.

Trolololololololol.

(there was headwind on the climb yesterday, eg -> nobody could get a gap. Similar to your Phillie boy who can never HOLD a gap)

At least he can win.

Cunego, Di Luca, etc all seem to be terrible out of shape. Unless you expect Klöden to be up there in LBL Pais Vasco is a lousy indicator of form.

There was also headwind on the climb at Geelong. Didn't stop Phil from taking a 40 sec gap on the rest. And unlike Geelong Pais Vasco has either uphill finishes or very close ascends/descends near the finish.

 

[theyoungest]

More Andy than Fränk though.

Fränk hasn't exactly impressed me this Tour. Blown himself and the team up a quite a few times.

Andy however has never been this good in this period. Now he's with or near the strongest every stage. Combined with the obvious increase in form he'll have next week, he will be one of the best in the Ardennes... I'm sure of that.

Ah, there he is again with the Fränk bashing... surely Fränk has been more impressive than Andy in Pais Vasco. But you don't expect Andy to do anything outside of the Tour and the Ardennes classics, maybe that's why Andy has impressed you more. That, and the fact that whatever Fränk Schleck does, you think it's a fluke.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Fränk is more than a minute back. Andy sits at 18 seconds.

Meh, I know enough. Andy simply looked better and is better. Period.

 

[theyoungest]

Fränk is more than a minute back. Andy sits at 18 seconds.

Meh, I know enough. Andy simply looked better and is better. Period.

Having enough left in the tank to attack, and stick with the favourites when you're caught (on the climb at least) means having a worse form than not being able to do so? Right.

Andy will no doubt be stronger in the Ardennes, and he has never looked better in a preparation race, but your underrating of Fränk is just funny.

 

[Havetts]

Andy sure did attack at the end of the climb / descent, dont know if you saw it. Frank overestimated himself I guess..

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Having enough left in the tank to attack, and stick with the favourites when you're caught (on the climb at least) means having a worse form than not being able to do so? Right.

Andy will no doubt be stronger in the Ardennes, and he has never looked better in a preparation race, but your underrating of Fränk is just funny.

Your overrating of F.Schleck is much funnier.