Armstrong's competition in his winning tours and losing tour

[auscyclefan94]

i have been wondering if armstrong was racing against the riders of 2006 to 2010 would he have been as sucessfull in the tour de france and have had as many tour wins (suggesting that other teams would of ridden more agresively)

i guess the question i'm trying to ask is that is Contador, Evans, Schleck, valverde, sastre better than Zulle, pantani, ullrich, beloki or basso.

Yes or No? and Why?

 

[Cerberus]

i have been wondering if armstrong was racing against the riders of 2006 to 2010 would he have been as sucessfull in the tour de france and have had as many tour wins (suggesting that other teams would of ridden more agresively)

i guess the question i'm trying to ask is that is Contador, Evans, Schleck, valverde, sastre better than Zulle, pantani, ullrich, beloki or basso.

Yes or No? and Why?

Evans, Valverde and Sastre definitely not. He actually did ride against Sastre and Evans and I can't see that they've improved enough to close that gap, not by a long shot. Schleck is good on climbs, but he'd loose a lot of time to LA on the TTs. He might improve enough in a few years that he could beat Armstrong in his prime, but current Andy against Armstrong in his prime I would put my money on Armstrong. I'd still be inclined to consider Armstrong in his prime a better TT than Contador 2009, but not by much and Contador climbs really well (better than Armstrong if power calculations are to be believed) so I could see Contador winning. I think LA in his prime would beat Contador 2007 easily though.

 

[Galic Ho]

Not a chance Lance would beat Contador if both were in their prime. We'll see why this year. Not the best hypothetical scenario either. I believe currently the riders Auscycle mentioned would all beat Lance at the Tour if they raced this year. But I feel Evans and Sastre are going for the Giro. Maybe not Evans, but Sastre is almost a guarantee for the podium in Italy. If Lance were to have been born, 5 even 8 years later, the whole dynamic changes, hence the bad hypothetical. So this can't be based on form then and now. Then, Lance beats them all, but Contador has that role now. Lance today, I think he beats none of them if they are aiming for GC and they don't have an issue.

The other part is to compare the GC winners now and their opposition. Beloki was great for two seasons, Pantani was better than Lance in 1999, but lost it all cause of his ban. Ullrich was solid for periods and so was Zulle. In terms of analysing how those guys rate next to Lance and how the others rate next to Contador, they are about equal. Going on winning margins, Contador has had some close wins, so to Lance, but there are also the wins by significant margins.

Changing the hypothetical facets, if Lance had have kept racing, the idiots would have let him run amock. Not because he was better in 2005 and hypothetically in 2006 would have been similar, but because the race dynamics were Disco dictated terms and everyone followed suite. Noted exception to CSC, but Sastre wouldn't have beaten Lance, assuming Puerto happened and Basso was out. Look at 2006 and Pereirro. That wouldn't have occured a year earlier. So Lance could have won in 2006, but not 2007. Rasmussen was on fire. He'd have been hurt in the hills. He might have gotten second or third, but wouldn't have gotten 3 minutes on the Chicken that he had when he was banned. In this scenario, he would not have been kicked out. Take out Vino's crash and he'd have beaten Lance to. No need to even ask if he'd have beaten Evans let alone AC that year. Rasmussen would have won. Then 2008 changes. See how dynamics fluctuate. Would Contador have been on Disco? I doubt it. Would Disco transfer over to Astana? Nope. Sponsor would have remained or another found. Everything changes and then we can't use the actual race conditions to find an answer for 2006, 2007 and 2008. Hypotheticals of this nature are far too complex.

What we can say without a doubt, is that for 2009 what we have seen is Lance can't rely on his team to break everyone. They don't break the Schlecks and they didn't even faze Contador. Lance also can't rely on his famous ITT. That is his biggest misfire. Plus the race is no longer designed for Disco/Shack only. Beloki and Ullrich were better or equal to Lance and suffered because of course design. So to Mayo and Heras because of team strategy and who they worked for. So the competition is even for both periods, I think slightly better for positions between 3-7 these days. I for one will be shocked if Lance beats Evans, Valverde and others I've mentioned on other threads this year. He won't come close to the Schlecks and Contador in the mountains and will not go in front of Evans or Valverde in a chrono. He'll be lucky to stay with them this year. I think a simpler way is to ask is the competition amongst the top ten harder now. Most would say a solid yes.

 

[ak-zaaf]

Contador in his prime vs. Lance in his prime would be close I guess. A well-trained sachertorte free Ullrich in his prime would beat both those guys to a pulp, but that goes without saying.

2006 & 2008 we're very very weak years IMO.

 

[movingtarget]

Armstrong's Competition

I think Armstrong at his peak would have beaten Contador. Better time triallist, better tactician, mentally stronger and almost as good in the mountains. But has Contador peaked yet ? It's hard to draw a line through previous adversaries and the current crop. The previous ones mentioned, Ullrich, Pantani etc were either outclassed, just about all juiced to the eyeballs, retired with a shadow hanging over their heads or dead and disgraced. But would Armstrong have been as good without Bruyneel ? As a team they were unbeatable until last year.

Armstrong previously raced against Menchov, Evans, Sastre, Valverde and Frank Schleck and I don't think any of those riders peaked until after Armstrong retired but I cannot see any of them winning a future Tour De France either. Their chances have gone. Contador will win the Tour again this year but I hope that he is pushed and that the race is closer than last year's. Somehow I doubt it. He is much better rider than he was two years ago. Most of the others are not except for Andy Schleck who still has to improve his time trialling in a big way to have any hope at all. Valverde's team mate Sanchez and Robert Gesink should be improvers too but neither is versatile enough to push Contador at the moment. I tend to think that only younger riders than Contador will push him in the next few years but at this stage none of them have his ability or strength and those riders are yet to emerge as real contenders.

 

[pmcg76]

Seriously, I thought we were trying to keep the Lance threads to the minimum. They are staring to appear again, lets keep it all in the Lance thread. This poll is a bit pointless anyway, cannot compare different races over different generations.

 

[kurtinsc]

The only question is Contador and Andy.

Sastre, Leipheimer, Basso, Valverde, Kloden... all were there in years Lance won. All of them were defeated pretty easily. While some of them might have improved a bit from 2004 and 2005 to 2008 and 2009... Lance was winning those races by 4-6 minutes over second place.

I'll say this now... Lance as he rode last year would have been in the mix for 1st in 2008. Sastre winning doesn't mean he was a lot better then in 2004... it shows the field was a lot worse.

I do think Lance would have had a tougher time racing against Contador. Contador is a lot better then any of the competition Lance had... he essentially IS what Lance was in those years and what Indurain was before Lance. But Lance riding against the other competition (say in place of Contador rather then against Contador) would do about the same.

 

[BYOP88]

I think Armstrong at his peak would have beaten Contador. Better time triallist, better tactician, mentally stronger and almost as good in the mountains.

You really believe that or you posted it for a laugh?

 

[bianchigirl]

Certainly the best laugh I've had all day. That and the comment about Armstrong 'outclassing' Ullrich.

However, as pmcg says it's apples and oranges - but one thing I do know is that I'm more excited about seeing what the current crop of riders will do than I have been since 1997

 

[Anonymous]

Seriously, I thought we were trying to keep the Lance threads to the minimum. They are staring to appear again, lets keep it all in the Lance thread. This poll is a bit pointless anyway, cannot compare different doctors over different generations.

and now comes the ridiculous warning about changing others' words even though it's perfectly clear what was changed and by whom....

 

[ImmaculateKadence]

It's hard to compare riders a decade apart. I think overall the competition was better, but AC might be better than them all.

The question I'm asking myself is would Ullrich, Pantani, Beloki, etc have been better if they were riding with tech from today.

 

[Publicus]

As much as I like debating and discussing, I've always thought these generational comparisons were an exercise in futility. That being said, I think great deal of what made Armstrong largely unbeatable is that he psychologically OWNED most of the other GT contenders of his era. If he had continued racing in 2006, I expect he would have won once again--simply because he was still the Boss of the Peloton.

Similarly, I think, psychologically speaking, AC OWNS this current generation (including Andy Schleck (notwithstanding his comments to the contrary)), but in a different way. He doesn't use intimidation tactics like Lance did. Perhaps Wiggins said it the best after the Arcalis Stage:

I think everyone had the fear of god when he went, because it's Alberto. Everyone went, better not go with Alberto.

Perhaps it is a distinction without a difference. In any event, I prefer thinking of Armstrong as the most dominate TdF stage racer from 1999-2005, and AC as the most dominant stage racer from 2008-???

 

[Angliru]

Publicus, love that Wiggins quote!

As far as the thread topic, I'd have to agree with biancigirl with whom I seldom disagree with. This is likely the most talented collection of contenders to enter the Tour in quite awhile.

The balance of young up and coming Tour contenders (Nibali, Kreuziger, Gesink, Soler);established/reaching their prime riders (Contador, Andy Scheck, Frank Schleck); veterans who still have a bit in the tank (Armstrong, Evans, Menchov, Sastre, Leipheimer, Kloeden, Vande Velde, Wiggins) and the riders that just may emerge as grand tour contending talents (Tony Martin, Daniel Martin, Rui Costa, Rigoberto Uran, Brice Feilu).

This could prove to be one of the most competitive Tours as far as the jockeying for position in the GC, not necessarily for the top step of the podium, which I reserve for Contador with Andy Schleck and Armstrong battling for 2nd.

 

[Polish]

If a 27 year old Alberto raced the 27 year old Lance in 1999, Lance would have left Alberto behind as he did Zulle.

If a 38 year year old Alberto raced a 38 year old Lance in 2010, Lance would kick **** again. (38yr old Alberto will probably have a pot belly and be racing cars like 38yr old LeMond did)

A 33 year old Lance beat a 22year old Alberto by over an hour in the 2005 TdF.

A 26 year old Alberto beat a 37 year old geezer Lance by only 5 minutes in 2009.

Lance commented at the beginning of his comeback that he thought the current competition was not suberb. He had defeated them all previously.(He made some "derrogatory" comments about some of the riders who podiumed in his absence IIRC...)

2006...Oscar/Kloden/Sastre, Honorable Mention Floyd
2007...Alberto/Cadel/Levi, Honorable mention Rassmussen
2008...Sastre/Cadel/None

 

[BYOP88]

If a 27 year old Alberto raced the 27 year old Lance in 1999, Lance would have left Alberto behind as he did Zulle.

If a 38 year year old Alberto raced a 38 year old Lance in 2010, Lance would kick **** again. (38yr old Alberto will probably have a pot belly and be racing cars like 38yr old LeMond did)

A 33 year old Lance beat a 22year old Alberto by over an hour in the 2005 TdF.

A 26 year old Alberto beat a 37 year old geezer Lance by only 5 minutes in 2009.

Lance commented at the beginning of his comeback that he thought the current competition was not suberb. He had defeated them all previously.(He made some "derrogatory" comments about some of the riders who podiumed in his absence IIRC...)

2006...Oscar/Kloden/Sastre, Honorable Mention Floyd
2007...Alberto/Cadel/Levi, Honorable mention Rassmussen
2008...Sastre/Cadel/None

Yes a good point, but lets not forget it was Contador's debut TdF and he was probably in some form working for Heras, and without looking I'm guessing when Lance finished his 1st TdF(was it his 2nd or 3rd start before he finished) he was about the same time behind Big Mig.

EDIT: In 2005 Contador finished 31st 1'03''25 behind Armstrong. In 1995 Armstrong in his 3rd TdF start but 1st finish ended up 36th and 1'28''06 behind Big Mig. Again as i said Armstrong probably had a free reign in his team and Contador possibly had to do some work for his team leader(not sure about that maybe someone who watched the 95 Tour could confirm or deny that).

 

[Publicus]

If a 27 year old Alberto raced the 27 year old Lance in 1999, Lance would have left Alberto behind as he did Zulle.

If a 38 year year old Alberto raced a 38 year old Lance in 2010, Lance would kick **** again. (38yr old Alberto will probably have a pot belly and be racing cars like 38yr old LeMond did)

A 33 year old Lance beat a 22year old Alberto by over an hour in the 2005 TdF.

A 26 year old Alberto beat a 37 year old geezer Lance by only 5 minutes in 2009.

Lance commented at the beginning of his comeback that he thought the current competition was not suberb. He had defeated them all previously.(He made some "derrogatory" comments about some of the riders who podiumed in his absence IIRC...)

2006...Oscar/Kloden/Sastre, Honorable Mention Floyd
2007...Alberto/Cadel/Levi, Honorable mention Rassmussen
2008...Sastre/Cadel/None

This is some funny stuff. Thanks Polish, you always score high on the unintentional comedy scale.

 

[ak-zaaf]

If a 27 year old Alberto raced the 27 year old Lance in 1999, Lance would have left Alberto behind as he did Zulle.

Passage du Gois is a *****.

 

[pmcg76]

If a 27 year old Alberto raced the 27 year old Lance in 1999, Lance would have left Alberto behind as he did Zulle.

If a 38 year year old Alberto raced a 38 year old Lance in 2010, Lance would kick **** again. (38yr old Alberto will probably have a pot belly and be racing cars like 38yr old LeMond did)

A 33 year old Lance beat a 22year old Alberto by over an hour in the 2005 TdF.

A 26 year old Alberto beat a 37 year old geezer Lance by only 5 minutes in 2009.

Lance commented at the beginning of his comeback that he thought the current competition was not suberb. He had defeated them all previously.(He made some "derrogatory" comments about some of the riders who podiumed in his absence IIRC...)

2006...Oscar/Kloden/Sastre, Honorable Mention Floyd
2007...Alberto/Cadel/Levi, Honorable mention Rassmussen
2008...Sastre/Cadel/None

And how did a 21/22/23/24 year old Lance do in the Tour. Oh, thats right absolute ****ing ****. He was a nobody, christ could only finish once outside the top 30. God, this is pointless.

 

[ErmOkk]

And how did a 21/22/23/24 year old Lance do in the Tour. Oh, thats right absolute ****ing ****. He was a nobody, christ could only finish once outside the top 30. God, this is pointless.

Lance was a fatty imo in his early years so making points from that isn't kinda right. Making comparisons from a 22 year old AC is also pointless, I remember him coming in the camera once, on ax-3 domaines I believe, he looked like a thin teenager, so it's quite absurd as well . I think the competition was equal, eventhough we can't know since they didn't race together.

 

[pmcg76]

Lance was a fatty imo in his early years so making points from that isn't kinda right. Making comparisons from a 22 year old AC is also pointless, I remember him coming in the camera once, on ax-3 domaines I believe, he looked like a thin teenager, so it's quite absurd as well . I think the competition was equal, eventhough we can't know since they didn't race together.

My point exactly and wasnt Indurain a bit of a fatty at 80kg, didnt stop him from winning 7 GTs. See, it just gets more pointless.

 

[kurtinsc]

And how did a 21/22/23/24 year old Lance do in the Tour. Oh, thats right absolute ****ing ****. He was a nobody, christ could only finish once outside the top 30. God, this is pointless.

Well... he was a 175-180 pound 1-day racer rather then a 160-165 pound grand tour rider. At 22 he won the World Championships, won a stage at the Tour, and won the million dollar prize for sweeping the thrift drug races. At 23 he finished second at Liege and Fleche Wallone. At 24 he won another tour stage, and san sebastian. At 25 he won Fleche Wallone, then lost half the season to cancer.

It is pointless... but people do need to remember that Lance as looking to be one of the better classics riders before the cancer hit... he never had a career as a young GT rider... when he was young he was more like a Gilbert or Ballan searching for stages in grand tours.

 

[pmcg76]

Well... he was a 175-180 pound 1-day racer rather then a 160-165 pound grand tour rider. At 22 he won the World Championships, won a stage at the Tour, and won the million dollar prize for sweeping the thrift drug races. At 23 he finished second at Liege and Fleche Wallone. At 24 he won another tour stage, and san sebastian. At 25 he won Fleche Wallone, then lost half the season to cancer.

It is pointless... but people do need to remember that Lance as looking to be one of the better classics riders before the cancer hit... he never had a career as a young GT rider... when he was young he was more like a Gilbert or Ballan searching for stages in grand tours.

Further proof of where this thread is headed. Indurain was heavier than Lance, didnt prevent him from winning GTs so we can keep going round and round.

 

[Race Radio]

Well... he was a 175-180 pound 1-day racer rather then a 160-165 pound grand tour rider. At 22 he won the World Championships, won a stage at the Tour, and won the million dollar prize for sweeping the thrift drug races. At 23 he finished second at Liege and Fleche Wallone. At 24 he won another tour stage, and san sebastian. At 25 he won Fleche Wallone, then lost half the season to cancer.

It is pointless... but people do need to remember that Lance as looking to be one of the better classics riders before the cancer hit... he never had a career as a young GT rider... when he was young he was more like a Gilbert or Ballan searching for stages in grand tours.

While this myth sounds good those of us who actually followed the sport in the 90's know that it is BS.

Lance, the overweight cyclist. 1995. When he was second at LBL he weighed 163 pounds, not 175.

 

[BroDeal]

Well... he was a 175-180 pound 1-day racer rather then a 160-165 pound grand tour rider. At 22 he won the World Championships, won a stage at the Tour, and won the million dollar prize for sweeping the thrift drug races. At 23 he finished second at Liege and Fleche Wallone. At 24 he won another tour stage, and san sebastian. At 25 he won Fleche Wallone, then lost half the season to cancer.

It is pointless... but people do need to remember that Lance as looking to be one of the better classics riders before the cancer hit... he never had a career as a young GT rider... when he was young he was more like a Gilbert or Ballan searching for stages in grand tours.

The only time Armstrong looked like he might be "one of the better classics riders" was after he became a client of Dr. Ferrari.

 

[progressor]

If a 27 year old Alberto raced the 27 year old Lance in 1999, Lance would have left Alberto behind as he did Zulle.

If a 38 year year old Alberto raced a 38 year old Lance in 2010, Lance would kick **** again. (38yr old Alberto will probably have a pot belly and be racing cars like 38yr old LeMond did)

A 33 year old Lance beat a 22year old Alberto by over an hour in the 2005 TdF.

A 26 year old Alberto beat a 37 year old geezer Lance by only 5 minutes in 2009.

Probably the fairest discussion of LA vs Contador (and Others) in months and you have to post sh!!e like this to inflame it all again.