Attacking Early vs Attacking Late

[rzombie1988]

After watching some older races and checking out today's Giro, we got a discussion going on in another thread about the pro's/cons of attacking early or late in a GT.

My thoughts are that riders should attack as early as possible in weeks one and two of tours. It gives them a chance to attack when they are more fresh, it gives them an oppurtunity to take an early lead and it gives them a safety net incase their attack fails, as there will be other days ahead.

After thinking about it, alot of guys have won GT's more from their early exploits than their later exploits. Take Contador last year at the Giro. He had it pretty much secured after a few mountain stages while others were practicing track stands. Take Cadel from last year. He attacked early and had a great opening week, which let off some of the pressure during the later weeks and helped him win. We could also mention Lance in 2005 who took care of buisness early and had it wrapped up.

Attacking late also has a case too. It's great to put in that final nail in the coffin to seal off your competitors. Theoretically, all of your competitors should be the most wiped out at the end of a tour, so an attack might work. But the big problem is, what if it doesn't? We've seen tons of guys over the years who tried to use the last day on a tour to attack who have failed. And once they do fail? No dice as the tours over.

Looking forward to hearing your thoughts.

 

[LaFlorecita]

I don't know what's better, but I do know attacking early is so much more exciting.

 

[Another_Dutch_Guy]

It depends. Looking at your examples: Contador and Lance were clearly the best of the field, and therefore attacked early. They do this to make their advantage against their competitors big as possible. This may be helpful later in the case of a flat tire or a fringale.

Then the case of Evans. Do you really think that he attacked in the first week? I would earlier call is riding attendive. Which is necessary to win a grand Tour.

Then the examples of late attacks. Cobo in the Vuelta, or Sastre in the Tour. They didn't know they were the strongest earlier, and therefore didn't waste energy on attacking before.

So. When you are clearly the strongest: attack early. And otherwise, be attendive and attack only when you believe this is your best shot at a victory.

 

[rzombie1988]

Cadel was in the top 5 on five different stages up to stage 14 so yeah I'd say he attacked.

 

[simoni]

You make the run for home as early as you think you can get away with it. Its the same in running.

 

[fatsprintking]

You use the tactics in a given race which you feel give you the best chance of winning. This is going to change from race to race and be dependant on a riders strengths and weaknesses.

In a race where people are evenly matched, it is natural that there is a more conservative approach to the racing as riders fear that showing their cards might blow their chance. In a race where one rider is percieved to be superior, it is more liklely that they will attack early and then manage their advantage, but it is also maybe true that there is a sense of having less to lose for other riders so they may be more inclined to have a crack.

You also have to look at the fact that in races like the tour, the initial stages are run off at such a fast pace that all riders are pretty cooked after the first week, both physically and nerves wise due to trying to maintain a position at the front - this leads to a pretty defensive mindset from the start. Riders have also got much better at not only peaking for a particular race like the tour, but picking sections within the race to be in top for - ie the last week. Racing has become much more prescriptive due to science/radios/power meters etc and so spur of the moment attacks have become much less common.

The points systems used in recent years also have an effect on racing in that there is value in defending a position if you are in 5th instead of going for an all or nothing attack that might see a rider blow and drop 5-10 places.

Lastly, there seems to often be a pretty misguided assumption that riders are capable of attacking and dont as a tactical choice. Riders will attack if they can and defend if they must - if you are at your limit then you can't attack. Cadel is a good example of someone who people say changed his style of riding without getting the fact that he had improved from year to year and eventually reached the point where he could dictate the terms of races rather than to respond.

The grand tours are full of stories of riders who rode like a winner in the first 2weeks and then blew up when the chips were down - we just don't remember them cause they ended up finishing in in 68th. You have to remember this when suggesting that more people should ride like Contador.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

It really depends on how you've timed your form. If the course is backloaded and you're looking to peak late, then you want to bury yourself in the pack in the early race and stay as unnoticed as possible until the moment comes to go for it (like Sastre in '08), whereas if there are opportunities early and you're already in form, you'll not want to waste them (like Evans and Vino in the 2010 Giro).

Evans in '11 was a bit of a special case; the course was backloaded, but the first week was so unselective it was a bit of an obstacle course, with everybody wanting to be up there and having something to protect making the peloton nervous. Evans did a better job than most of keeping himself out of trouble, and took advantage of a couple of stages that suited him early on, but the gains were minimal. However, as the racing was quite nervous, he made sure he was in the best position to profit if others made mistakes or crashed out (which they duly did), and still peaked for the final week (putting in his best TT in quite some time at the end with the pressure on).

When it comes to GTs, there's no right or wrong regarding attacking early or attacking late; the course, the team you have around you (no point attacking early with a weak team if you then have to defend the jersey for two weeks), the form of other GC contenders as well as yourself.