Battle for green

[Cerberus]

I think Ciolek and Roche (+ Breschel should be but he will be only domestic if he will ride) will be both very good. Anyway Oscar Freire is my bet.

I like Breschel and he's really good in cobbled races based on how he did this year, but he's just not a contender for the Green Jersey? Breschel just isn't that good a sprinter. Certainly he can win small races, but how many sprint wins does Breschel have in bunch sprints against top level sprinters? I don't think he has any. He did win the last stage of the Vuelta in 2008 I think, but most of the best sprinter had left the race by then or missed a split

 

[Potomac]

I thought I better review last year's standings:

1. HUSHOVD Thor 6 CERVELO TEST TEAM 280 pts
2. CAVENDISH Mark 71 TEAM COLUMBIA - HTC 270 pts
3. CIOLEK Gerald 182 TEAM MILRAM 172 pts
4. ROJAS Jose Joaquin 117 CAISSE D’EPARGNE 145 pts
5. FARRAR Tyler 53 GARMIN - SLIPSTREAM 136 pts
6. ROCHE Nicolas 89 AG2R LA MONDIALE 122 pts
7. FREIRE Oscar 44 RABOBANK 119 pts
8. PELLIZOTTI Franco 91 LIQUIGAS 104 pts
9. CONTADOR Alberto 21 ASTANA 101 pts
10. KLÖDEN Andréas 23 ASTANA 89 pts

I think I'll stick with Thor for first place.

I don't think Cav will finish the tour this year.

Farrar has improved, so I think he will improve his position but not enough to really threaten.

Boonen? Who knows? I don't think he's enough of a sprinter anymore to take the jersey.

 

[battery89]

Hoping Ciolek/Haussler (if Cervelo ride for him).

 

[Anonymous]

I honestly havnt got a clue..

Cav doesnt look close to being the rider he was last year and neither do columbia (but ive no doubt come the tour columbias lead out will be back to its devestating best

Hushovd as been up and down, illness hasnt helped, but I just dont see him doing it.

Boonen.. Awful performance in the tour last year. Might feel he has something to prove.

EbH.. not got enough, will pick up points by consistent finishing but not enough. I just cant see sky doing what it needs on the flat stages for him.

Ferrar.. honestly, I think hes overrated.

Ciolek.. Another one who seems to have lost a few yards.. Can see him maybe winning a stage, but he could be first one day and tenth the next.. Not consistent enough for me.

So in conclusion.. erm.. I dont think anyone is going to win it BUt if pushed, Im going to stick my neck out and say Tom Boonen is going to surprise everyone. I think the first week suits him. Should rack up some points.

This thread really needs a poll.. Nominees?

1/Cavendish
2/EBH
3/Boonen
4/Ferrar
5/Huschovd
6/Hausller
7/Ciolek
8/Freire
9/??????????????
10/Someone else

Who else?

 

[chamois]

This thread really needs a poll.. Nominees?

1/Cavendish
2/EBH
3/Boonen
4/Ferrar
5/Huschovd
6/Hausller
7/Ciolek
8/Freire
9/??????????????
10/Someone else

Who else?

what about allan davis? he's riding for astana, but maybe he'll get some chances on the flats. jose joaquin rojas, robbie mcewen, benatti or petacchi (if they don't follow the great italian tradition of showing up lame). peter sagan may surprise. without real gc guys van avermaet (lotto) or duque (cofidis) could get some team help.

with some withdrawls and strong TT and mountain top finishes, i see contador in the top 5 also.

these are all outside picks, but they're safe bets to round out a top 10.

 

[ttrider]

If Nicholas Roche goes for it by really hunting points at every opportunity with the tough stages eliminating sprinters i think he could podium in green jersey, afterall he was 6th last year

 

[ingsve]

I think one key factor is what teams will build a team around their sprinter and have the green jersey as a main goal. EBH won't win green in his first Tour in a team that is set on having Wiggins on the podium. Liquigas will also have too much invested in GC for Bennati or Chicchi etc to have a shot at green. Same goes for Allan Davis in Astana and Breschel in Saxo Bank.

HTC Columbia will certainly have a team to support Cavendish as best they can. Garmin will support Farrar as best they can as well since they only have CVV as a real top 10 possibility in GC so they can't build a team around GC. Milram also doesn't have a big GC favourite to build around so Ciolek will get the backup.

Looking at the preliminary squad for Cervélo it seems they might have a double goal team again this year depending on if Sastre rides. They could have had a team totally focused on green but it seems they won't.

My prediction is that it's going to be a race between Cavendish and Farrar with Ciolek and Hushovd/Haussler as outsiders.

I haven't seen anything said about the french teams but I can't really see what sprinter there that would be able to compete for green.

 

[Cerberus]

If Nicholas Roche goes for it by really hunting points at every opportunity with the tough stages eliminating sprinters i think he could podium in green jersey, afterall he was 6th last year

6th with less than half the points that Cavendish and Hushovd had. When was the last time someone who wasn't a top sprinter won the Green? I don't think that Roche, or Breschel, or Allan Davis or many of the other names being thrown around have any real chance. Not because they lack team support, but simply because they can't win enough points in the bunch sprints. Hushovd won the green last year but going hunting for points, but he also got a lot of points in the bunch sprints. Without those point going hunting for more would have been useless.

 

[Silhouette]

You need consistency to win the green jersey. You don't have to be the fastest sprinter, but you need to be one of the fastest and you need to avoid having more than one bad stage.

You don't win the green jersey by winning a stage, but missing out of the points in 1-2 of the flat/semi-flat stages can be enough to lose it.

I wonder who Cervelo will race for. Last year they had Haussler up in the sprints sometimes, but he didn't really do anything for Hushovd. I wonder if Hushovd will ride for Haussler this year if he doesn't feel good enough to sprint himself?

Last year we had Hushovd vs Cavendish. This year we might have 5-6 sprinters in a close competition, or we might see someone (Cav? Haussler?) dominating without any real competition.

 

[Shardi]

Tommeke, Tyler, Edvald.

 

[Jamsque]

I wonder if Robbie McEwen might be in the mix. He seems to be on pretty good form right now and has finally got his kick back after that horrible knee injury, and I can see him doing what Friere did two years ago and winning it by being up there in the top five pretty much every day without an uphill finish, even if he doesn't win many stages.

 

[tgsgirl]

If Tombo manages to grab points in the Roubaix and Spa stages, he has a good chance. If he's not in the mix after the first week or so he'll probably pick his stages and sit in the bunch for others.

 

[auscyclefan94]

I have a feeling Ciolek will win a few stages and take the jersey. He is very quick but always positions badly.

 

[Four Winds]

I fancy a bet on Oscar Freire. looking good in TdS and definitely consitent.

 

[MADRAZO]

Jose Joaquin Rojas Gil will do very well this year in the Pointscompetition. Last year he was 4. despite not being in topshape and also despite crashing hard during the TDF handicapping him some. This year his build up has not been spoiled by crashes and he is very stabile in the sprints and by far the best climbing sprinter in the peloton. If there is no real dominant sprinters this year he could even win it and he will most likely be in top 3 I think.

 

[taiwan]

Cavendish, Farrar definitely, Boasson Hagen if he's going to have a free role, and Hushovd wil be in contention I think. Ciolek, Van Avermaet may get involved. Boonen and Freire: I don't think they'll bother riding every single day for another green jersey.

 

[Barrus]

Allright the green jersey battle is getting duller and duller, not only is Boonen out, Haussler is out now as well. Gues as long as Cav finishes he is almost assured of green

 

[The Hitch]

Allright the green jersey battle is getting duller and duller, not only is Boonen out, Haussler is out now as well. Gues as long as Cav finishes he is almost assured of green

why is boonen out?

 

[jaylew]

Both out with knee problems

 

[peloton]

why is boonen out?

because of his injured knee, the Cav crash at TdS made it worse (same with Haussler btw.).

 

[Anonymous]

because of his injured knee, the Cav crash at TdS made it worse (same with Haussler btw.).

Originally hurt in california

Huschovd still going, or has cav arranged for him to be beaten up in a back alley somewhere

 

[Flashheart]

Thank you Cav

 

[zapata]

Originally hurt in california

Huschovd still going, or has cav arranged for him to be beaten up in a back alley somewhere

Hushovd recently broke his collarbone crashing into a "little girl" while training. This "little girl" miraculously escaped unscathed, two fingers up in the air, and grinning with a full set of beautifully tended teeth.

 

[Rocksteady]

Cav will have full support so should be near the top. Hushovd should be too, but neither should be as good as last year. I Tip Farrar just because I like him but I would watch out for McEwen. He should have his full team behind him as they have no real shot at GC glory.

 

[zapata]

Cav will have full support so should be near the top. Hushovd should be too, but neither should be as good as last year. I Tip Farrar just because I like him but I would watch out for McEwen. He should have his full team behind him as they have no real shot at GC glory.

I think Rodriguez has about the same chance for yellow as McEwen has for green. Very small.