Bill Strickland (Bicycling magazine): Why Lance will win

[180mmCrank]

Quoting the article...

"In other words, if Big Boy weighs 78 kilograms (171 pounds) and can generate 430 watts for a 20-minute climb, his PWR is 5.5 watts/kg. Little Man, on the other hand, might generate 380 watts - 50 watts less than Big Boy-for the same 20-minute climb. However, if Little Man weighs 68 kilograms (150 pounds), his PWR would be 5.6 watts/kg and he'd stay with or reach the summit of the climb before Big Boy, despite generating less power. "

So if big boy takes 55 mins to climb Mont Ventoux and little man rides at 85% his normal power output because of team orders until half way up the climb how long would it take little man to catch big boy riding at full power for the remainder of climb? And will it be enough to overcome the ITT deficit if both have ridden at full power?

I think I'll just watch it on the TV

 

[Anonymous]

Ability don't enter into it.

Astana the sponsor is threatening, in effect, to take its ball away from Bruyneel's Olympus sarl set-up.

If Bruyneel and Armstrong want to pull in a sponsor for a well-funded a team next year they need a Tour winner for the future.

Contador is presumably going to want to ride for a team next year that has demonstrated its willingness and ability to support him to GT and especially TdF wins.

Bruyneel and Armstrong therefore need to make sure Contador wins this year.

 

[runninboy]

Ability don't enter into it.

Astana the sponsor is threatening, in effect, to take its ball away from Bruyneel's Olympus sarl set-up.

If Bruyneel and Armstrong want to pull in a sponsor for a well-funded a team next year they need a Tour winner for the future.

Contador is presumably going to want to ride for a team next year that has demonstrated its willingness and ability to support him to GT and especially TdF wins.

Bruyneel and Armstrong therefore need to make sure Contador wins this year.

But what about if Armstrong & Bruyneel are planning on taking their show to an American team. You can draw an American Sponsor with an American TDF winner & leave behind Vino, Astana & the whole mess?
think of Col. It would reunite LA w GH, Martin would be good support in the mountains for LA, Mick Rogers ditto then add Horner, would still be a great leadout train for CAV maybe even better adding horner & would be awesome TT squad.

 

[Mellow Velo]

But what about if Armstrong & Bruyneel are planning on taking their show to an American team. You can draw an American Sponsor with an American TDF winner & leave behind Vino, Astana & the whole mess?
think of Col. It would reunite LA w GH, Martin would be good support in the mountains for LA, Mick Rogers ditto then add Horner, would still be a great leadout train for CAV maybe even better adding horner & would be awesome TT squad.

Are the UCI planing to introduce a veteran's Pro Tour, then?
Lance, Big George, Horner and Leipheimer. Might as well stick Floyd in there, too.
Cav? Team Sky are already after him but he says he's going nowhere, staying with Columbia.

Now, what was my point?.......Oh yeah, I think it's time you guys started planning ahead.
Build a team around riders of Taylor Phinney's era, not those closer to Davis Phinney's.

 

[rhubroma]

It's one thing to be 38, entirely another to be a 38 year old cyclist trying to win the Tour against a 26 year old stud who is getting better as he becomes more seasoned.

In any case, I go with Hinault. Armstrong's age vs. Contador's makes it a no brainer, without the team factoring in. But because the team has become a problem for AC and font of hope for LA, we may have to wait for le Ventoux for the final word.

 

[LugHugger]

Ability don't enter into it.

Astana the sponsor is threatening, in effect, to take its ball away from Bruyneel's Olympus sarl set-up.

If Bruyneel and Armstrong want to pull in a sponsor for a well-funded a team next year they need a Tour winner for the future.

Contador is presumably going to want to ride for a team next year that has demonstrated its willingness and ability to support him to GT and especially TdF wins.

Bruyneel and Armstrong therefore need to make sure Contador wins this year.

I don't see Contador being part of either LA or JB's team next year given the hand bags that have been going on between the three all year. Imo, it serves JB better for LA to win.

 

[Amsterhammer]

Ability don't enter into it.

Astana the sponsor is threatening, in effect, to take its ball away from Bruyneel's Olympus sarl set-up.

If Bruyneel and Armstrong want to pull in a sponsor for a well-funded a team next year they need a Tour winner for the future.

Contador is presumably going to want to ride for a team next year that has demonstrated its willingness and ability to support him to GT and especially TdF wins.

Bruyneel and Armstrong therefore need to make sure Contador wins this year.

In the context of what I have put in bold, I'm surprised that not more has been made of the fact that LA spent the best part of an hour yesterday riding with, and talking to, Schleklet.

If LA is to be believed when he says that he'll be back for one more Tour, he and JB may be looking to put together a team that can help LA win next year, after which he finally retires for good and hands over the leadership of the new team to the young 'pretender', er, possibly Schleklet.

Just speculating....

 

[Zen Master]

In the context of what I have put in bold, I'm surprised that not more has been made of the fact that LA spent the best part of an hour yesterday riding with, and talking to, Schleklet.

If LA is to be believed when he says that he'll be back for one more Tour, he and JB may be looking to put together a team that can help LA win next year, after which he finally retires for good and hands over the leadership of the new team to the young 'pretender', er, possibly Schleklet.

Just speculating....

Sorry...But this is complete nonsense...

 

[Amsterhammer]

Sorry...But this is complete nonsense...

Speculation often is! Perhaps a refutation or elaboration on your part would contribute more to the discussion than merely calling my speculation nonsense?

 

[Zen Master]

Speculation often is! Perhaps a refutation or elaboration on your part would contribute more to the discussion than merely calling my speculation nonsense?

Ok forget about nonsense, would you be so kind and answer me just one thing: Why would Andy Schleck do this ?!?
Because if Andy Schleck goes to Nike-Livestrong then his role is to be a super-domestique for Lance in Tour next year or maybe I'm wrong ?!!

 

[Sheltowee]

Ok forget about nonsense, would you be so kind and answer me just one thing: Why would Andy Schleck do this ?!?
Because if Andy Schleck goes to Nike-Livestrong then his role is to be a super-domestique for Lance in Tour next year or maybe I'm wrong ?!!

No it isn't nonsense. I have a friend in France at the Tour who reported that she heard Johan B. was interested in getting baby Schleck. Wouldn't be the first time he and Armstrong went after one of Riijs' boys i.e. Basso.

 

[Mongol_Waaijer]

Just like paying Dr. Ferrari not to "train" anyone else is he now going to buy everyone who might be able to beat him and pay them millions to let him win?

The more this sh*t goes on the more disillusioned I become in the entire sport.

If it wasn't for the fact that I am not alone in my anger I would give up my interest altogether.

 

[Amsterhammer]

Ok forget about nonsense, would you be so kind and answer me just one thing: Why would Andy Schleck do this ?!?
Because if Andy Schleck goes to Nike-Livestrong then his role is to be a super-domestique for Lance in Tour next year or maybe I'm wrong ?!!

Ok, this is pure speculation, even in light of Sheltowee's subsequent response -

why would Schleklet even consider such a move? Maybe, just maybe he knows in his heart of hearts that he's not quite there yet as a serious contender for GC victory? Maybe a huge contract with a new team led by JB would be enticing if part of the contract stipulated that he would be LA's right hand man in his absolutely final Tour next year (not many better from whom to learn the stuff AS doesn't know yet) and that he would then be leader of the new team from 2011 with the full resources of that team backing him for the Tour?

Just speculating.

 

[Zen Master]

No it isn't nonsense. I have a friend in France at the Tour who reported that she heard Johan B. was interested in getting baby Schleck. Wouldn't be the first time he and Armstrong went after one of Riijs' boys i.e. Basso.

Nope !!?

Basso's contract with Team CSC was cancelled by mutual consent because Operation Puerto scandal.
And second question about Andy Schleck & Nike-Livestrong is: What about his brother Frank ?!

 

[Amsterhammer]

Nope !!?

Basso's contract with Team CSC was cancelled by mutual consent because Operation Puerto scandal.
And second question about Andy Schleck & Nike-Livestrong is: What about his brother Frank ?!

Are they Siamese twins? Does Frank have to go where Andy goes? (Serious question.) I'm sure that IF this speculative scenario were to actually play out, Frank would go along if Andy insisted that he wanted him.

 

[objective skeptic]

I don't see Contador being part of either LA or JB's team next year given the hand bags that have been going on between the three all year. Imo, it serves JB better for LA to win.

Anyone have a sense of the money involved?

I'm thinking Lance riding next year (all but guaranteed) brings in a huge, otherwise very marginal, US market. In subsequent years, running a LA-owned team might be fairly lucrative, as well.

I said the same thing about Levi and some other Astana riders. They go ride the LA gravy-train next year and they'll always find decent work elsewhere.

I don't know the money involved here. If these guys (and Bruyneel) stand to make 2-3X next year what they otherwise could make, then that probably makes-up for any small shortfall in post-Lance years.

Contador, obviously, will want to be "the man" on some other team. I believe he's under contract next year, so is it possible he gets "bought off" for one year? Take the Giro and the Vuelta, AC, and after next year it's all yours for what promises to be the strongest team in the tour.

AC puts in his contract that if Lance is still there in 2011 then he can opt to be a free agent. I don't know, if you're AC and think long-term it's not a slam-dunk to leave.

 

[Belokki]

as a Lance supporter I say: This is all a settup!! This media hype is all about tactics, He is tacking presure off Conti! Lance is a good actor, he proved it in the Alps in 2001! It's just like the Sastre-Schleck thing on D'Hez last year!

In the end the more capable rider(in Johans eyes) will win

 

[lediana]

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[blackcat]

I am new to this forum and find that the arguments for LA winning or losing the tour are interesting; however, everyone is assuming that LA's and Contador's climbing and time trial abilities are compared like they are climbing and or time trialing side by side. No one is taking into consideration tactics and which one will attack and will the other counter. Contador has already shown that etiquette is not as important as winning or even making a point, so there truly is no way to determine which one will win until one of them attacks. Will the other be able to follow? This brings back thoughts of '85 when Lemond was pulled back from the break to help Hinault. Who was truly the strongest that year? We can assume Lemond, but we will never know.

sorry, how about Armstrong and Bruyneel's etiquette. It was obvious from the day Armstrong came back, he treated AC from the school "keep one's friends close, and one's enemies closer".

 

[blackcat]

I am new to this forum and find that the arguments for LA winning or losing the tour are interesting; however, everyone is assuming that LA's and Contador's climbing and time trial abilities are compared like they are climbing and or time trialing side by side. No one is taking into consideration tactics and which one will attack and will the other counter. Contador has already shown that etiquette is not as important as winning or even making a point, so there truly is no way to determine which one will win until one of them attacks. Will the other be able to follow? This brings back thoughts of '85 when Lemond was pulled back from the break to help Hinault. Who was truly the strongest that year? We can assume Lemond, but we will never know.

sorry, how about Armstrong and Bruyneel's etiquette. It was obvious from the day Armstrong came back, he treated AC from the school "keep one's friends close, and one's enemies closer".

 

[Jonathan]

The original post was about a writer who predicted Armstrong to win. He was wrong, so logically the analysis was wrong. Has that person, with the benefit of hindsight, indicated where his analysis was off?

At the beginning of this tour, I never believed Armstrong would reach the podium (and I still don't, although today's stage favours tactically clever riders so he might gain a few seconds on guys like Wiggins and Klöden). That the internal rivalry within Astana turned out to be such a spectacle has surprised and disappointed me, however. I did not think Armstrong would let it get in the way of the team's primary goal: winning the tour. I had expected his personal strategy and the team's strategy would coincide more.