Cadel/BMC for TdF

[BroDeal]

I don't think he'd out gun the pure climbers aiming for the KOM. A stage win is more realistic.

The way to win the KOM is to rest in the autobus most days, and go in breaks during a few stages with big mountain points. That has been the pattern the winner has used for a long time now. Even Jalabert was able to succeed that way. Evans would have a good chance of succeeding.

 

[Sydney Sider]

it all depends on how evans fares really.
I mean, other then Evans, they were very poor in this giro.

still think it's a shame vasc. miss out.

Im going to miss Kenny showing the boys what true grit is

 

[Sasquatch]

It wouldn't surprise me if Lloyd goes for the KOM in the Tour.

 

[Sydney Sider]

It wouldn't surprise me if Lloyd goes for the KOM in the Tour.

I would love too see him have a go but it depends what faith Lotto want to put in VDB

 

[Christian]

it all depends on how evans fares really.
I mean, other then Evans, they were very poor in this giro.

Yup that's what I also think. I personally expect him to not be able to do much, because of his exceptional Giro. Therefore I don't see the point of him going there, and they could have invited Vacansoleil or Skil.

Burghardt and Hincapie are nice guys, good riders, but I wouldn't have missed them either, and they might get lucky and win a stage once but that's it. I think Ballan will do the best from BMC, especially in the beginning, but at the same time he's in no way a certain stage-winner (again: what will he be able to do without a good team, what will his form be after the break?).

It wouldn't surprise me if Lloyd goes for the KOM in the Tour.

I see the same problem as with Cadel here: I think there will be much fresher riders with a better form than Lloyd. But I mean it could still be that he goes for it, I just don't think he'll be able to win it. At the same time, the KOM is always a gamble, the least predictable of all jerseys I'd say

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I don't think Lloyd is a good enough climber to be KOM at both races. We must remember that the Giro is very stingy with its mountains points, with only the first three or four riders across the stripe getting points. Also, the first across the line gets proportionally more in comparison to second and third than in the Tour.

Also, Lloyd simply isn't an elite climber. He could hold the Tour KOM for a few days but he isn't going to win it. He won the Giro's KOM the same way Fabian Wegmann won it; hoovering up the 3s and 5s available for 2nd and 3rd category climbs, and breathing a sigh of relief that no major name went hunting for points the way Sella, Garzelli and Piepoli have done in recent years; the only names that seemed to want to challenge him were Tondó (ran out of steam in week 3) and Pozzovivo (dropped out in week 2), as they were the ones fighting him for the points in the stage 11 breakaway; Lloyd was also dropped before the last climb and it was up to Bakelants and de Greef to protect the points from Tondó. With the double-points available for MTFs in the Tour and the wider disparity between 1st and 2nd category climbs (16 and 10 points available for first rider) and 3rd and 4th category climbs (4 and 3 points available for first rider) it would be very, very difficult for Lloyd to duplicate that success.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Lloyd is a much better climber than Wegmann.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Never said he wasn't. But he DID win the KOM the same way Wegmann won it - by hoovering up the smaller climbs and hoping the GC candidates split the points on the larger ones.

 

[SpartacusRox]

A dutch politician suggested that the Giro should have podium-boys instead of girls in Amsterdam. First I thought it was ridiculous but he had a really good point: it would have worked against homophobia in sports and been a strong signals to homosexual athletes everywhere.

Too bad Zomegnan didn't accept. But as you said: mainly conservative Catholic countries ...

Tell me you are kidding....pleeease tell me you are kidding!!

 

[SpartacusRox]

Lloyd is a much better climber than Wegmann.

What seems to be a disconcerting theme in Cadel's GT rides is his 'revealing' that he was ill after he loses.

Before i get flamed I am not saying he didn't put in a great ride, he did. Just tkes a bit of shine off it when he feels he has to let us all know that he was actually ill uring the race. Shades of last years TdF. Would be better if he just didn't say anything then it wouldn't appear like he was making excuses. He really doesn't need to make excuses because he rode a brilliant race with the resources at his disposal which essentailly = zero in terms of decent team support.

 

[myrideissteelerthanyours]

Remember when BMC was "defending" the maglia rosa... instant classic GT for the LOLs as well as the good racing.

 

[issoisso]

What seems to be a disconcerting theme in Cadel's GT rides is his 'revealing' that he was ill after he loses.

Before i get flamed I am not saying he didn't put in a great ride, he did. Just tkes a bit of shine off it when he feels he has to let us all know that he was actually ill uring the race. Shades of last years TdF. Would be better if he just didn't say anything then it wouldn't appear like he was making excuses. He really doesn't need to make excuses because he rode a brilliant race with the resources at his disposal which essentailly = zero in terms of decent team support.

It could be far worse. Think Boonen pre-2009.

Every single time he didn't win something, he was ill or he had a mechanical problem, or a gust of wind knocked him down, or his mother was abducted by aliens.

It was never that he wasn't good enough.

 

[this_is_edie]

Agreed, his whole I was sick afterwards is lame. He should just have said I did the best I could, fought as hard as I could but these 4 guys were just better than I was. And then smile and walk away.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Two words: Leif Hoste.

 

[big ring king]

"Agreed, his whole I was sick afterwards is lame. He should just have said I did the best I could, fought as hard as I could but these 4 guys were just better than I was. And then smile and walk away."

I was just about to come on and say the same thing. I mean no disrespect to Aussies when I say that cadel is a Tool. The dude has very little class, and has been hinting at these excuses since Basso smoked him. To top it off he's an arogant tool. 8 years ago I was really rooting for him, but haven't liked him for a long time. He rode a great race, but lost, it's as simple as that.

 

[big ring king]

great showing by Australia though...

 

[M Sport]

I wonder whether it was really worth inviting BMC to the Tour or whether it would have been better to ask Skil or Vacansoleil. Okay, they don't have a stronger squad either, but what's the point of inviting big names if they won't be able to do much. Of course no one could foresee the Ballan/Kroon situation.

Skil or Vacansoleil who? Seriously, do they have anyone that can threaten the top 10?

The teams picked were the right ones. Even Retirement Shack with leacheimer is better than Skil or Vacansoleil.

 

[luckyboy]

There are plenty of riders who can challenge for the top ten. Skil and Vacansoleil will fight on the boring days (of which there are usually many in the Tour). BMC will all guard Evans on these days, then obviously leave him to his own devices in the mountains.

 

[BroDeal]

Skil or Vacansoleil who? Seriously, do they have anyone that can threaten the top 10?

There is more to a GT than the top ten.

 

[M Sport]

Sure there is. But there's not more to a GT than excluding the current World Champions team, the only recent World Champion with a half decent chance of a podium or a top 5 finish at the TdF in favour or some two bit second string teams some fan boys are pumping here.

That's all.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

But the point is, after his Giro exploits, that we don't think Evans will be able to compete to the same level at the Tour. Look at how Menchov fell apart at last year's Tour. I expect Evans' Tour to be more in line with Sastre's or Pellizotti's last year, which had some positives, but he is probably not a realistic candidate for the podium after the incredibly tough and draining Giro we've just had.

There is more to a GT than the rainbow jersey too. Paolo Bettini didn't ride the Tour in 2008. Sure it's nice to see it there, but look at the wildcard teams. The wildcard teams are the ones who are usually invited with the aim of livening up the race (hence the term wildcard).

Radioshack - will be working to protect a GC candidate who rides defensively.
Sky - will be working to protect a GC candidate who rides defensively.
Garmin - will be either working to protect a GC candidate who rides defensively, or bringing back breakaways to have a chance of coming second in a bunch sprint.
Katyusha - will hopefully enliven the race with the likes of Ignatiev.
BMC - will be working to protect a GC candidate who will ride defensively (no attack on Evans here, seeing as he's a much more aggressive rider than he used to be. I just don't see how he's going to have it in him to ride aggressively day after day in the Tour after running himself into the ground in Italy).
Cervélo - will hopefully enliven the race but will also be looking to bunch sprints with the likes of Hushovd and Haussler.

So there you go. Not much race-enlivening going on amongst that lot.

 

[auscyclefan94]

But the point is, after his Giro exploits, that we don't think Evans will be able to compete to the same level at the Tour. Look at how Menchov fell apart at last year's Tour. I expect Evans' Tour to be more in line with Sastre's or Pellizotti's last year, which had some positives, but he is probably not a realistic candidate for the podium after the incredibly tough and draining Giro we've just had.

There is more to a GT than the rainbow jersey too. Paolo Bettini didn't ride the Tour in 2008. Sure it's nice to see it there, but look at the wildcard teams. The wildcard teams are the ones who are usually invited with the aim of livening up the race (hence the term wildcard).

Radioshack - will be working to protect a GC candidate who rides defensively.
Sky - will be working to protect a GC candidate who rides defensively.
Garmin - will be either working to protect a GC candidate who rides defensively, or bringing back breakaways to have a chance of coming second in a bunch sprint.
Katyusha - will hopefully enliven the race with the likes of Ignatiev.
BMC - will be working to protect a GC candidate who will ride defensively (no attack on Evans here, seeing as he's a much more aggressive rider than he used to be. I just don't see how he's going to have it in him to ride aggressively day after day in the Tour after running himself into the ground in Italy).
Cervélo - will hopefully enliven the race but will also be looking to bunch sprints with the likes of Hushovd and Haussler.

So there you go. Not much race-enlivening going on amongst that lot.

I'd have to agree but if he fails misreably on the first mtn stage i hope he goes for stage victories or is allowed to go for stage victories. Will be good if his teammates can get some wins also. his younger climbing teamates will be good for the experience of riding a gt'(s) this year ad they will be far better help along with some recruitment.

 

[Sasquatch]

I don't think Lloyd is a good enough climber to be KOM at both races. We must remember that the Giro is very stingy with its mountains points, with only the first three or four riders across the stripe getting points. Also, the first across the line gets proportionally more in comparison to second and third than in the Tour.

Also, Lloyd simply isn't an elite climber. He could hold the Tour KOM for a few days but he isn't going to win it. He won the Giro's KOM the same way Fabian Wegmann won it; hoovering up the 3s and 5s available for 2nd and 3rd category climbs, and breathing a sigh of relief that no major name went hunting for points the way Sella, Garzelli and Piepoli have done in recent years; the only names that seemed to want to challenge him were Tondó (ran out of steam in week 3) and Pozzovivo (dropped out in week 2), as they were the ones fighting him for the points in the stage 11 breakaway; Lloyd was also dropped before the last climb and it was up to Bakelants and de Greef to protect the points from Tondó. With the double-points available for MTFs in the Tour and the wider disparity between 1st and 2nd category climbs (16 and 10 points available for first rider) and 3rd and 4th category climbs (4 and 3 points available for first rider) it would be very, very difficult for Lloyd to duplicate that success.

Yeah. I said he could go for it but didn't say he would win it.

In regards to the KOM jersey this year, if Valverde isn't riding, I can see Soler winning his second jersey. The guy seems back in form after an injury interrupted two years.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I'd have to agree but if he fails misreably on the first mtn stage i hope he goes for stage victories or is allowed to go for stage victories. Will be good if his teammates can get some wins also. his younger climbing teamates will be good for the experience of riding a gt'(s) this year ad they will be far better help along with some recruitment.

I'd hope he can be reasonable with that. I think it would be a realistic goal. Target a couple of stages that suit him; he's surprisingly good in a sprint, so a stage like the one to Pau might suit him, as he can shed many break mates in the climbs and then outsprint them, or the ITT.

The problem with that is that I think Cuddles is rather too competitive to lose enough time to be allowed to go; I always get the feeling he'd guts it out to limit his loss to six minutes than say 'no, looks like I don't have it this year', roll in in the autobus and then be fresh to get in the break the next day.

The paradox is that perhaps he went to BMC a year too early because they'll be able to provide better support as of next year, but that they only get the GT experience that enables them to do so as a result of him going there.

 

[Eyeballs Out]

I think the most positive indicator for Evans is that Pellizotti did a lot better than expected in the Tour last year - ok, not a GC contender but you still need to be in pretty decent shape to win KOM. Remember, he had a reputation for completely disappearing after May (I think Evans would be a lot more durable than Pellizotti). Also I think Pellizotti was quite a late addition to the team wasn't he ? And he certainly isn't as well suited to the type of racing in the Tour as Evans is. So I think, all things considered, Evans should be capable of riding fairly well in July - not well enough to win certainly but at least not be invisible. He just needs to keep his GC expectations fairly low and go in without putting pressure on himself - I don't think he owes BMC anything now after the way he's ridden this year