Cadel/BMC for TdF

[Libertine Seguros]

Perhaps a better indicator is to look at the Tour-Vuelta double; the Vuelta doesn't tend to have as strong a field, and a slower average speed, and so should be more reasonable to easy for a GT contender to be competitive for consecutive races.

But how many GC riders have had success at both in recent years?

2009:
Evans (Tour 30th, Vuelta 3rd) can't really be considered because of the disaster that was his Tour.
Gesink (Tour DNF, Vuelta 6th) can't really be considered because of injury.

2008:
Sastre (Tour 1st, Vuelta 3rd) would certainly count, but he was outclimbed by others at that race who lost time where they shouldn't (Valverde and Rodríguez). He'd blown most of his strength at the Tour.
Valverde (Tour 9th, Vuelta 5th) only targeted the Vuelta after making a mess of his Tour ambitions on Hautacam.

2007:
Evans (Tour 2nd, Vuelta 4th) competed in both but was less successful in Spain despite the weaker field and slower pace.
Sastre (Tour 4th, Vuelta 2nd) was perhaps the first you could really say performed better at the second GT AND performed at a decent level in both.

Remember, this is with a performance at the Tour and then at the VUELTA. Performing from the Giro to the Tour is asking them to be competitive at a race which is faster and has a stronger field than the Giro. That naturally makes it harder to combine the two.

We shouldn't forget that Evans also had a very strong April classics campaign. Asking him to hold top form for FOUR STRAIGHT MONTHS is asking a bit much, I think.

 

[Ferminal]

Ideally he would skip the Tour and then Vuelta into Worlds like last year.

But goodo BMC wildcard........ he will finish 5th-20th in the Tour.

 

[Christian]

This could help Cuddles.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/ballan-back-to-racing

It's definitely good news for BMC. Well, they decided it themselves so one could wonder whether they just really wanted Ballan in there, for the case that Cadel drops out after the third stage, and then they'd have a team of no-names. I don't think they rushed things though, the article sounds pretty fair.

Still I don't see Ballan doing much though, except maybe on the first stages. With him in top form BMC might even have a small shot at the Maillot Jaune early one, which would be a huge success. Then Cadel could drop out and no one would care.

 

[LukeSchmid]

So possible team of

Cadel Evans
George Hincapie
Marcus Burghardt
Steve Morabito
Mauro Santambrogio
Karsten Kroon (if fit)
Alex Moos
Mathias Frank and one other.

Does anyone know what is happening with Ballan? Is he likely to be racing again soon or probably not for a couple of years

My question got answered far quicker than I thought. So Ballan for the last spot. A lot stronger team than the Giro team, ignoring the fact Evans almost certainly won't be at his best, but it doesn't really look strong enough to really support Evans properly if he is somehow in top form.

 

[bicing]

Perhaps a better indicator is to look at the Tour-Vuelta double; the Vuelta doesn't tend to have as strong a field, and a slower average speed, and so should be more reasonable to easy for a GT contender to be competitive for consecutive races.

But how many GC riders have had success at both in recent years?

2009:
Evans (Tour 30th, Vuelta 3rd) can't really be considered because of the disaster that was his Tour.
Gesink (Tour DNF, Vuelta 6th) can't really be considered because of injury.

2008:
Sastre (Tour 1st, Vuelta 3rd) would certainly count, but he was outclimbed by others at that race who lost time where they shouldn't (Valverde and Rodríguez). He'd blown most of his strength at the Tour.
Valverde (Tour 9th, Vuelta 5th) only targeted the Vuelta after making a mess of his Tour ambitions on Hautacam.

2007:
Evans (Tour 2nd, Vuelta 4th) competed in both but was less successful in Spain despite the weaker field and slower pace.
Sastre (Tour 4th, Vuelta 2nd) was perhaps the first you could really say performed better at the second GT AND performed at a decent level in both.

Remember, this is with a performance at the Tour and then at the VUELTA. Performing from the Giro to the Tour is asking them to be competitive at a race which is faster and has a stronger field than the Giro. That naturally makes it harder to combine the two.

We shouldn't forget that Evans also had a very strong April classics campaign. Asking him to hold top form for FOUR STRAIGHT MONTHS is asking a bit much, I think.

Bravo for this. This gives a much better explanation why the Giro-Tour is different from the Tour-Vuelta. Now I tend to agree that he can't back up for the Tour. In that case, BMC must be using this opportunity to impress the ASO by animating the race and going for stage wins to be invited next year (if not in the ProTour), before trying for real in 2011 and 12. Because there's no way he'd do the Giro in the next 2 years if it means he'll have no chance at the Tour.

 

[auscyclefan94]

I think he knows it himself...He has said he is really hard but maybe going for a jersey might be a good thing and can come back to the tour with gc aspirations next year. Maybe it will be good for the australian cycling fans to follow rogers campaign for a high gc. Evans and co believe he can win it. So do I and I beileve Contador is beatable. Evans has said hewants revenge and is hungriere than ever to get it at the tour and the giro after being so close to conti in 07 and also wants revenge after the dauphine last year.

 

[jaylew]

Perhaps a better indicator is to look at the Tour-Vuelta double; the Vuelta doesn't tend to have as strong a field, and a slower average speed, and so should be more reasonable to easy for a GT contender to be competitive for consecutive races.

But how many GC riders have had success at both in recent years?

2007:
Evans (Tour 2nd, Vuelta 4th) competed in both but was less successful in Spain despite the weaker field and slower pace.
Sastre (Tour 4th, Vuelta 2nd) was perhaps the first you could really say performed better at the second GT AND performed at a decent level in both.

Remember, this is with a performance at the Tour and then at the VUELTA. Performing from the Giro to the Tour is asking them to be competitive at a race which is faster and has a stronger field than the Giro. That naturally makes it harder to combine the two.

You could go back to the Heras years of course (2000 - 5th and 1st, 2001 - 15th and 4th, 2002 - 9th and 2nd)to find a guy that did well in both the Tour and Vuelta but performed better at the latter. I agree with you, though. It's probably not going to happen. The Tour as your 2nd GT is a lot different than the Vuelta as your 2nd.

The only guy I see who might be able to do a Giro/Tour double(or podium) is AC. We might even get to see him try next year.

 

[icefire]

Evans won't do better at the TdF than he's doing at this Giro. He'd better skip the TdF to do the Vuelta this year. But for commercial reasons he's forced to do the Tour regardless of his form. Aside from that I can only see him doing the Vuelta in the future if he's allowed to have an exclusive neutral service for him

 

[luckyboy]

He should rest and go for the Vuelta instead.

 

[metaCYCLE]

He should rest and go for the Vuelta instead.

but he simply won't therefore another year without a 1st in a GT GC.

 

[slartiblartfast]

I agree Cadel for his own sake should miss the tour. If he were a racehorse he would be put out for a spell and come back for a (northern) autumn campaign! However, since BMC perhaps unexpectedly got a tour wild card he will have heavy team/sponsor commitments to start the tour.

The question is what will he do when he slips back out of contention mid tour, which he inevitably will because of the past 3 weeks of punishment. He could keep riding hard and bury himself further. He could ease up and try and preserve himself for later in the year (which is I think what he did in the final few stages of the 2009 tour when it became obvious he did not have the form to compete on GC). Or he could drop out mid race which is very much against his nature. Altogether it isn't a great scenario for Cadel. Perhaps as ACF suggested earlier Aussies should place their tour expectations more on Mick Rogers' shoulders.

 

[luckyboy]

Perhaps as ACF suggested earlier Aussies should place their tour expectations more on Mick Rogers' shoulders.

I'd say that was being even more hopeful.

 

[Woody22]

There is no way Evans will ride the Tour and not be trying to win it. I actually think that he will do better in the Tour than he has in the Giro. The climbs arn't as steep, and the steep gradients are where he lost major chunks of time. Also, no TTT is a bonus for him. In reality, he won't beat Contador and probably a few others, unless something unusual happens. Who's to say it won't. But there can be no doubt that he will be trying with everything he has.

 

[cineteq]

Ideally he would skip the Tour and then Vuelta into Worlds like last year.

Yup. Evans have more chance to win the Vuelta, perhaps better than last year's. Although BMC's exposure in TdF is more important for the team, than burning Evans chances (if any) with a clear weaker team.

 

[BroDeal]

Evans should target the KOM and a stage win. He can rest in the Rabobus during many stages, which will be quite helpful after a brutally hard Giro. He could ride the Tour relatively easily and then go for the Vuelta.

 

[movingtarget]

Evans BMC

I am sure that Evans will ride the Giro again next year, simply because it is the race he has more chance of winning. By doing a bit less in the Spring he will have a greater chance along with more km's in the Giro's individual time trials than this year possibly. Maybe BMC will send a weaker team to the Tour of California. Hopefully. I think you will also see a few new riders at BMC next year.

 

[mherm79]

Evans should target the KOM and a stage win. He can rest in the Rabobus during many stages, which will be quite helpful after a brutally hard Giro. He could ride the Tour relatively easily and then go for the Vuelta.

I don't think he'd out gun the pure climbers aiming for the KOM. A stage win is more realistic.

 

[Jamsque]

Getting the Polka Dot jersey isn't so much about being an excellent pure climber as it is about having the endurance to go in long breakaways on three or four big mountain stages and hoover up points. If Cuddles drops enough time on GC in the first week he should be more than capable of that.

 

[Sydney Sider]

If i was BMC i would just target stage wins and then see how the race develops , i cant see Cadel holding his form till July.

I think it would be a waste of time to wait till Cadel drops out of contention as the early cobbled stage could be a perfect oppotunity for Hincapie to try get in a break.

 

[Jamsque]

I think Hincapie can attack that stage without putting Cadel's GC ambitions in jeopardy.

 

[Scirea]

Ballan is free to race again, he will go to the Tour.

And there is no way EVans will miss the TdF. They wouldn't be invited without him.

 

[Sydney Sider]

I think Hincapie can attack that stage without putting Cadel's GC ambitions in jeopardy.

I think he should be allowed but i also believe he may be designated to look after Cadel during the cobbled sections.

 

[JA.Tri]

Evans to forget about GC. Lose 30 mins in first week. Take out KOM, save energy for TT. Think this is something he worked out last year, to actually enjoy it too.

Great plan! However I recon Cadel will feel compelled to try for GC, fall in a screaming heap and then adopt your plan or something like it.

Agree with sentiment that BMC have insufficient depth to run two consecutive GT. I recon ASO will end up steaming or on tilt at BMC's poor (my prognostication) TdF showing. ASO will regret invite (but they will feel they really didn't have much choice).

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Agree with sentiment that BMC have insufficient depth to run two consecutive GT. I recon ASO will end up steaming or on tilt at BMC's poor (my prognostication) TdF showing. ASO will regret invite (but they will feel they really didn't have much choice).

it all depends on how evans fares really.
I mean, other then Evans, they were very poor in this giro.

still think it's a shame vasc. miss out.

 

[JA.Tri]

it all depends on how evans fares really.
I mean, other then Evans, they were very poor in this giro.

still think it's a shame vasc. miss out.

agreed (SS will also be miffed at missing out).