Cadel Evans Discussion Thread

[dlwssonic]

Well Wiggins, Andy, Nibali, Menchov and Contador all have their own discussion thread.
With the tour coming soon, its time to discuss about our defending champion.

 

[Don't be late Pedro]

Anyone know if there are many chances for him to used his superior descending and strength on hilly finishes to take some on some of the other contenders?

 

[maxmartin]

almost certain he will team up with NS, to take time on Wiggins, Scheleck on descending

Anyone know if there are many chances for him to used his superior descending and strength on hilly finishes to take some on some of the other contenders?

 

[Afrank]

The only one at this point that can beat Wiggins. Hope he manages to do it.

 

[Captain Sensible]

The only one at this point that can beat Wiggins. Hope he manages to do it.

I agree and the experience and confidence of winning last year might just be the difference between them .

 

[dlwssonic]

Am I wrong to say Cadel is the favourite for the tour this year??

 

[Marcus135]

Am I wrong to say Cadel is the favourite for the tour this year??

Personally i think it can be argued that he is still the favorite. He is after all the defending champion and seems to be heading towards the race with the same sort of form that saw him win last year. Alberto cannot race, frandy does not seem to have it this year and the other main contender for the race would be Wiggo who's best result at a grand tour is third at the vuelta.

Of course it can be argued both ways but from that perspective he can be viewed as the favorite. Really it does not matter who is the favorite anyway.

 

[veganrob]

UKPostal look scary good right now, but I don't think they will repeat the Dauphine performance in TdF. So I still like Cadel. He has learned a lot from winning last year and will have have to use that experience to win again I believe he will. I hope.

 

[briztoon]

There was a recent interview on Radio National Australia with GreenEDGE founder Gerry Ryan. In part of his interview he said that GreenEDGE currently don't have a GC contender like Cadel, and that if Cadel needed some support he would hope that if GreenEDGE were there, that they would lend Cadel a hand.

http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/sundayprofile/gerry-ryan2c-businessman-26-sports-backer/4061222

19:20 in.

 

[norwegian]

At this point, I would say it`s a tie between Wiggins and Evans. Then Andy and Frank.

 

[BillytheKid]

Cadel, if no one has not already mentioned it, has the race "wisdom" advantage here. Wiggins can do well in the shorter stage races and has never look better.

The problem is a Grand Tour is three weeks and Wiggo has yet to figure that out. He has never looked better and the parcours seem to suit him better this year, but my money's still on Cadel. Wiggins will most likely have some bad mountain days down toward the end and Cadel can manage the ITT with time gained in mountains.

Cadel will leave Wiggins in the Yellow Jerseys... exhustig his team, and take it off him in the Pyrenees.

 

[veganrob]

Cadel, if no one has not already mentioned it, has the race "wisdom" advantage here. Wiggins can do well in the shorter stage races and has never look better.

The problem is a Grand Tour is three weeks and Wiggo has yet to figure that out. He has never looked better and the parcours seem to suit him better this year, but my money's still on Cadel. Wiggins will most likely have some bad mountain days down toward the end and Cadel can manage the ITT with time gained in mountains.

Cadel will leave Wiggins in the Yellow Jerseys... exhustig his team, and take it off him in the Pyrenees.

I did mention the advantage Evans may have, having been there. He certainly did not have the strongest team last year and does not this.
Let Wiggo get the Yellow jersey early and if Sky try to control the Tour like Liquigas did the Giro it may be a big fail.

 

[dlwssonic]

Yes Cadel only needs the team to protect him in the flats, he can free ride on UK postal in the mountains.

 

[Winterfold]

I think he's still favourite even though he deserves a stronger team.

I think Sky will do their best to avoid the yellow jersey for as long as they can and will be a bit wiser to cunning moves like Stage 1 Dauphine.

Martin could be in yellow for a while if he storms the prologue. I think he has had enough of losing to Wiggins for one year.

This will be less good for Cuddles than Wiggo being in yellow but will still be good. OPQS will want to keep yellow and are strong enough to control things - they don't have a serious GC contender ( maybe Levi but i dont think so) so if they get yellow keep it.

 

[johnnycash]

I think he's still favourite even though he deserves a stronger team.

Agreed. Evans dropping Sky in the mountains is a possibility, albeit by no means a certainity, but I'm not convinced Evans can compete with Wiggo in the TTs at the moment.

Currently Wiggo is such a weapon on the TT's, Cadel might be too far adrift on those alone and I think his team will struggle. CE always seems to have a weaker team than he needs. Now it seems he's tryign to broker deals with Greenedge to get some help. Wiggo has a big advantage there, especially if Cadel gets in yellow early.

 

[singlecog]

BMC were lucky last year,

As Europcar had the yellow most of the way, they just had to ride vanguard into paris.

I have never seen them too useful in the mountains, they were present in stage 18TDF 2011 for a while, but not nearly long enough.

Sky are way stronger and Wiggo will prob have yellow heading into the last week some may happen again

 

[JA.Tri]

UKPostal look scary good right now, but I don't think they will repeat the Dauphine performance in TdF. So I still like Cadel. He has learned a lot from winning last year and will have have to use that experience to win again I believe he will. I hope.

Big question can Sky and BW maintain form such that they are at or close to peak in week 3. My gut feel is (and I have no evidence) they will be fading. Cadel may well fade in week 3, but I rate that a lower possibility.

Given Sky and BW are fading (and Cadel is not) I recon Cadel will pull back whatever advantage BW has managed to develop. Of course I am forgetting the one/two (jet black) dark horses that inevitably will rock up.

Fingers/toes et al crossed for Cadel.

 

[Marcus135]

Yes Cadel only needs the team to protect him in the flats, he can free ride on UK postal in the mountains.

The way Wiggo will want to ride the mountains and set his team to do so, i would imagine would be the same way that Cadel would want to ride the mountains as you say. I highly doubt they would be able to drop him either. Cadel will most likley have the explosive power to grap a handful of seconds off wiggo in the final kilometer (maybe wishful thinking). Its just how he can limit his losses in the TT as i think that will be the only place Wiggo will be able to gain time on him. (unless age has caught up with cuddles and he fades in the mountians like we saw with Basso at the giro this year)

 

[dlwssonic]

I think BMC is strong enough for cadel.
He has some of the best domestiques on the flats like hincapie, quinziato, burghardt and schar.
In the mountains morabito, moinard and TJVG are all decent.
Gilbert can help out cadel on the hills too.

Of course Cadel does not have a super domestique like basso, froome or horner.
But the other teams will do the work for him in the high mountains.

 

[Another_Dutch_Guy]

It will be an interesting battle, and I think the key is in the hands of the Schleck brothers. In his own, I don't think he will be able to gain advantage on the UK postal train, but maybe with the help of Andy and Frank...

Really hopes that will work, because I think Wiggins is a kind of a boring rider.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Cadel impressed me last year with the fight he put up. Even tho I voted Samu ftw this year, Cadel could repeat.

 

[Oldman]

Big question can Sky and BW maintain form such that they are at or close to peak in week 3. My gut feel is (and I have no evidence) they will be fading. Cadel may well fade in week 3, but I rate that a lower possibility.

Given Sky and BW are fading (and Cadel is not) I recon Cadel will pull back whatever advantage BW has managed to develop. Of course I am forgetting the one/two (jet black) dark horses that inevitably will rock up.

Fingers/toes et al crossed for Cadel.

+1. There will be dark horses but Cadel showed excellent poise for the entire race last year. Wiggins has been boiling about two weeks early to last through the full three weeks.

 

[slartiblartfast]

Cadel will most likely lose a minute to Wiggins in each of the two time trials. He just has to keep chipping away at Wiggins on the other stages, picking up a few seconds here and there and hoping that Wiggins cracks in one of the Pyrenees mountain stages.

 

[Afrank]

Cadel will most likely lose a minute to Wiggins in each of the two time trials. He just has to keep chipping away at Wiggins on the other stages, picking up a few seconds here and there and hoping that Wiggins cracks in one of the Pyrenees mountain stages.

This is exactly why I am hoping Cadel can win. Unlike Wiggins he has learned to attack, he hasn't been just relying on his team to set the pace in the mountains and then win it in the time trial this season. He is attacking for the win.

 

[karlboss]

How much do folks think Evans will lose to Wiggins in the TTs?
My Guesses
Prologue: under 10 sec
First ITT: 1 minute
second ITT: 0 seconds