Don't be late Pedro said:Anyone know if there are many chances for him to used his superior descending and strength on hilly finishes to take some on some of the other contenders?
I agree and the experience and confidence of winning last year might just be the difference between them .Afrank said:![]()
The only one at this point that can beat Wiggins. Hope he manages to do it.
Personally i think it can be argued that he is still the favorite. He is after all the defending champion and seems to be heading towards the race with the same sort of form that saw him win last year. Alberto cannot race, frandy does not seem to have it this year and the other main contender for the race would be Wiggo who's best result at a grand tour is third at the vuelta.dlwssonic said:Am I wrong to say Cadel is the favourite for the tour this year??
I did mention the advantage Evans may have, having been there. He certainly did not have the strongest team last year and does not this.BillytheKid said:Cadel, if no one has not already mentioned it, has the race "wisdom" advantage here. Wiggins can do well in the shorter stage races and has never look better.
The problem is a Grand Tour is three weeks and Wiggo has yet to figure that out. He has never looked better and the parcours seem to suit him better this year, but my money's still on Cadel. Wiggins will most likely have some bad mountain days down toward the end and Cadel can manage the ITT with time gained in mountains.
Cadel will leave Wiggins in the Yellow Jerseys... exhustig his team, and take it off him in the Pyrenees.
Agreed. Evans dropping Sky in the mountains is a possibility, albeit by no means a certainity, but I'm not convinced Evans can compete with Wiggo in the TTs at the moment.Winterfold said:I think he's still favourite even though he deserves a stronger team.
Big question can Sky and BW maintain form such that they are at or close to peak in week 3. My gut feel is (and I have no evidence) they will be fading. Cadel may well fade in week 3, but I rate that a lower possibility.veganrob said:UKPostal look scary good right now, but I don't think they will repeat the Dauphine performance in TdF. So I still like Cadel. He has learned a lot from winning last year and will have have to use that experience to win again I believe he will. I hope.
The way Wiggo will want to ride the mountains and set his team to do so, i would imagine would be the same way that Cadel would want to ride the mountains as you say. I highly doubt they would be able to drop him either. Cadel will most likley have the explosive power to grap a handful of seconds off wiggo in the final kilometer (maybe wishful thinking). Its just how he can limit his losses in the TT as i think that will be the only place Wiggo will be able to gain time on him. (unless age has caught up with cuddles and he fades in the mountians like we saw with Basso at the giro this year)dlwssonic said:Yes Cadel only needs the team to protect him in the flats, he can free ride on UK postal in the mountains.
+1. There will be dark horses but Cadel showed excellent poise for the entire race last year. Wiggins has been boiling about two weeks early to last through the full three weeks.JA.Tri said:Big question can Sky and BW maintain form such that they are at or close to peak in week 3. My gut feel is (and I have no evidence) they will be fading. Cadel may well fade in week 3, but I rate that a lower possibility.
Given Sky and BW are fading (and Cadel is not) I recon Cadel will pull back whatever advantage BW has managed to develop. Of course I am forgetting the one/two (jet black) dark horses that inevitably will rock up.
Fingers/toes et al crossed for Cadel.
This is exactly why I am hoping Cadel can win. Unlike Wiggins he has learned to attack, he hasn't been just relying on his team to set the pace in the mountains and then win it in the time trial this season. He is attacking for the win.slartiblartfast said:Cadel will most likely lose a minute to Wiggins in each of the two time trials. He just has to keep chipping away at Wiggins on the other stages, picking up a few seconds here and there and hoping that Wiggins cracks in one of the Pyrenees mountain stages.
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