Cadel Evans Discussion Thread

[hughmoore]

Cadel cant rely on Wiggins cracking in Mountains or the last TT.

He is going to have to race to win.

Remember last year, Andy thought Evans would crack, he didnt.

Look at the Giro, they all thought Ryder would crack, he didnt.

Its going to be a great race as usual, cant wait, go Cadel!!!

The other climbers are going to have to attack as well, I can see Wiggans thinking he can just sit on Cadels wheel all the way.

Hugh

 

[cineteq]

Cadel needs only to focus on his race, it's not about Wiggins winning ITTs. They're other quality riders, like Nibali , that will take care of Wiggo's inexperience and sooner or later he'll make a mistake that would be very costly. Anyway, he'll be more likely crack on the 3rd week.

 

[dlwssonic]

Cadel won't lose that much time to wiggins in the first TT. Maybe 30-45 seconds?
In the second TT cadel will be very strong there.
Might even match wiggo's time.

 

[Galic Ho]

Cadel won't lose that much time to wiggins in the first TT. Maybe 30-45 seconds?
In the second TT cadel will be very strong there.
Might even match wiggo's time.

I doubt Wiggins will pull 30-45 seconds cumulative over all the chronos on Evans. Same with Menchov. If they are all on form for all three, historically, Wiggins will gain very little, if any. We're talking three weeks not one week. Until very recently, Wiggins chrono on the road was meh for someone appraised as highly as he has been.

Even then, Tony Martin and Cancellara will have his measure. Olympic Gold is coming up, don't forget that. Tour lets them gauge their form. Both ITT specialists will go hard.

Cadel will be fine. He's looking well prepared and as good as last year. That's worrying for a lot of his competition. He was almost untouchable last year. Didn't have a bad day. It's why he won. Great climbing, almost the best in the chrono. The all round whammy. He covered his bases well. Guys who can do this, Nibali, Menchov and possibly Samu and Valverde will be very dangerous this Tour.

 

[eljimberino]

Is he riding the new aero road bike or or sticking to the old and faithful team machine slr01?

 

[Wilba60]

I don't think the interview with Gerry Ryan of OGE and his assertions that GE may have opportunities to help Cadel would surprise anyone...would it? He is an icon of Australian cycling and probably good mates with a number of the GE boys who would not only respect him very highly but will also share a common enemy in Sky. Goss will be the team leader and Sky will present his and the teams biggest challenge to green.

Maybe it will be like the old west where they made up deputies and they could pin a deputies badge on Peter Weening and he could assist the BMC mountain brigade if able

 

[Wilba60]

It would be really interesting to know how well regarded Cadel is by the Aussie boys at GE.

I suppose the Aussies who could help him the most in the mountains aren't available for assistance, Rogers and Porte.

 

[hughmoore]

I think from sponsorship/business point of view, having Cadel win second TDF would be good for Greenedge.

Ie More coverage in the Australian papers/TV.

In terms of on the road, if Cadel found himself in yellow early, Greenedge would want to bring back breakaways in sprint stages, whereas SKY might want BMC to do some more work.

No doubt Cav might want to jump on Goss/Greenedge train also.

I expect Greenedge to be a front a lot this tour early, which can only be good for Cadel.


Hugh

 

[JA.Tri]

How much do folks think Evans will lose to Wiggins in the TTs?
My Guesses
Prologue: under 10 sec
First ITT: 1 minute
second ITT: 0 seconds

Of that order:

First ITT: from 30sec to 1min 30

Second ITT: from 10sec to 45sec.

Brad will probably have a significant form/ability edge in first ITT. Hopefully Cadel will be coming on strong as Brad fades slightly in the second ITT.

 

[dlwssonic]

Of that order:

First ITT: from 30sec to 1min 30

Second ITT: from 10sec to 45sec.

Brad will probably have a significant form/ability edge in first ITT. Hopefully Cadel will be coming on strong as Brad fades slightly in the second ITT.

If cadel was like how he was last year, he might even be able to gain time or match wiggins in the last TT

 

[JA.Tri]

Climbing:

With the non-TTers seeking time there could be significant splits on the steep ascents.

Will Cadel and Brad end up riding hard tempo rather than seeking to stay with Andy et al's blistering accelerations?
Will Cadel and Brad ride together?
Will Brad be slightly better than Cadel on the early ascents (he certainly looked at ease/strong on the Dauphine ascents I saw)?

While last year, Cadel demonstrated an ability to cope without strong mountain domestiques...my guess is anybody (inc Cadel) would always be grateful for a team mate in the final selection of the tough ascents.

 

[dlwssonic]

Climbing:

With the non-TTers seeking time there could be significant splits on the steep ascents.

Will Cadel and Brad end up riding hard tempo rather than seeking to stay with Andy et al's blistering accelerations?
Will Cadel and Brad ride together?
Will Brad be slightly better than Cadel on the early ascents (he certainly looked at ease/strong on the Dauphine ascents I saw)?

While last year, Cadel demonstrated an ability to cope without strong mountain domestiques...my guess is anybody (inc Cadel) would always be grateful for a team mate in the final selection of the tough ascents.

Bradley was also better at climbing in last years dauphine. Where Cadel was really suffering on the climbs. So we don't need to be too worried about that.
I think Cadel will always try to follow any of the contenders who attacks(Andy) as he wants to gain time in the mountains.

 

[eljimberino]

A foreseeable problem will be similar to a few situations last year.

A Schleck and Samu go off on a climb. Wiggo in yellow can not follow, and Evans watches him too long. Evans will want to move past Wiggo without dragging him up the climb. Or does Evans attempt to follow pure climbers and potentially blow?

 

[dlwssonic]

A foreseeable problem will be similar to a few situations last year.

A Schleck and Samu go off on a climb. Wiggo in yellow can not follow, and Evans watches him too long. Evans will want to move past Wiggo without dragging him up the climb. Or does Evans attempt to follow pure climbers and potentially blow?

Evans will try to follow the pure climbers like he did last year, I'm quite sure of that.

 

[eljimberino]

What about the stage where everyone let Schleck ride to 4min advantage. Only Evans clawed the time back?

 

[Marcus135]

What about the stage where everyone let Schleck ride to 4min advantage. Only Evans clawed the time back?

I dont think UK postal will let any GC threat get any sort of gap from a long distance like he did last year...

 

[dlwssonic]

I dont think UK postal will let any GC threat get any sort of gap from a long distance like he did last year...

Yeah if UK Postal are strong, they would not let anyone get that much time.

 

[Mellow Velo]

I doubt Wiggins will pull 30-45 seconds cumulative over all the chronos on Evans. Same with Menchov. If they are all on form for all three, historically, Wiggins will gain very little, if any. We're talking three weeks not one week. Until very recently, Wiggins chrono on the road was meh for someone appraised as highly as he has been.

Well, Cadel's ITTing around here, is being appraised on one effort: the ITT from last year.
Remove that from the equation and he hasn't exactly been Mr Consistency, during his career.

It's all about riding the first two weeks lucky, safe and in good shape. Then, it's about managing effort.

Historically, when Cadel needed 90 seconds from the ITT to beat Sastre, in 2008, couldn't even manage to gain 30 seconds, over the climber.

I suppose I am saying that all this speculation over outcome is just a load of objective spin, from one side of a coin, or the other.

 

[burning]

Well, Cadel's ITTing around here, is being appraised on one effort: the ITT from last year.
Remove that from the equation and he hasn't exactly been Mr Consistency, during his career.

It's all about riding the first two weeks lucky, safe and in good shape. Then, it's about managing effort.

Historically, when Cadel needed 90 seconds from the ITT to beat Sastre, in 2008, couldn't even manage to gain 30 seconds, over the climber.

I suppose I am saying that all this speculation over outcome is just a load of objective spin, from one side of a coin, or the other.

Cadel was probably exhausted in 2008 as he was against whole CSC with nearly no help and he's been a different rider since his WC championship though and he almost won 2007 Tour in the ITT (Or almost lost to Levi too )

 

[johnnycash]

Climbing:

Will Cadel and Brad end up riding hard tempo rather than seeking to stay with Andy et al's blistering accelerations?

.

Think that should be'acceleration', i.e singular, not plural. I don't remember any blistering Frandy attacks at last years tour, other than I'zoard.

 

[trevim]

Cadel was probably exhausted in 2008 as he was against whole CSC with nearly no help and he's been a different rider since his WC championship though and he almost won 2007 Tour in the ITT (Or almost lost to Levi too )

He had lots of help from Kohl,CvV,AG2R on the Alpe. I almost can't remember when he put his nose to the wind But you're right, his team wasn't good enough.

 

[Archibald]

would expect the final week mountains to take more out of wigans than Evans, therefore making the final ITT ver close.

I also expect wigans to crack if Evans takes chase of someone like andy - he pulled andy back on the galibier and everyone trying to follow Evans couldn't in the end.

sky will smash themselves trying to keep green and gain/keep yellow.
Sprint teams like GE n co should not be all that active and leave it ot ukpostal to do the work in their efforts to gain stage wins for Cav.
the attempt for green and yellow can only work in Evan's favour

 

[dlwssonic]

It would be quite funny to see GE working for Cadel.
But I think it will probably be very unlikely to happen.

 

[Mellow Velo]

Cadel was probably exhausted in 2008 as he was against whole CSC with nearly no help and he's been a different rider since his WC championship though and he almost won 2007 Tour in the ITT (Or almost lost to Levi too )

That's why I mentioned managing effort, but again, it's all guesswork as to the whys and wherefores.
People seem able to rationalise Evan's relative failures, while, at the same time, dismiss Wiggin's successes.

Galic Ho summed up Brad's road trialing as meh. The guy was second at the World's in a Martin, Cancellara sandwich. Etc, etc.

My opinion? If both get trouble free rides through Le Tour, I reckon Wiggin's to gain over 100kms, roughly 100 seconds. However, my opinion, like everybody else's, is just a guess.

In order to find where Cadel has the real advantage, I think it necessary to look outside the OZ v GB bubble.
Sky and Wiggins race very prescriptively, while I feel Cadel rides at his best, uninhibited and instinctively.
When under pressure, I'm doubt that Sky's tactical adaptability will be on a par with their overall game plan.
So for me, it's about what the other contenders and those flashy french have up their sleeve, that may hand the advantage to the reigning champion.

 

[dlwssonic]

But why would the french prefer cadel to win rather than wiggins.
100 seconds is not enough for wiggo IMO unless he is really strong in the mountains, hill top finishes and descents.