BigBoat said:
Evans needed 20-30 more watts at threshold for either the final TT or the Alp.
I vote for the TT. Tactics beat him on the Alpe, not his power output. On the Alpe d'Huez Cadel had to cover both Frank Schleck and Sastre as both were his most direct threats. Both do not light the TT world on fire, so Frank was the natural choice to cover because he was only 1 second behind him on the GC. He had to pick one and he picked Frank hoping that he could limit his losses to Sastre because Sastre was further behind on the GC than Frank. Hindsight is 20/20 and we armchair experts can criticise as much as we like, but Cadel and the other GC contenders have more talent in their little finger than the vast majority of us and I believe they all made the best tactical decisions available to them in the heat of a very intense battle. Remember it was not only Cadel that was beaten by SaxoBank tactics, but also Menchov, Vande Velde, Valverde, Kohl, Efimkin, etc. Did they all make the same mistake? Doubtful. They were all one against three, and they all could not cover both Frank and Sastre. They all made the most rational decision and, once this decision was made, the Schleck brothers did a fantastic job of breaking the rhythm of the chasing group and spoiling any challengers to Sastre.
Cadel needed the extra 20-30W in the TT to make back the time he lost to Sastre on the Alpe. These are no excuses for his inability to make back this time, but he had crashed previously and was probably more tired because he was less protected than Sastre. These are probably the reasons why he did not have the threshold power required to win the TT and the TdF. But, bottom line, the truth was revealed in the race of truth (not the Alpe d'Huez stage).