Can Pogacar win the double?

[Gigs_98]

With his last race before the Giro done, it's time to ask the question. Can he pull it off? With Vingegaard injured and either not doing the Tour at all or doing it with a subpar preparation the door seems wide open. But the double is always deceiving. Most thought Contador could do it in 2011, so we did with Froome in 2018. And even Contador in 2015 and Quintana in 2017 were given a chance. Yet at the end none of them came particularly close. Will history repeat itself, or will Pogacar rewrite the historybooks once more?

 

[Netserk]

Why make it a "can" poll and not a "will" poll?

 

[Brullnux]

Froome came within like two minutes and his own teammate, I'd say that's extremely close.

 

[AmRacer]

If Pog wins the double, he should try the triple.

 

[scribers]

If Pog wins the double, he should try the triple.

I’m thinking the worlds + Lombardia might be more appealing goal

 

[Gigs_98]

Froome came within like two minutes and his own teammate, I'd say that's extremely close.

I guess you can argue what "comes close" means. But iirc Roglic went into the final TT basically with the same time as Froome and nobody would argue he came close to winning. The only reason it felt somewhat close is because in theory without Dumoulin Thomas might have gifted the Tour win to his teammate.

 

[Red Rick]

"Will" would be a better phrasing of the question.

I would lay take like 1.5 odds that he does it.

 

[Mayomaniac]

The Di Luca LBL-Giro double? Yeah, without any problems.
The real one? Best chance in a looong time.

 

[Nick2413]

Not crashing out or serious illness will be the biggest factor, probably a 20% chance in each of the races or around 40% chance of that happening alone. Then another 10% chance he loses the Giro and variable chance he loses Tour depending on who is there and what shape they’re in.

 

[YavorD]

What? Am I the only one to vote "no"?

Thanks for Mou isn't here 😂.

 

[Berniece]

I’m thinking the worlds + Lombardia might be more appealing goal

Worlds + Lombardia can almost be done every season, chance for a triple might be very very high IF Vingegaard doesn’t get ready.

 

[scribers]

I’d be worried about overall physical condition for next season too in making the selection on what to do this year. Too much can be too much even for pog

 

[Gigs_98]

"Will" would be a better phrasing of the question.

I would lay take like 1.5 odds that he does it.

Didn't really think about it. Maybe it's a german speaker thing to phrase it like that? Anyway, you can't change the question retrospectively, right?

 

[Netserk]

Why make it a "can" poll and not a "will" poll?

Probability poll:

How likely is Tadej Pogačar to win both the Giro and the Tour this season?

We all agree that he can win the double, but how likely is he to pull it off?

forum.cyclingnews.com

 

[staubsauger]

Vingegaard would've archived the petite double last year if allowed to. That confirms that it is possible for an A level rider to throne above B & C level rider in back to back Grand Tours. This was 100% like Indurain 30 years ago again.

The 2024 Giro d'Italia route is easy enough and the competition weak enough for Pogacar to arrive in France relatively fresh and not too much tuckered out. In theory Pogacar could be around last years level where his preparation towards the Tour de France wasn't perfect due to the crash in Liege!

Lets look at the contenders.

Vingegaard likely is out. I'm not sure whether Roglic is going to be Jumbo Roglic at Bora. He also never looked that convincing last year. His Giro d'Italia win kinda materialized, because Evenepoel & Geoghegan Hart abandoned the race.

Ayuso is going to be a lot better prepared than he was as last years Vuelta a Espana with his late season entree due to injury. In fact his whole last season arguably already had been training and getting into rhythm for 2024. But that's his own teammate. He's going to stay loyal to Pogacar like Ulrich to Riis in 1996.

There are no signs so far Geoghegan Hart is going to materialize like in 2023 & 2020.

Is Kuss better than Pogacar when he's fresh and Pogacar is a bit tuckered out from the Giro d'Italia? I'm not fully convinced. His TT has bettered during the last years however. That's not going to be his Achilles verse. The question is whether his peak shape materializes.

Evenepoel can win the Tour de France on paper. Yes @Logic-is-your-friend, that's me claiming he's a big favorite. IF his preparation is ideal from here on and he arrives with 100% peak shape. He's got a tendency to break apart on a bad day however. But that's a concern we 2 share probably. This might be his golden chance however with Vingegaard out and Pogacar being a bit tired from the Giro d'Italia.

Mas & Co are 2nd tier riders. Sorry. After Vingegaard managed to toy with them at the 2023 Vuelta a Espana I'm convinced these riders are no danger for Pogacars 2024 Tour de France ambition as long as the Slovenian gets his act together.

BUT and here we go

If Bernal matches Ayuso at the upcoming Tour de Romandie he's back into business. Ineos should switch his schedule towards the 2024 Tour de France then. This is a 1b rider if back to his best. He can win another Tour de France in absence of Vingegaard after Pogacar has ridden the Giro d'Italia already. Bernal is the big joker IMHO. If he's back and Ineos fields him for the Tour de France Bernal's the big balk for Pogacars yellow jersey ambitions!

It only needs one of Evenepoel, Roglic & Bernal to open up the race so Pogacar, if in difficulties, has to give a carte Blanche towards Ayuso as well.

 

[Red Rick]

Didn't really think about it. Maybe it's a german speaker thing to phrase it like that? Anyway, you can't change the question retrospectively, right?

I don't think it's a specific German language thing. I think the phrase "can he do it" is actually simply more common but I tend to see that question as "is it possible" which requires the chance to be >0%, which makes the question quite redundant.

 

[Red Rick]

With his last race before the Giro done, it's time to ask the question. Can he pull it off? With Vingegaard injured and either not doing the Tour at all or doing it with a subpar preparation the door seems wide open. But the double is always deceiving. Most thought Contador could do it in 2011, so we did with Froome in 2018. And even Contador in 2015 and Quintana in 2017 were given a chance. Yet at the end none of them came particularly close. Will history repeat itself, or will Pogacar rewrite the historybooks once more?

Poll misses Dumo and Nibali's heroic efforts of 2016 and 2019. Also shoutout to Pello Bilbao's effort in 2020.

 

[Offline]

Teams & Riders - Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

Well there was no thread so I made one. This kid has a bright future ahead of him. https://www.procyclingstats.com/rider/tadej-pogacar Sealed the overall win at Tour de l'Avenir today by almost 1 and a half minutes, a dominant performance. And came 4th in Tour of Slovenia this year, but only...

forum.cyclingnews.com

 

[Axel Hangleck]

He needs to do as little in the Giro as possible; meaning pick maybe just one or two stages to target to put time into the others. Saving energy as much as possible with an eye on July. Look at it as a 42 day Grand Tour.

 

[42x16ss]

He needs to do as little in the Giro as possible; meaning pick maybe just one or two stages to target to put time into the others. Saving energy as much as possible with an eye on July. Look at it as a 42 day Grand Tour.

Guys like Almeida and O'Connor won't be enough to beat Pogacar at the Giro, but definitely a chance of making him do too much. Could be interesting

 

[tobydawq]

Guys like Almeida and O'Connor won't be enough to beat Pogacar at the Giro, but definitely a chance of making him do too much. Could be interesting

Almeida?

 

[Leinster]

I’d at least like to wait until he’s won the first leg of the double before asking if he can do both.

 

[Leinster]

Almeida?

“It’s a bold strategy, Cotton..”

 

[tobydawq]

I’d at least like to wait until he’s won the first leg of the double before asking if he can do both.

He won that leg in December when he announced his participation.

 

[42x16ss]

Almeida?

Doh! Yeah, my bad. The podium contenders. Pretend I said Bardet