Can Voeckler win this? Serious?

[Merckx index]

Don’t laugh. The way this race is going, we could see the “Magnificent Seven” (TV, AS, FS, CE, AC, IB, SS) staying together right to the end of Stages 18 and 19. Maybe Bert is slowly recovering from a knee injury. Maybe the Schlecks will mount a sustained attack. Maybe Basso’s style will be a better fit in the Alps. And maybe Voeckler will crack. But he was supposed to crack today, or for that matter, two days ago. Good grief, it isn’t even a matter of cracking, he isn’t supposed to be in the final group where cracking is a possibility. He’s supposed to be out the back long before.

When someone finishes with the lead group on two MTF in a row, it’s a little more difficult to assume that he will definitely crack on the next one. TV is no longer a breakaway rider capable of making a huge effort to preserve the jersey for another day. He’s a player. Why is a discussion for the clinic. I’m just pointing out it’s time for the other riders to realize he's the main man they have to put time on, not each other.

One thing for sure, if TV is with the others on the final climb of stage 18, the others are going to be very nervous. If he could actually hold this lead to the final ITT, he would almost certainly keep the MJ. He’s not noted as a great ITT rider, but then he wasn’t supposed to be a great climber, either. I’d be very surprised if he couldn’t stay within 2’ of Evans. No one else could threaten him at that point.

 

[spalco]

No, I agree, it's not a joke. In my opinion since today the answer clearly is: yes, absolutely!

 

[Bavarianrider]

If he keeps his form, who should stop him?

 

[Moondance]

I hope not. I would lose all respect for a rider who was one of my very favorites in the peloton.

 

[El Pistolero]

Magic 8. Vanendert was there as well.

 

[saganftw]

i am sorry you dont believe in miracles

 

[Ferminal]

As a pre-warning, there is a thread in The Clinic for Tommy, so let's steer well clear of those discussions in this thread.

Tommy will lose 1.5-2minutes to Evans in the ITT, so at this stage he's borderline, if the climbing results of the Pyrenees are replicated next week.

 

[mulletCobra]

He looked like he wanted to attack today. If he gets an inkling of weakness from the other riders he may very well do so. I don't think he has enough of a time gap to win currently, but If the others don't make some serious moves, it's his to lose.

 

[Jeanne]

TV is surprisingly consistent. If he continues like that I think the answer is yes! he can win this. But I have to admit, I got no real clue about his ITT. But I don't think he is THAT much worse than the Schlecks, and with a non-superfit contador and the 4min or so he has on Evans, why not?

Everything else I think about him is dicussed in the clinic

 

[luckyboy]

Yeah he can. We're in unknown territory in terms of predicting how he'll do on Alpe d'Huez and the TT though.

 

[roundabout]

He will attack on the downhills to Gap and Pinerolo and get enough margin that way.

I am 100% serious.

 

[Ferminal]

He will attack on the downhills to Gap and Pinerolo and get enough margin that way.

I am 100% serious.

Yes, he will definitely have a go those days.

 

[Race Radio]

The slopes of the Alps are steeper then the Pyrenees. It will be hard him to get back on and easier for an attack to stick.

I hope he makes it but I am not convinced.

 

[hrotha]

I don't think he'll win, but only because his ITT is too weak.

Gods I hate the fact that most posts in this thread (including mine) are 100% serious.

 

[dabaideschbi]

no chance for him in my opinion plus i wish he doesn't win it cause i prefer other riders

 

[spalco]

TV is surprisingly consistent. If he continues like that I think the answer is yes! he can win this. But I have to admit, I got no real clue about his ITT. But I don't think he is THAT much worse than the Schlecks, and with a non-superfit contador and the 4min or so he has on Evans, why not?

Everything else I think about him is dicussed in the clinic

He has 4 minutes on Contador, but only 2 on Evans.

I've just looked through some of the ITT times from previous TdF and Voeckler is consistently a minute behind Evans even on the prologues, up to 4 on longer TTs, but who knows with the improvement Voeckler is showing this year maybe 2 minutes is enough...

 

[nevada]

no chance for him in my opinion plus i wish he doesn't win it cause i prefer other riders

Prefer him way more than the idiot brothers. They are the most annoying riders ever !

 

[luckyboy]

I'd hate him to lose it on the final TT, that would be tragic. Think he might lose it on Alpe d'Huez and finish top 5.

 

[Bavarianrider]

As a pre-warning, there is a thread in The Clinic for Tommy, so let's steer well clear of those discussions in this thread.

Tommy will lose 1.5-2minutes to Evans in the ITT, so at this stage he's borderline, if the climbing results of the Pyrenees are replicated next week.

He didn't even lose 2 minutes in the Dauphine

 

[dabaideschbi]

Prefer him way more than the idiot brothers. They are the most annoying riders ever !

i agree with you! i don't want the schleck brothers to win cuz they are just pathetic! AC or Ivan basso would be perfect for me!

 

[Jeanne]

I'd hate him to lose it on the final TT, that would be tragic.

that would indeed be sad. no matter how things turn out for him, the way he keeps defending is just amazing, and I'm sure he won't stop doing that. truly great!

 

[Sidbike]

After today I think he thinks he can do it. For that reason I too think he can do it.

War of attrition. He's the only person justified to play defense. Maybe if he keeps the 2ish minutes he'll play defense but if he loses enough time on a stage (say 60-90 seconds) he might just make a crazy all or nothing attack that could blow up the race.

Are his days as a breakaway specialist (in stage races) over now? Will people let him go next year?

 

[Carlo Algatrensig]

I wonder if he's starting to regret not working with Gilbert and Martin the other day when they got off the front near the end? The 30 to 60 seconds that they might have been able to grab could possibly have been a good thing to get.

 

[Dutchsmurf]

I think he can do it. The way he was riding today showed that he might be one of the strongest of the contenders. At times it looked like he could go a lot faster but wasn't sure about himself. His results in TTs say nothing, because usually he just doesn't bother. With the yellow jersey effect I think he can easily hold off Evans, who hasn't done a good TT for quite some time too.

Once he loses yellow he will be out of the top 5 fast tho.

 

[spalco]

TV vs CE in TdF TTs

2004 (no Evans)
stage 1
141 Thomas VOECKLER + 00' 42"
stage 16 (mountain)
88 Thomas VOECKLER + 06' 36"
stage 18
85 Thomas VOECKLER + 09' 41"

2005
stage 1
35 Cadel EVANS + 01' 41"
131 Thomas VOECKLER+ 02' 48"
stage 20
7 Cadel EVANS + 02' 06"
153 Thomas VOECKLER + 13' 08"

2006
prologue
14 Cadel EVANS + 00' 04"
55 Thomas VOECKLER + 00' 17"
stage 7
11 Cadel EVANS + 00' 48"
46 Thomas VOECKLER + 03' 03"
stage19
8 Cadel EVANS + 02' 30"
35 Thomas VOECKLER + 05' 07"

2007
prologue
17 Cadel EVANS + 00' 36"
66 Thomas VOECKLER + 00' 52"
stage 13
2 Cadel EVANS + 01' 14"
152 Thomas VOECKLER + 10' 42"
stage 19
2 Cadel EVANS + 00' 51"
47 Thomas VOECKLER + 05' 50"

2008
stage 4
4 Cadel EVANS + 00' 27"
68 Thomas VOECKLER + 02' 53"
stage 20
7 Cadel EVANS + 02' 05"
145 Thomas VOECKLER + 11' 19"

2009
stage 1
5 Cadel EVANS + 00' 23"
135 Thomas VOECKLER + 02' 13"
stage 18
12 Cadel EVANS + 01' 14"
115 Thomas VOECKLER + 05' 12"

2010
prologze
23 Cadel EVANS + 00' 39"
187 Thomas VOECKLER + 01' 31"
stage 19
128 Thomas VOECKLER + 09' 11"
166 Cadel EVANS + 10' 57"

Obvious from that is, that Voeckler has had some truly horrible TTs, far worse than the average TdF rider even, but some ok ones too.