Can Voeckler win this? Serious?

[Merckx index]

basso and evans are doing exactly what they should do if they want to win the tour.

if they want to go down in some blaze of glory then --please-- go ahead, attack!

Ivan wasn't that happy with the strategy today, though. From CN:

"I believe that the attacks that really hurt are the ones that come from a small group of riders. When you're in a group of 20 riders, the attacks don't make any difference," Basso lamented. "It's clear that to make the difference on these climbs you needed to make it hard from the bottom."

"For me to express myself to the best of my potential, I need to attack when there aren't many of us left. Today we didn't succeed in doing exactly what we wanted to."

Still, they were down to less than ten with quite a ways to go, I believe. Cunego was dropped about, what, more than 5 km from the summit I think. At that point, there was the two Schlecks, AC, Evans, TV, Basso. Samu was up ahead. If Basso couldn't make a successful attack then, not sure why he thinks he could have earlier, except that with his steady, grinding style, he would have had more time to pull away.

Sorry, there were nine guys in that final group, behind Van and Samu. Still, that should have been small enough for an attack.

People who think Voeckler couldn't hold a two minute lead in the ITT over Evans are thinking of his past ITT performances. But since his climbing ability is much improved, it's not unreasonable to think his TTng, is, too. Without going into clinic issues, I'll just say that whatever is behind his better climbing is likely to improve TTng, too. IOW, he didn't just lose some weight to improve his power/weight ratio. His power is greater, and that will translate into a faster ITT.

 

[Parrulo]

even with this lead on the itt alone he would still get passed by evans and contador and prolly samu. he will crack big time next week and won't get to the time trial with yellow anyway

 

[jens_attacks]

The tour hasnt finished yet :S he allready lost time in one mountain stage and he has ridden like this before in 2004.

lol are you serious?did he respond then in 2004 to the top climbers most violent accelerations uphill?did he stay with them on the climb?
i repeat,today he was the strongest guy in the lead group,if he'd wanted to attack,he would have dropped most of the overall contenders.no way he will crack in the alps,all the french people is behind him now.read tomorrow's l'equipe,

 

[Gubby Allen]

Before today I'd have said you were bonkers. I expected him to be with them at the foot of the last climb, but to be at least 50 mins up it, lose about 5 mins - which would've put him about 9th on GC.

After today - and he looked in better shape than Contador & Frank, he'll outsee Cunego - he looks nailed on for Top 3 prior to the ITT and probably Top 5 at the end of it.

If I had to guess now I'd go Andy (sadly) - Cadel, Voeckler as the final 1-2-3.

 

[palmerq]

lol are you serious?did he respond then in 2004 to the top climbers most violent accelerations uphill?did he stay with them on the climb?
i repeat,today he was the strongest guy in the lead group,if he'd wanted to attack,he would have dropped most of the overall contenders.no way he will crack in the alps,all the french people is behind him now.read tomorrow's l'equipe,

in my opinion the competion was greater back then and from what I read his time up the climb is not radically different considering he is 7 years older and in his prime now, voeckler is a good rider hats off to him.

 

[Bumeington]

Ivan wasn't that happy with the strategy today, though. From CN:



Still, they were down to less than ten with quite a ways to go, I believe. Cunego was dropped about, what, more than 5 km from the summit I think. At that point, there was the two Schlecks, AC, Evans, TV, Basso. Samu was up ahead. If Basso couldn't make a successful attack then, not sure why he thinks he could have earlier, except that with his steady, grinding style, he would have had more time to pull away.

Sorry, there were nine guys in that final group, behind Van and Samu. Still, that should have been small enough for an attack.

People who think Voeckler couldn't hold a two minute lead in the ITT over Evans are thinking of his past ITT performances. But since his climbing ability is much improved, it's not unreasonable to think his TTng, is, too. Without going into clinic issues, I'll just say that whatever is behind his better climbing is likely to improve TTng, too. IOW, he didn't just lose some weight to improve his power/weight ratio. His power is greater, and that will translate into a faster ITT.

In the Dauphine, on the same course in Grenoble, TV was 1:58 behind Evans, I think 2 minutes is reasonably to expect, and anything closer than that will be a good performance from TV

 

[washoezephyr1]

Voekler was outstanding today. I think he hold his advantage till thursday. The Agnel with 7,900 feet of total climbing, the Izoard with 3200 feet, and the Galibier with 4593 feet from Briancon will turn this tour upside down for GC. I'm hoping for a miracle though, go Tommy!

 

[Cimber]

He has a chance. I dont think he will actually win it, but I would no longer say that its totally out of the picture.

 

[davestoller]

Lance's thoughts on Voeckler:

He wasnt swinging off the back 2day. He was one of the strongest. THe others werent assertive and/or agrressive enough to make a selection.

He has 2:06 on Evans. Final TT is 42 km. He's French. It's the Tour de FRANCE. He wont lose 2:06 in the final TTASSUMING...he keeps them close on Alpe d"huez. His teammate RIerre ROland has been a rockstar and continues to be.
Lastly, the dude knows how to suffer. Will be fun to watch . Enjoy

 

[davestoller]

in this year's tdf i have seen all of two riders show the kind of heart which makes a champion. Thor yesterday, and volkler. The "calculating" crap of that bunch going up today was sickening. Say what you boys will, or avoid saying what you think is/isn't important, but this man in yellow today should keep it to paris, he befits the jersey. And yes i do believe he can keep it to paris. Finally someone to root for (whats that? you say i need to know of something in your clinic forum? **** that!)

two thumbs up!!!:d

 

[Anonymous]

Yes, he could win it whether he will win i am not sure.

 

[The Hitch]

I dont think Voeckler has a chance in hell.

I think Arroyo, a genuine gt top 10 candidate, had a far better chance when he had the exact same advantage on Basso with Mortirolo + descent, Gavia + descent and a 16k tt to go.

Voeckler has the same gap, is no top 10 gc guy, has 2 Mtfs as well as 2 lesser days in the mountains to go, has a 40 k tt , and Basso at 3 minutes is the least of his worries.

I will cheer him on every step of the way, nonetheless.

 

[montagna lunga]

But there are a lot of riders no less tainted by that than Voeckler that you do like. Why hate on Tommy? Theres got to be something else.

At best, the dude may not like "the French"...closer to the truth: a ***-word version of Charles Barkley trash-talker Voelkler is more fun to watch than ANTYthing I read here....may have to break from the forum and get up earlier and see for myself more of the unedited coverage

 

[thehog]

"I've progressed since 2004," explained Voeckler, who has won a stage in the past two editions of the race.


"Right now I think I have the best form of my career. But even if I'd had the same condition in 2004, I don't think I would have been able to follow Armstrong."

 

[Polish]

"Right now I think I have the best form of my career. But even if I'd had the same condition in 2004, I don't think I would have been able to follow Armstrong."

"not be able to follow Lance" lol.
Well, duh.

 

[Polish]

GREAT ride today from Tommy, and I would LOVE to see him win the final GC.
But there is that serious matter of the "Colnago Jinx".

Colnago's have been ridden to Victory in EVERY Euro race except the TdF.
Vuelta Giro check check.
Rhonde Paris-Roubaix MSR check check check.
Every Monument and Classic and semi classic. check check check check.
Every Gran Fondo and Kermesse.
Colnago has claimed Victory in each and every one!

But NEVER the TdF.

Sure, some will argue that Eddy won the Tour on a Colnago.
But those Bikes were decal'd with Eddy's name - not "COLANGO".
Some say that THAT is the CAUSE of the jinx.
Ernesto's ancestors angry at the Decal Choice.

Rasmussen got close in 2007.
But some say Lance/Pat sabotaged that race to devalue the Colnago Brand.
Tinfoil conspiracy lol, the "sabotage theory"
It was "The Jinx"

So I am afraid Tommy's chance for Top Step in Paris is doomed.
Especially if it comes down to riding the ITT on a 'nago TT sled yikes.

 

[Andre.J]

I don't think he'll win it cause he didn't neutralize the break away when Flecha and Hoolegarden were run over. He just accelerated.

 

[orbis_25]

I'm just not buying into a TV victory. He is a far stronger, more consistent rider than he was in 2004 (which has seen him pick up some big wins since then), but we are yet to see any big attacks from the favourites, any "blow the race apart" rides. I'm impressed that TV managed to hold on today, and even more impressed that he was trying to close down the odd move, but everyone was just watching each other. Nobody really threw down. I think the damage will be done on stage 18, and he'll lose the jersey on stage 19.

I do think he'll finish in the top 10, though. He's a different rider from 2004, and I think he's tough enough and has the confidence in himself to not need the jersey to perform well in the ITT. Not winning the overall well, but getting a solid result well. If he does, then that's the end of his breakaway time in any stage race. No one wants a potential winner going in a break.

 

[davestoller]

Lance tweets about Voeckler winning, and now CN repeats his tweets--like Huffington Post, always willing to aggregate other news and info sources--so people click the link and read, but then go on list the three hundred reasons Lance is wrong.

Really?

Bjarne Riis said the NUMBER 1 mission for any contender at this point is to attack Voeckler--that means Contador, Schlecks, Evans etc. THe fact they didnt dislodge him today, according to Riis, makes him the odds on favorite if everyone rides the same.

Paul and Phil at the end of the broadcast stated--he has hung on one of the most difficult stages ending on one of the most devastating climbs, so he MUST be considred a real threat.

But when Lance tweets, CN goes purple.
Way to stay classy guys.

But when

 

[Zaschrona]

He won't win this, 2.06 on Evans aren't enough for him. And he won't gain time on him in Alps..

 

[Scansorial]

Has Voeckler ever had to ride a meaningful TT? Is he a bad TTer or does he just never have a reason to go hard?

I think if the TT went down tomorrow he'd hang onto the jersey. He'll probably lose time on Stage 19, though.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Yes he will. The winners at the Plateau de Beille always win the TdF.

Serious, the only way to beat him now is if someone is (real) attacking. And it seems AC is the only one who would be willing to do...

 

[palmerq]

Has Voeckler ever had to ride a meaningful TT? Is he a bad TTer or does he just never have a reason to go hard?

I think if the TT went down tomorrow he'd hang onto the jersey. He'll probably lose time on Stage 19, though.

only one I can remember is when he was riding for the white jersey in 2004 tour he lost a huge amount of time to karpets, but that was 7 years ago and he has improved greatly as a rider since then but I have no idea about his tt but I doubt it is good, although if he was in yellow for the final time trial I think he would put in a very good performance.... but all of this doesn't matter voeckler will not be in yellow or close to it by the time of the time trial.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

In this year's TdF I have seen all of two riders show the kind of heart which makes a champion. Thor yesterday, and Volkler. The "calculating" crap of that bunch going up today was sickening. Say what you boys will, or avoid saying what you think is/isn't important, but this man in yellow today should keep it to Paris, he befits the jersey. And yes I do believe he can keep it to Paris. Finally someone to root for (whats that? you say I need to know of something in your clinic forum? **** that!)

1+ Totally agree with everything.

Someone with guts. No crybaby like Schleck.

 

[warmfuzzies]

At this point, I'll root for anyone who is willing to give 100% and catalyze a selection among the strongest 12 riders.