Cavendish 6-4 for TdF Points Jersey

[Dalakhani]

Cavendish is available at 6-4 (i.e. 2.5).

Seems long to me.

What are people's thoughts?

BTW other odds (best UK odds - expressed in decimal):

Petacchi 5
Hushovd 9
Eddy Boss 12
Joaquín Rojas 14
Gilbert 15
Farrar 18

Where do you see the value?

Steve

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

I haven't looked at it properly yet.
But based on the course I expect an unusual winner. Someone good enough to get points in a bunch gallop, while being able to also get points in the gilbert-type stages. While being willing to go for the intermediate also.

I dunno... I feel like a Matthews, Sagan or Degonkolb a year or two older and participating would be a more likely candidate.

I dunno om EBH's condition, but of he was in peak form (unlikely now) and firing I'd rate him a real shot.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Cavendish won't win. Too many stages that he won't be in contention that guys like Petacchi will.

Ale-jet will win again.

 

[Dalakhani]

Do you guys think Gilbert may fancy it? There are a couple of stages that may suit him.

Also, will the changes to intermediate sprints is going to have much of an effect?

Steve

 

[just some guy]

Rojas @ 14 not a bad bet

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Do you guys think Gilbert may fancy it? There are a couple of stages that may suit him.

Also, will the changes to intermediate sprints is going to have much of an effect?

Steve

he is probably good enough to come around the tenth in a bunch gallop if he wants also.

so yes I rate him a chance, and yes JSG I think rojas is not bad either.

 

[Ferminal]

Cavendish is way too short. He might win 5 stages, but days where he's dropped or doesn't contest he gets nothing. If someone like Petacchi can consistently get top5 then they will have a good chance.

We don't really know how the intermediate sprints will play out on the road.

Overall there is far too much uncertainty to take anyone at those odds. Tentatively I'd probably back Gilbert and Hushovd at those prices, but can see myself not betting the Points classification at all.

Cav still favourite but wouldn't get on him for less than 3/1.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

I'll add the sprinters class. in my all jersey multi I do.

Dunno who i'll pick yet, but i suspect this will be the class that makes the bet valuable

... and make me lose..

 

[gilbertador]

Id say Rojas or Hushovd, they can do more than Gilbert on the flat and compete uphill, Gilbert will have domestique work to do, Cav no where pettachi is the only other contender

 

[Dalakhani]

Betfair now have a market for this.

 

[Poursuivant]

Surprised a lot of you are ruling out Cav. He is my tip for green this year.

 

[Frosty]

Thing is that people like Hushovd and EBH may do well on some of the uphill sprints but their teams may well concentrate on Farrar and Swift respectively on the flat stages. Petacchi's Lampre team seem to me to have not many goals, Petacchi for sprints and possible green, Cunego for the overall although i suppose the steepest sprints could work for him too. Sky and Garmin will also have to think about positioning their overall contenders for the uphill sprints to make sure no time gaps become established.

 

[patrick767]

Thor can win regular sprints (though Cav has the edge there), slight uphill finishes, and can break away on harder stages to pick up the now more important intermediate points. I'd go with him.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Goss @ 61 is worth a few a little bet just in case.