Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[P4rthen0n]

"he can then drop him every time"... ok. Why didn't we think of that. Like in Dauphiné... when Evenepoel crashed and had allergies.

Visma needs to play Jorgenson as a trump card, like they did Roglic in 2022. Either that or he will be domestique for Vingegaard when it comes down to it. But i would be very much surprised if Jorgenson would turn out to be a threat in the mountains.

This is my take on it too.
If Visma wants to have a shot at wining the Tour de France 2025, they have to use Jorgensen as they used Roglic in 2022. That's the only way.
I don't think it's worth it to have a repeat of 2024 tactics (as in Jorgensen going to the front of the peloton and setting up a death pace), they can't beat Pogacar like that.
Visma has to go the 1 and 2 punch. Force Pogacar to close down a couple attacks and tire himself out.
It's a long shot, but it's the only one available if Visma wants to try to go for 1st place. Otherwise we all know it's Pogacar 1st, Vingegaard 2nd and probably Remco 3rd.

Ofc all of this goes out the window if Pogacar wises up and just goes thermonuclear at the start of the climb...

 

[houtdffan]

Would like Remco just to set his devastating pace for once like he did at Pico Jano.

Quit waiting for the other aliens and dictate once. Probably doesn't work, but he rides his best when he rides like that. It has worked against Vingo before (Stage 8, 2023 Vuelta)

Of course, that would require replacing his DS with a box of rocks, as a box of rocks is many times smarter than his DS

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

This is my take on it too.
If Visma wants to have a shot at wining the Tour de France 2025, they have to use Jorgensen as they used Roglic in 2022. That's the only way.
I don't think it's worth it to have a repeat of 2024 tactics (as in Jorgensen going to the front of the peloton and setting up a death pace), they can't beat Pogacar like that.
Visma has to go the 1 and 2 punch. Force Pogacar to close down a couple attacks and tire himself out.
It's a long shot, but it's the only one available if Visma wants to try to go for 1st place. Otherwise we all know it's Pogacar 1st, Vingegaard 2nd and probably Remco 3rd.

Ofc all of this goes out the window if Pogacar wises up and just goes thermonuclear at the start of the climb...

Well, we'll have to see whether beating Pogacar is even remotely an option. Who knows they might have to tag-team Evenepoel instead, if Remco turns out to be a rival for Vingegaard's 2nd spot. If Jorgenson attacks when he's 8 minutes down in GC, i doubt Pog is going to panic, but Evenepoel might feel inclined to react. However, if Jorgenson is still within a few minutes after the first MTF stage, and he then attacks when Pogacar is isolated (with Almeida injured), that might get interesting.

 

[rghysens]

Would like Remco just to set his devastating pace for once like he did at Pico Jano.

His devasting pace at Pico Jano equalled 7W/kg for 20 minutes or so. And as Evenepoel stated a week or 2 back in an interview with Jan Baekelants in hln: in 2022 you would win with 2 minutes if you pushed 7W/kg for 20 minutes (like in css that year), while nowadays, it is just enough to hang on to the top 10.

 

[peterfin]

His devasting pace at Pico Jano equalled 7W/kg for 20 minutes or so. And as Evenepoel stated a week or 2 back in an interview with Jan Baekelants in hln: in 2022 you would win with 2 minutes if you pushed 7W/kg for 20 minutes (like in css that year), while nowadays, it is just enough to hang on to the top 10.

And he is absolutely right. Not just Pogacar and Vingegaard but also the Almeida's and Yates of this world are much better climbers now than a few years ago. And it's not just cllimb speed but also recovery. One of Remco's strengths is his recovery, being relatively fresh after a hard race or a long race of +200 km. In the TdF where most stages are hard, he looks much more vulnerable. Van der . Nys is crying that he just lacks the energy to play a role in the final and questions where all those guys are during the classics season.

 

[Red Rick]

His devasting pace at Pico Jano equalled 7W/kg for 20 minutes or so. And as Evenepoel stated a week or 2 back in an interview with Jan Baekelants in hln: in 2022 you would win with 2 minutes if you pushed 7W/kg for 20 minutes (like in css that year), while nowadays, it is just enough to hang on to the top 10.

Not one calculation gives 7.0 for that climb. Even the ones that are prone to overestimations have it as 6.5 for 30 minutes at best.

That Vuelta was clearly a level below his 2024 TdF level

 

[KoopaCycling]

Honestly, take away Vingegaard and Pogacar and we'll see such a climb.
(it's even possible someone may keep his wheel, Mas did in the vuelta that stage)
But take away those 2 and Remco wins last year tour.

On a different note, there is one reason why i would be against remco joining Red Bull.
They will want Remco to compete at the tdf. Remco prob. wants that as well. Most fans want that.
But if he succeeds in podium this year. He'll have confirmed last year, and that after the 2 aliens he is currently top dog.
Sure there are the ayuso, almeida, roflic, jorgenson, del toro's of this world. But the way I see, if he podium this year, he's currently third best GT rider.

As such instead of focusing fully on the tour. I'd rather he checks out the parcours of the 3 GT. (Vuelta, Giro, Tour) and makes the GT that suits him best his main goal. Not necessarily the tour. I've said this before. Maybe do the tour as well if it fits your schedule. And obviously do the tour if the parcours suits him best that year.

He could take a leave out of Pogacar book. and rides 2 GT's. But i think Remco only has 1 major peak in him. Other peaks less high.

 

[greyclouds]

And he is absolutely right. Not just Pogacar and Vingegaard but also the Almeida's and Yates of this world are much better climbers now than a few years ago. And it's not just cllimb speed but also recovery. One of Remco's strengths is his recovery, being relatively fresh after a hard race or a long race of +200 km. In the TdF where most stages are hard, he looks much more vulnerable. Van der . Nys is crying that he just lacks the energy to play a role in the final and questions where all those guys are during the classics season.

At a GT level that is not one of his strengths. For classics season where you might have another hard race in 3-5 days, yes, but not at GT level when compared to his top competitors.

 

[KoopaCycling]

At a GT level that is not one of his strengths. For classics season where you might have another hard race in 3-5 days, yes, but not at GT level when compared to his top competitors.

Rly? outside of pogacar & Vingegaard?

 

[houtdffan]

His devasting pace at Pico Jano equalled 7W/kg for 20 minutes or so. And as Evenepoel stated a week or 2 back in an interview with Jan Baekelants in hln: in 2022 you would win with 2 minutes if you pushed 7W/kg for 20 minutes (like in css that year), while nowadays, it is just enough to hang on to the top 10.

Hasn't Remco's pace also improved? He isn't just pushing 7 W/kg over 20 minutes, he's also upped his game

 

[peterfin]

Hasn't Remco's pace also improved? He isn't just pushing 7 W/kg over 20 minutes, he's also upped his game

Actually, I have never seen an analysis showing 7 W/kg over 20 minutes. According to Watts2win he did 6.8 W/kg in Catalunya (2023). He did 3x 6.4 W/kg in 2024 over 40 minutes.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

That Vuelta was clearly a level below his 2024 TdF level

He said in an interview last week that even last year's TDF was below his Vuelta'22 numbers. Not sure i buy it, but that's what he said.

 

[Froome]

He said in an interview last week that even last year's TDF was below his Vuelta'22 numbers. Not sure i buy it, but that's what he said.

He could be doing better numbers last year than Vuelta 2022, and still be a level below.

Bernal was doing better numbers than in 2019 and he is a level below than what he was in the past.

Nevertheless, looking at the gaps evenepoel had for everybody except pogacar and Vingegaard(in just some stages), i think evenepoel was a level above La Vuelta 2022.

It is also true, Roglic, evenepoel and Vingegaard could not be they re best possible version last year due to crashes.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

He could be doing better numbers last year than Vuelta 2022, and still be a level below.

Bernal was doing better numbers than in 2019 and he is a level below than what he was in the past.

Nevertheless, looking at the gaps evenepoel had for everybody except pogacar and Vingegaard(in just some stages), i think evenepoel was a level above La Vuelta 2022.

It is also true, Roglic, evenepoel and Vingegaard could not be they re best possible version last year due to crashes.

I'm not sure whether you misread, but it's the opposite of the situation in your first 2 sentences. He claims his numbers 3 years ago were better than last year. Bernal claimed the opposite.

 

[Froome]

I'm not sure whether you misread, but it's the opposite of the situation in your first 2 sentences. He claims his numbers 3 years ago were better than last year. Bernal claimed the opposite.

I understood what he said, but it is impossible to be true.

 

[AlpRaid]

I believe he said that he has been unable to increase his watts/kg ceiling since 2022 Vuelta. So 2022 Vuelta (before his crash) was likely his best form. Arguably 2023 Giro may have been even better. He was optimally prepared but thwarted by Covid.

here's hoping the main reason he has been unable to improve is the constant crashing. A year or two (or more) without any major crashes would certainly help, I imagine.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I believe he said that he has been unable to increase his watts/kg ceiling since 2022 Vuelta. So 2022 Vuelta (before his crash) was likely his best form. Arguably 2023 Giro may have been even better. He was optimally prepared but thwarted by Covid.

here's hoping the main reason he has been unable to improve is the constant crashing. A year or two (or more) without any major crashes would certainly help, I imagine.

He went to that Giro 2kg+ heavier than the Vuelta he won. There is no way his w/kg were going to be higher there.

He also gave his constant struggles with injuries/crashes as a prime reason why he hasn't been able to improve.

 

[KoopaCycling]

what a show, a pity the peloton did not miscalculate. Would have loved to see a MVDP victory.
All safe. Remco survived the first 9 stages. And now the Tour begins in earnest tomorrow.

 

[AlpRaid]

He went to that Giro 2kg+ heavier than the Vuelta he won. There is no way his w/kg were going to be higher there.

He also gave his constant struggles with injuries/crashes as a prime reason why he hasn't been able to improve.

I know, but he had a perfect prep and his opening TT demonstrated that. perhaps his absolute watts were better so the extra kg or so would not have mattered. But that is the last time he had uninterrupted prep.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I know, but he had a perfect prep and his opening TT demonstrated that. perhaps his absolute watts were better so the extra kg or so would not have mattered. But that is the last time he had uninterrupted prep.

Opening TT was flat and straight until the final 1-2km when it had a bump. If anything he would have benefitted from being a bit heavier (at least in case of muscle), but that doesn't translate well in the mountains. So him winning that TT dominantly doesn't prove much in terms of w/kg, except indeed being fit and in form.

 

[houtdffan]

He said in an interview last week that even last year's TDF was below his Vuelta'22 numbers. Not sure i buy it, but that's what he said.

I can believe it.

His first week was climbing at a level we have never seen from him before or since

 

[Extinction]

I can believe it.

His first week was climbing at a level we have never seen from him before or since

Against Roglic and Mas, however, not Pogi and Vingo.

 

[Ulle97]

Do you think Remco can stay with the aliens today?
I think there will be roughly 15-20 riders left on the last climb with 30-45secs between them.

 

[Berniece]

Do you think Remco can stay with the aliens today?
I think there will be roughly 15-20 riders left on the last climb with 30-45secs between them.

I think he might win today. Hope it gets really hard, and he said beforehand that if he has the legs he is planning to attack. If we are "lucky", Pogacar will put the pressure on Vingegaard to close that gap, and that might result in him getting away.

 

[peterfin]

Remco said he wants to win a normal stage too (so not a TT). This one is probably high on his list. He gives the stage 5 stars and expects a hard race. However, it's not a classic but a stage in the TdF. So, yes, he needs to be lucky. If Vingegaard and Pogacar stay on his wheel he won't win.