BikeCentric said:He cannot climb. We should see some tighter sprints after the mountains put Cav's legs through the meat grinder or force him to drop out. Heck that'll be another fun little Tour sub-drama to watch right there: can Cav gut it out over the mountains for the first time and keep grinding out points for the Green jersey? His confidence level will be simply scary if he can do that and win Green at the end at only 23.
I'm not sure that I agree with the analysis that he can not climb. After all, last year he managed to get over the Peyresourde, Aspin, Tourmalet, Hautacam and Portel and then win back to back stages before dropping out at Digne Les Bains admitting to being knackered and leaving to prepare for the Olympics.
This year he's dropped 4kgs and has no target looming on his diary a month after the end of le tour. I don't think that he'll take green this year though. He'll have to wait until next year before that happens. Hushovd for his second jersey is my bet.