Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[Kedjan]

It looks like Pogi wants to drop two watt bombs and then transform into defensive mode. Let's see how it goes: I'm not expecting large differences between top2 but if Pogi increases his advantage on those two stages then Vingo's victory prospects will look poor.

Like Pog points out, this year is different, we don't have an easier 2nd week like we use to, now both week 2 and 3 are hard. That might make week 3 tougher than usual. So it makes sense that Pog might want to try to put away the tour already in week 2. But if he fails he might have spent some extra energy which could make week 3 slightly more challenging. If Vinge doesn't give up time in the Pyrenees we might have a challenge on our hands. But it will be a tall order indeed.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Like Pog points out, this year is different, we don't have an easier 2nd week like we use to, now both week 2 and 3 are hard. That might make week 3 tougher than usual. So it makes sense that Pog might want to try to put away the tour already in week 2. But if he fails he might have spent some extra energy which could make week 3 slightly more challenging. If Vinge doesn't give up time in the Pyrenees we might have a challenge on our hands. But it will be a tall order indeed.

Vingo's minimal plan for the Pyrenees should be to stick to Pogacar's wheel and not lose time in the TT. If he can do it then the race will be open until late stages.

 

[Cycling111]

Like Pog points out, this year is different, we don't have an easier 2nd week like we use to, now both week 2 and 3 are hard. That might make week 3 tougher than usual. So it makes sense that Pog might want to try to put away the tour already in week 2. But if he fails he might have spent some extra energy which could make week 3 slightly more challenging. If Vinge doesn't give up time in the Pyrenees we might have a challenge on our hands. But it will be a tall order indeed.

This is said as if Vingegaard isn't going to waste energy.

The reality is that Vineggaard had a poor time trial, and one of the reasons could be that Pogacar pushed him to the limit the day before.

Let's see if Vingegaard isn't the one who's most exhausted in the third week.

 

[Kedjan]

This is said as if Vingegaard isn't going to waste energy.

The reality is that Vineggaard had a poor time trial, and one of the reasons could be that Pogacar pushed him to the limit the day before.

Let's see if Vingegaard isn't the one who's most exhausted in the third week.

Notice I use the words "could" and "might", thereby indicating it's not certain at all. You might well be right, maybe Pog will be the strongest. Vinge however is better prepared this year and both years he won he was strong in the third week.

But honestly, I don't think the difference in tiredness between them will be significant.

 

[MarioeTheo]

3 min gap at the end of the MTT.
This is the goal for Pogi to put on Vini.

Visma will panic and try to attack stage 14.
Then, Pogi only has to glue to Vini's wheel and launch a nuclear bomb at the final climb.

 

[Unchained]

Notice I use the words "could" and "might", thereby indicating it's not certain at all. You might well be right, maybe Pog will be the strongest. Vinge however is better prepared this year and both years he won he was strong in the third week.

But honestly, I don't think the difference in tiredness between them will be significant.

3 week WT grand tours are all about micro management, minimal gains, losses, collectively. Pogacar is using far less energy for very similar results to other riders..and this year his calorie conservation looks much more conspicuous, concentrated.
Video is not brand new, data still similar.

View: https://m.youtube.com/shorts/3ZbFsE-Kvag

 

[Kedjan]

3 week WT grand tours are all about micro management, minimal gains, losses, collectively. Pogacar is using far less energy for very similar results to other riders..and this year his calorie conservation looks much more conspicuous, concentrated.
Video is not brand new, data still similar.

View: https://m.youtube.com/shorts/3ZbFsE-Kvag

Wow, that is quite incredible if the measurement is correct. He has looked extremely relaxed on the bike last couple of years. What should be fairly hard efforts looks quite easy. I know his zone 2 is extraordinary high relatively speaking. And he didn't showed any sign of weakness last year in the tour after doing the giro, instead he rode better than ever. Must confess, talk about Vinge probably being stronger in week 3 sounds a bit hollow.

Sure Vinge is also an extraordinary athlete, his ability to recover we know is great.

Soon we will have our answers anyway. Is Pog still the king or have Vinge stepped up a level.

 

[hayneplane]

The strategy to win the Tour is very simple.
1. Go hard on Hautacam and Pogacar must attack with 5 km to and ne ver look back
If Vingegaard drops, better if not, he must continue his effort in order to put 1'30"-2' on Matteo.
2. Gain another 1' on Matteo and put him over 4' in the GC.
3. Just follow Vingegaard and counterattack him when you can.

Easy.

He should go from several km out like in Dauphine to get Vingo to fear going ultra deep to stay in the wheel at risking of cracking

 

[Cookster15]

He sounds very confident. But would be silly to underestimate a fresh and uninjured Vingegaard this year. Hautacam followed by the Peyragudes MTT could be decisive. Visma have some teammate cards to play with Matteo. Finally the exciting time of the Tour is almost here.

 

[Peyroteo94]

He should go from several km out like in Dauphine to get Vingo to fear going ultra deep to stay in the wheel at risking of cracking

13' close to your VO2 max is a deep and long effort.

 

[Peyroteo94]

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[Peyroteo94]

Fortunately he is ill. I was worried about his true level, now I know he can be in top shape in the last week.

 

[Extinction]

View: https://youtu.be/c7rhHdl1fdY?si=QBTCfZw_EYm8SvFd

 

[Peyroteo94]

View: https://youtu.be/c7rhHdl1fdY?si=QBTCfZw_EYm8SvFd

I have the impression he was so happy to arrive safe to the first rest day because he thought the only way for him to lose the Tour was a crash in one of these hectic early stages.

 

[Lequack]

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Some more

 

[Valv.Piti]

Quite obvious he wants to smash stage 12 and 13 like he did last year in the Pyrenees and settle into a defensive mindset from stage 14 and onwards. Very snart, its still a small gap to Jonas and Jorg. I expect similar numbers from last year on Hautacam and Peyragudes and effectively game over for Jonas if he doesnt crash.

 

[elguapo]

In the mountain stages, if not raining, UAE should use a rim brake for Pogi. Lighter in the mountains and for faster wheel change.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Quite obvious he wants to smash stage 12 and 13 like he did last year in the Pyrenees and settle into a defensive mindset from stage 14 and onwards. Very snart, its still a small gap to Jonas and Jorg. I expect similar numbers from last year on Hautacam and Peyragudes and effectively game over for Jonas if he doesnt crash.

The right strategy and what I have been saying the last 3 days (since Almeida left the Tour).

 

[Oldman]

Vingo's minimal plan for the Pyrenees should be to stick to Pogacar's wheel and not lose time in the TT. If he can do it then the race will be open until late stages.

There is one hilly and one sprint stage after stage 13 TT. The rest is all challenging with no apparent easy options...for anyone. It's going to be a trial to keep a position on GC, let alone advance a place. Now teams' support may be the first early casualty, too. While UAE is down Almeida what portion of any other team has riders that will set tempo capable of hurting all contenders?
You're missing the fact that up to this rest day, Vingo has been following that minimal plan to the exhaustion of most of this team and himself. The other contenders have had a relatively free ride save for dodging traffic furniture and facing TT result realities.

 

[pelotonIQ]

I think Visma will wait til after the Stage 13 TT results before they allow Jonas to seriously attack.

 

[pman]

That time trial seems like it'll be huge. If Jonas gains serious time, he'll become the favorite once again. If Pog can gain serious time, it's hard to imagine Jonas winning.

 

[Cookster15]

In the mountain stages, if not raining, UAE should use a rim brake for Pogi. Lighter in the mountains and for faster wheel change.

I could be wrong but pretty sure Pogacar's Colnago v5rs is already at the UCI minimum weight limit with discs? Nothing to be gained with rim brakes except faster wheel change.

 

[bNator]

I could be wrong but pretty sure Pogacar's Colnago v5rs is already at the UCI minimum weight limit with discs? Nothing to be gained with rim brakes except faster wheel change.

I would imagine one could lose a couple of seconds on a solo descent, though...

 

[Miha81]

He sounds very confident. But would be silly to underestimate a fresh and uninjured Vingegaard this year. Hautacam followed by the Peyragudes MTT could be decisive. Visma have some teammate cards to play with Matteo. Finally the exciting time of the Tour is almost here.

I was "all in" on best Tour in ages (level of first two weeks of 2023). Did not materialize in first 10 stages.

I cheer for Pog (and Rog) but secretly hope Jonas is up for a challenge as it is good for the race itself.

 

[Peyroteo94]

I think Visma will wait til after the Stage 13 TT results before they allow Jonas to seriously attack.

Big mistake. They no longer can use Matteo.