Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

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So...guess what happens if all Vingo does is "follow" all the way to Paris?
My point was of course that many Pogi fans have been talkning up Hautacam stage as stage where Pog will deliver the knockout blow. And if it doesn't happen they will probably be disappointed, understandably. They usually like to see Pog dominate and are probably a bit frustrated that he hasn't dropped Vinge already.

If Vinge can follow an attacking Pog on Hautacam it will be a huge achievement, especially given how strong Pog has been in the mountains. It will prove that Vinge also has reached a higher level.

But obviously it's not enough to just follow Pog, even if that is impressive in itself, he must also distance Pog. And that will be hard and I'm not that hopeful he can do it, certainly not on Hautacam. I still believe that Vinge's best chance, if he has any, are on really hard mountain stages (14, 18, 19), but I'm not certain this is true anymore.
 
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You don’t gap someone by more than a minute wheelsucking. lol
Of course, that's not in his DNA.
He can't and won't act like Vini.
He doesn't want to win only, he wants to smash Vini.

So for better or worse, he will attack and impose his will.
I just want to see a total annihilation on Thursday. I just want to see Vini crying like last year, knowing he doesn't have what it takes to win again. That's what I expect.

And then, Vini cracking mentally in the MTT.

Pure joy and happiness.
 
It would make me happier if he followed conservatively to draw out an attack by Vingo. A successful counterattack will yield a a much larger gain with less energy. Save a lot of bullets (spend more or Vingo’s) ahead of the time trial where the real mental battle takes place. Gains or losses mean something there for each camp.

Smarter racing yields more race days and a longer career. That’s what I want to see.
 
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The Mountain TT is where I expect them to be close.
In fact I see it as a possibility that Jonas beats Tadej there.
It's a fresh effort and Vingegaard will be good.
Unlike 2022 and 2023 Pog 2.0 wants a long and hard race to smother his opponents.
 
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It would make me happier if he followed conservatively to draw out an attack by Vingo. A successful counterattack will yield a a much larger gain with less energy. Save a lot of bullets (spend more or Vingo’s) ahead of the time trial where the real mental battle takes place. Gains or losses mean something there for each camp.

Smarter racing yields more race days and a longer career. That’s what I want to see.
Probably a smarter tactic, but it doesn't sound like something Pogi would do or what most of his fans want to see tomorrow.

He could humiliate Vinge by inviting him to attack and close down every attack like nothing and then counterattack. Vinge will be scared to attack first, and if he does, it won't be a full on attack because he will fear a counterattack he can't follow. Instead he will hope a weaker attack will be enough to trigger Pog to counterattack.

To me it seems like Vinge can't really do it himself, he need an attacking Pog, that he manages to follow, and that hopefully overextends, then Vinge might have a chance. As I have said before, following Pog is one thing (extremely hard), dropping Pog is another thing (nearly impossible given their current level).
 
I mean it might make sense for Pogi to put more time in Vingo even if he has to force it. If Vingo's condition only allows him to stay on Pogi's wheels across shorter efforts, than there is a chance Visma's strategy is to keep it as close to 1:17 as possible and hope for a mishap on pog across the balance of the race.

The whole vanquishing the foe stuff is just dumb and something people want who don't actually understand the racing.
 
I mean it might make sense for Pogi to put more time in Vingo even if he has to force it. If Vingo's condition only allows him to stay on Pogi's wheels across shorter efforts, than there is a chance Visma's strategy is to keep it as close to 1:17 as possible and hope for a mishap on pog across the balance of the race.

The whole vanquishing the foe stuff is just dumb and something people want who don't actually understand the racing.
With Yates,Kuss, Remco, Onley, Benoot, Jorgenson form being decent, if Pogacar finds himself isolated because his guys are sick,tired, had to quit, he will have to chase everything because he can't risk it working out. @10-20 minutes sounds crazy but UAE needs to be concerned if script flips and instead of everyday being a good day for Pog, he is due for some down and someone else might come up with some good rides, maybe even a couple in a row.. You are right that nobody is going to surprisingly destroy Pogacar, that's fantasy but as you see with Kuss catastrophe miscalculations do happen and sometimes the end of the movie is a surprise!! In my experience if everyone says weeks before the end of the event that the outcome is obvious it seldom is..
I remind you that just a couple of months ago I didn't think bees hate Juan Ayuso, didn't think Yates would wake up, Carapaz would go to sleep and that ding bats drivers in team car tell some green Mexican kid to wait to chase, so crazy unexpected stuff happens all the time!!
 
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It's just 10.9k and tha actual climb is 8k at 7,6 %. Doubt the time differences will be that big. What would destroy count as here? 20? 30s?
I am expecting a 1 minute gap, with a 7.4w / kg performance from Pogi.

Vini will go very deep, entering in his dark zone to limit his losses in the Hautacam stage.
And then Pogi will smash him in the MTT.

I cannot wait.
 
My point was of course that many Pogi fans have been talkning up Hautacam stage as stage where Pog will deliver the knockout blow. And if it doesn't happen they will probably be disappointed, understandably. They usually like to see Pog dominate and are probably a bit frustrated that he hasn't dropped Vinge already.

If Vinge can follow an attacking Pog on Hautacam it will be a huge achievement, especially given how strong Pog has been in the mountains. It will prove that Vinge also has reached a higher level.

But obviously it's not enough to just follow Pog, even if that is impressive in itself, he must also distance Pog. And that will be hard and I'm not that hopeful he can do it, certainly not on Hautacam. I still believe that Vinge's best chance, if he has any, are on really hard mountain stages (14, 18, 19), but I'm not certain this is true anymore.
Jonas has to do very well on Hautecam and hope Matteo is there, too. Then there is the TT the next day which is more of the same and then followed by the Col du Tourmalet, Col d'Aspin, and Col de Peyresourde of Stage 14 leading to the finish climb. A day off and then Mt. Ventoux to reveal depth of form. This is a brutal stretch for the best guys and it wouldn't surprise me if Primoz hits a nice average of effort during those to creep up the charts. It'll get complicated if there aren't clear time gaps established before 18 and 19. Let's hope for our sadistic viewing public it isn't over but IMO it'll be done.
 
The strategy to win the Tour is very simple.
1. Go hard on Hautacam and Pogacar must attack with 5 km to go and never look back
If Vingegaard drops, better if not, he must continue his effort in order to put 1'30"-2' on Matteo.
2. Gain another 1' on Matteo and put him over 4' in the GC.
3. Just follow Vingegaard and counterattack him when you can.

Easy.
 
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Nah, Teddy is unbeatable in 20 minutes climbs when he is in peak shape
He probably is. Not that it matter that much, but Vinge was just 7s behind Pog to time point 1 (up to La Turbie) in last stage itt last year. Vinge will do well on the mtt, they will be well ahead of the rest, but I agree Pog should win. I predict 10-15s.
 
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I am expecting a 1 minute gap, with a 7.4w / kg performance from Pogi.

Vini will go very deep, entering in his dark zone to limit his losses in the Hautacam stage.
And then Pogi will smash him in the MTT.

I cannot wait.
Don't know if you are overly optimistic or sarcastic! :)

Stage 12 isn't that hard and it will be after an easy stage and a rest day. Vinge should recover by the mountain time trial. His ability to recover is excellent, just like Pog’s.
 
The Mountain TT is where I expect them to be close.
In fact I see it as a possibility that Jonas beats Tadej there.
It's a fresh effort and Vingegaard will be good.
Unlike 2022 and 2023 Pog 2.0 wants a long and hard race to smother his opponents.
How is Vingegaard going to beat him when he has to wait a couple of minutes before going into Pogacar's slip stream?
 
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“I feel it’s going to be an interesting week,” Pogačar said. “The Hautacam and the time trial at Peyragudes, these two stages I am looking forward to.”

Just that statement will put the fear into everyone!

Vinge better bring his absolute A-game or else the Pyrenees will be a nightmare for him and Visma.
 
“I feel it’s going to be an interesting week,” Pogačar said. “The Hautacam and the time trial at Peyragudes, these two stages I am looking forward to.”

Just that statement will put the fear into everyone!

Vinge better bring his absolute A-game or else the Pyrenees will be a nightmare for him and Visma.
It can strike fear and overcommitment on these stages. Fatigue will be a factor on Stage 14 and offer up more opportunities for the pure climbers. This may be when team efforts to date show the true impact.
 
“I feel it’s going to be an interesting week,” Pogačar said. “The Hautacam and the time trial at Peyragudes, these two stages I am looking forward to.”

Just that statement will put the fear into everyone!

Vinge better bring his absolute A-game or else the Pyrenees will be a nightmare for him and Visma.

It looks like Pogi wants to drop two watt bombs and then transform into defensive mode. Let's see how it goes: I'm not expecting large differences between top2 but if Pogi increases his advantage on those two stages then Vingo's victory prospects will look poor.
 
“I feel it’s going to be an interesting week,” Pogačar said. “The Hautacam and the time trial at Peyragudes, these two stages I am looking forward to.”

Just that statement will put the fear into everyone!

Vinge better bring his absolute A-game or else the Pyrenees will be a nightmare for him and Visma.
I think this is whats going to happen on stage 12, visma hard paces col du soulor and jorgenson attacks on the top of col des borderes tryin to isolate pog in the valley may be create a granon again. Imo pog just has to not panic in this situation by not responding to jorgenson and wait for adam & narvaez who could be 30 secs back. They will ride him back to hautacam with not more than a minute behind jorgenson & we know what he did to jorg in isola last year.