Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[scribers]

It would make me happier if he followed conservatively to draw out an attack by Vingo. A successful counterattack will yield a a much larger gain with less energy. Save a lot of bullets (spend more or Vingo’s) ahead of the time trial where the real mental battle takes place. Gains or losses mean something there for each camp.

Smarter racing yields more race days and a longer career. That’s what I want to see.

 

[Rou]

The Mountain TT is where I expect them to be close.
In fact I see it as a possibility that Jonas beats Tadej there.
It's a fresh effort and Vingegaard will be good.
Unlike 2022 and 2023 Pog 2.0 wants a long and hard race to smother his opponents.

 

[Kedjan]

It would make me happier if he followed conservatively to draw out an attack by Vingo. A successful counterattack will yield a a much larger gain with less energy. Save a lot of bullets (spend more or Vingo’s) ahead of the time trial where the real mental battle takes place. Gains or losses mean something there for each camp.

Smarter racing yields more race days and a longer career. That’s what I want to see.

Probably a smarter tactic, but it doesn't sound like something Pogi would do or what most of his fans want to see tomorrow.

He could humiliate Vinge by inviting him to attack and close down every attack like nothing and then counterattack. Vinge will be scared to attack first, and if he does, it won't be a full on attack because he will fear a counterattack he can't follow. Instead he will hope a weaker attack will be enough to trigger Pog to counterattack.

To me it seems like Vinge can't really do it himself, he need an attacking Pog, that he manages to follow, and that hopefully overextends, then Vinge might have a chance. As I have said before, following Pog is one thing (extremely hard), dropping Pog is another thing (nearly impossible given their current level).

 

[scribers]

I mean it might make sense for Pogi to put more time in Vingo even if he has to force it. If Vingo's condition only allows him to stay on Pogi's wheels across shorter efforts, than there is a chance Visma's strategy is to keep it as close to 1:17 as possible and hope for a mishap on pog across the balance of the race.

The whole vanquishing the foe stuff is just dumb and something people want who don't actually understand the racing.

 

[Unchained]

I mean it might make sense for Pogi to put more time in Vingo even if he has to force it. If Vingo's condition only allows him to stay on Pogi's wheels across shorter efforts, than there is a chance Visma's strategy is to keep it as close to 1:17 as possible and hope for a mishap on pog across the balance of the race.

The whole vanquishing the foe stuff is just dumb and something people want who don't actually understand the racing.

With Yates,Kuss, Remco, Onley, Benoot, Jorgenson form being decent, if Pogacar finds himself isolated because his guys are sick,tired, had to quit, he will have to chase everything because he can't risk it working out. @10-20 minutes sounds crazy but UAE needs to be concerned if script flips and instead of everyday being a good day for Pog, he is due for some down and someone else might come up with some good rides, maybe even a couple in a row.. You are right that nobody is going to surprisingly destroy Pogacar, that's fantasy but as you see with Kuss catastrophe miscalculations do happen and sometimes the end of the movie is a surprise!! In my experience if everyone says weeks before the end of the event that the outcome is obvious it seldom is..
I remind you that just a couple of months ago I didn't think bees hate Juan Ayuso, didn't think Yates would wake up, Carapaz would go to sleep and that ding bats drivers in team car tell some green Mexican kid to wait to chase, so crazy unexpected stuff happens all the time!!

 

[MarioeTheo]

The Mountain TT is where I expect them to be close.
In fact I see it as a possibility that Jonas beats Tadej there.
It's a fresh effort and Vingegaard will be good.
Unlike 2022 and 2023 Pog 2.0 wants a long and hard race to smother his opponents.

I expect the other way around, Pogi destroying Vini in the MTT.

Pure madness.

 

[Kedjan]

I expect the other way around, Pogi destroying Vini in the MTT.

Pure madness.

It's just 10.9k and tha actual climb is 8k at 7,6 %. Doubt the time differences will be that big. What would destroy count as here? 20? 30s?

 

[Peyroteo94]

So they don't expect more from A Yates?!

Other doms where great however. Especially Wellens, best dom in the tour, and Narvaez.

They should for sure. He is not a top15 climber. What a decrease in performance.

 

[Peyroteo94]

The Mountain TT is where I expect them to be close.
In fact I see it as a possibility that Jonas beats Tadej there.
It's a fresh effort and Vingegaard will be good.
Unlike 2022 and 2023 Pog 2.0 wants a long and hard race to smother his opponents.

Nah, Teddy is unbeatable in 20 minutes climbs when he is in peak shape

 

[MarioeTheo]

It's just 10.9k and tha actual climb is 8k at 7,6 %. Doubt the time differences will be that big. What would destroy count as here? 20? 30s?

I am expecting a 1 minute gap, with a 7.4w / kg performance from Pogi.

Vini will go very deep, entering in his dark zone to limit his losses in the Hautacam stage.
And then Pogi will smash him in the MTT.

I cannot wait.

 

[Oldman]

My point was of course that many Pogi fans have been talkning up Hautacam stage as stage where Pog will deliver the knockout blow. And if it doesn't happen they will probably be disappointed, understandably. They usually like to see Pog dominate and are probably a bit frustrated that he hasn't dropped Vinge already.

If Vinge can follow an attacking Pog on Hautacam it will be a huge achievement, especially given how strong Pog has been in the mountains. It will prove that Vinge also has reached a higher level.

But obviously it's not enough to just follow Pog, even if that is impressive in itself, he must also distance Pog. And that will be hard and I'm not that hopeful he can do it, certainly not on Hautacam. I still believe that Vinge's best chance, if he has any, are on really hard mountain stages (14, 18, 19), but I'm not certain this is true anymore.

Jonas has to do very well on Hautecam and hope Matteo is there, too. Then there is the TT the next day which is more of the same and then followed by the Col du Tourmalet, Col d'Aspin, and Col de Peyresourde of Stage 14 leading to the finish climb. A day off and then Mt. Ventoux to reveal depth of form. This is a brutal stretch for the best guys and it wouldn't surprise me if Primoz hits a nice average of effort during those to creep up the charts. It'll get complicated if there aren't clear time gaps established before 18 and 19. Let's hope for our sadistic viewing public it isn't over but IMO it'll be done.

 

[Oldman]

Nah, Teddy is unbeatable in 20 minutes climbs when he is in peak shape

When....And IF.

 

[Peyroteo94]

The strategy to win the Tour is very simple.
1. Go hard on Hautacam and Pogacar must attack with 5 km to go and never look back
If Vingegaard drops, better if not, he must continue his effort in order to put 1'30"-2' on Matteo.
2. Gain another 1' on Matteo and put him over 4' in the GC.
3. Just follow Vingegaard and counterattack him when you can.

Easy.

 

[Kedjan]

Nah, Teddy is unbeatable in 20 minutes climbs when he is in peak shape

He probably is. Not that it matter that much, but Vinge was just 7s behind Pog to time point 1 (up to La Turbie) in last stage itt last year. Vinge will do well on the mtt, they will be well ahead of the rest, but I agree Pog should win. I predict 10-15s.

 

[Peyroteo94]

He probably is. Not that it matter that much, but Vinge was just 7s behind Pog to time point 1 (up to La Turbie) in last stage itt last year. Vinge will do well on the mtt, they will be well ahead of the rest, but I agree Pog should win. I predict 10-15s.

Pogi was cruising because he wanted to smash the second part.

 

[Kedjan]

I am expecting a 1 minute gap, with a 7.4w / kg performance from Pogi.

Vini will go very deep, entering in his dark zone to limit his losses in the Hautacam stage.
And then Pogi will smash him in the MTT.

I cannot wait.

Don't know if you are overly optimistic or sarcastic!

Stage 12 isn't that hard and it will be after an easy stage and a rest day. Vinge should recover by the mountain time trial. His ability to recover is excellent, just like Pog’s.

 

[Pantani Attacks]

The Mountain TT is where I expect them to be close.
In fact I see it as a possibility that Jonas beats Tadej there.
It's a fresh effort and Vingegaard will be good.
Unlike 2022 and 2023 Pog 2.0 wants a long and hard race to smother his opponents.

How is Vingegaard going to beat him when he has to wait a couple of minutes before going into Pogacar's slip stream?

 

[yaf2]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1945153568341741751

View: https://x.com/velovelovelo__/status/1945153568341741751?t=lD4BnLp58laavA7K63Olmw&s=19

Good luck jonas vingegaard

 

[Kedjan]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1945153568341741751

View: https://x.com/velovelovelo__/status/1945153568341741751?t=lD4BnLp58laavA7K63Olmw&s=19

Good luck jonas vingegaard

“I feel it’s going to be an interesting week,” Pogačar said. “The Hautacam and the time trial at Peyragudes, these two stages I am looking forward to.”

Just that statement will put the fear into everyone!

Vinge better bring his absolute A-game or else the Pyrenees will be a nightmare for him and Visma.

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

I just want to see good, aggressive cycling. I do hope Pog wins the GC, but I would like to see Wout take a stage. I really feel like he deserves it and he's coming into form nicely.

 

[Oldman]

“I feel it’s going to be an interesting week,” Pogačar said. “The Hautacam and the time trial at Peyragudes, these two stages I am looking forward to.”

Just that statement will put the fear into everyone!

Vinge better bring his absolute A-game or else the Pyrenees will be a nightmare for him and Visma.

It can strike fear and overcommitment on these stages. Fatigue will be a factor on Stage 14 and offer up more opportunities for the pure climbers. This may be when team efforts to date show the true impact.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

“I feel it’s going to be an interesting week,” Pogačar said. “The Hautacam and the time trial at Peyragudes, these two stages I am looking forward to.”

Just that statement will put the fear into everyone!

Vinge better bring his absolute A-game or else the Pyrenees will be a nightmare for him and Visma.

It looks like Pogi wants to drop two watt bombs and then transform into defensive mode. Let's see how it goes: I'm not expecting large differences between top2 but if Pogi increases his advantage on those two stages then Vingo's victory prospects will look poor.

 

[yaf2]

“I feel it’s going to be an interesting week,” Pogačar said. “The Hautacam and the time trial at Peyragudes, these two stages I am looking forward to.”

Just that statement will put the fear into everyone!

Vinge better bring his absolute A-game or else the Pyrenees will be a nightmare for him and Visma.

I think this is whats going to happen on stage 12, visma hard paces col du soulor and jorgenson attacks on the top of col des borderes tryin to isolate pog in the valley may be create a granon again. Imo pog just has to not panic in this situation by not responding to jorgenson and wait for adam & narvaez who could be 30 secs back. They will ride him back to hautacam with not more than a minute behind jorgenson & we know what he did to jorg in isola last year.

 

[Kedjan]

It looks like Pogi wants to drop two watt bombs and then transform into defensive mode. Let's see how it goes: I'm not expecting large differences between top2 but if Pogi increases his advantage on those two stages then Vingo's victory prospects will look poor.

Like Pog points out, this year is different, we don't have an easier 2nd week like we use to, now both week 2 and 3 are hard. That might make week 3 tougher than usual. So it makes sense that Pog might want to try to put away the tour already in week 2. But if he fails he might have spent some extra energy which could make week 3 slightly more challenging. If Vinge doesn't give up time in the Pyrenees we might have a challenge on our hands. But it will be a tall order indeed.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Like Pog points out, this year is different, we don't have an easier 2nd week like we use to, now both week 2 and 3 are hard. That might make week 3 tougher than usual. So it makes sense that Pog might want to try to put away the tour already in week 2. But if he fails he might have spent some extra energy which could make week 3 slightly more challenging. If Vinge doesn't give up time in the Pyrenees we might have a challenge on our hands. But it will be a tall order indeed.

Vingo's minimal plan for the Pyrenees should be to stick to Pogacar's wheel and not lose time in the TT. If he can do it then the race will be open until late stages.