Teams & Riders Chris Froome Discussion Thread.

[LaFlorecita]

He appeared to have a hunger crisis. For sure he will be among the best again on Saturday.

 

[movingtarget]

He still has a good lead but the team will have to chase more now and Contador will be a pest because he will draw out other riders, but he lost almost half of his lead today. I'd say he is a 60% chance of winning but it could come down to seconds at the finish. I still think Nibali's level is similar to that of the Giro but of course he has had a longer break between races than Froome.

 

[telencefalus]

Tomorrow very steep and short finish i would not be surprise if he gain time on nibs

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

He appeared to have a hunger crisis. For sure he will be among the best again on Saturday.

I think it's more fatigue, as hunger flats usually result in a bigger time loss but who knows ?

 

[Matteo.]

Re: Re:

anyway be careful , froome did not cut the finish line as dead. did not seem to have gone into red so deep

One symptom of fading is that you can't take yourself to the limit anymore...

well I would not know. I just know that when a cyclist is a full crisis he it does not come with that face at the finish line. I'm not saying he pretends, be it clear

 

[DFA123]

Re:

I'd still say Froome is favourite, but it's going to be close. If his TT yesterday had been bad, I'd probably give him less than 50% chance, but it's possible it was just a bad day today.
That said, the placement of the Angliru couldn't be worse for Froome.

Either Nibali or Froome is going to lose their second Vuelta on the Angliru on Saturday

Yep, I think he's still favourite as well. Though I think it's not even just the time loss that could hurt him today, as much as the belief that he will have given to Nibali that he can win it. Nibali (and maybe others) will now be super motivated to try everything in the next three days now. Whereas before this show of weakness I reckon he would have just put in a hail Mary attack on Angliru, while keeping an eye on defending his 2nd place. Now, surely they will try to make the race as hard as possible and will be 100% focused on the win.

Going to be a tough few days mentally for Froome, dealing with his own uncertainty about how his body may react on Cobertoria, Cordal and Angliru.

 

[Matteo.]

Re:

Looks like Froome should have followed his own advice, and not gone so hard in the TT yesterday.

:lol:
Contador school

 

[Matteo.]

Re:

Tomorrow very steep and short finish i would not be surprise if he gain time on nibs

seeing the result today, I would say he must try

 

[Pricey_sky]

Re: Re:

I'd give him a less than 50% chance of winning at this point.

I agree, couple of hard stages coming up, and then Angliru, where a minute lead means nothing if the legs are weak...

His saving grace might be that while Nibali looks strong, he doesn't look superhuman, but it will be really close.

I think everyone is tired at this point, at least he limited his losses reasonably well. He was already at least 20s behind Nibali with 5k to go, so only lost 20s over that really steep 3k section, and of course he still has by far the strongest team here.

Main thing for Froome is to not get caught out over the next 2 stages.

His team help him a lot in the last kms. He would have lost more than a minute without moscon and nieve

I agree, which is why i made the point of having the strongest team, they will be there to help him the final days too, just like today.

 

[SeriousSam]

Nibali got hornered up the Angliru. But this time, it might be him hornering Froome

 

[telencefalus]

Nibali got hornered up the Angliru. But this time, it might be him hornering Froome

that results would be ideal will see , as i said predictions in cycling are really difficult

 

[SeriousSam]

Re:

I'd give him a less than 50% chance of winning at this point.

There's insane value for you on the betfair exchange as of now, though not much liquidity. You can bet against Froome, risking €4 if he wins, winning €20 if he loses.

 

[telencefalus]

I see only a scenario in which Froome could lose this , the three remaining stages are ridden at very high av speed, today they ride at 37,3 km/h and for a mountain stage is pretty fast

 

[PremierAndrew]

Nibali got hornered up the Angliru. But this time, it might be him Coboing Froome

fixed

 

[python]

Re: Re:

He appeared to have a hunger crisis. For sure he will be among the best again on Saturday.

I think it's more fatigue, as hunger flats usually result in a bigger time loss but who knows ?

lt is his fatigue AND the fact that his very small superiority margin in watt per kilo he showed in the 1st week was likely reversed in the 3d week...again due to his relatively deeper fatigue due a 2nd all out gt.

My sneaky thought is that nibbs stll has a fair chace for the overall. I'd be even more sure had he been a vino asset today.

The methodical, too much watt-based manner of froome imo now gives his competition a way to defeating him since the deficient watt per kilo he showed today is well known to his rivals

 

[Põhja Konn]

He still the most likely to win, but it is no longer looking like a sure thing. Which way it goes in the end is determined by whether today was an isolated bad day or a sign of accelerating decline in form (in relation to his rivals). If it is the former, he isn't gonna lose the race.

If on the other had, it is the latter, then he might be in trouble, though hard to say whether it costs him the Vuelta as Nibali isn't looking that strong either.

I'm am leaning towards the fading option myself, as today was consistent in my eyes with what was on display during last weeks mountain stages. Sierra Nevada stage is a bit of an outlier, because the last climb so strongly favoured the controlling train tactic and Nibali wasted energy in the hopeless attempt to get away from the train on that final drag.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

I'd give him a less than 50% chance of winning at this point.

There's insane value for you on the betfair exchange as of now, though not much liquidity. You can bet against Froome, risking €4 if he wins, winning €20 if he loses.

Best thing would be to look at the 2012 Vuelta. Froome was full on fading from stage 15 onwards and lost more than a minute on both Cuitu Negru and Bola del Mundo to the best climber (lost 2'30" or something on Cuitu Negru). Thing is that Nibali isn't the dominant climber right now, but the Angliru is definitely harder than any of the 2012 climbs.

Tomorrow should be very telling.

Honestly though, his ITT isn't consistent with fading this badly.

 

[deValtos]

Re: Re:

Honestly though, his ITT isn't consistent with fading this badly.

Yea there's something else at play here. I'm sure he's fading a little but he can't go from the TT to this in the space of 24 hours. Weather + off day had probably just as much of an impact as a fade, but we will find out.

 

[red zone]

Lucky for Froome he has a dominant team or he would have lost even more time . His rivals sense blood and if his form is fading he will be trouble . The rest of the contenders need to continue to attack if they can , not only to try to weaken Froome but to also try to burn out his team before Angliru .

 

[PremierAndrew]

This is the thing, when he's been fading, he's done relatively poor TTs too

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Could be the weather. But it's going to be *** on saturday as well

 

[bigcog]

Froome won't win this, he's blown, no chance on Angliru.

 

[bigcog]

Re:

He appeared to have a hunger crisis. For sure he will be among the best again on Saturday.

If that is the case, that is really poor on his part.

 

[Rollthedice]

I think his TT was poor, said it yesterday that he will fade, today was proof. Wilko, Nibs and Zaka's TTs looked good because Froome was not so dominant. Normally he would've put at least 1'30" in a top shape Nibali.

 

[Brullnux]

Re:

This is the thing, when he's been fading, he's done relatively poor TTs too

That isn't true, or at least there are not many data points available in GTs. In 2012, his TT was ok - not as good as his tour ones but not awful. Then he faded massively every single day. In 2013, he won the second hilly tour time trial, albeit by less than expected before struggling the last few days. 2015 had no TT. Vuelta 2014 was too early. Tour 2016 was a walk in the park throughout so it is hard to say if he faded at all. Vuelta 2016 he was really second best in the climbs, so once again it's hard to say how his form progressed. But yeah, there's no real evidence to what you say. He does them slightly under par, but that's exactly what this was.