Clásica San Sebastián - 2 August 2014

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Obvious Yates win is obvious.

 

[BigMac]

These two uphill sprint specialist are going to retire within a few years.
Continuing to cater for them will only create an even bigger crater when they hit the wine and tapas bars.

Don't think its the right plan at all.

The organisers are thinking short-term, but right now it's what gets them money. They're in survival mode.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Two things they could have done instead that would have been infinitely preferable:

1) simply beef up the earlier part of the race with more climbs so riders are more tired on Jaizkibel

2) use Erlaitz instead of Arkale between the two Jaizkibel ascents. Or hell, even as the last climb - it would crest about 20-25km from the finish if it was the last climb.

Final 90km with Erlaitz inserted between the two ascents of Jaizkibel:

Here's the profile of Erlaitz:

 

[Peccio89]

Nieve to go solo on the steep part and finally a win for team sky.

 

[murali]

Thank you Safebet for starting this thread.
And, thank god, there is no more stupid poll to ruin this.
(btw, can u add year in front of title, instead of after title. it makes easier to read.)


i wud like to see Tongue man. a Tony win will be wonderful.
my heart really screams: jrod to salvage his season with a win.


if Majka is riding this one, then forget abt the race.


I actually would like to see some real climber take this though.

 

[Arnout]

I will wait to see the race before making up my mind on this. But it's not as if the Jaizkibel always made the race winning selection previously. It might still thin it out I guess. Last year's race was enjoyable though so I'm not sure what forced the change... it's not been like the days of the 2006 mass sprint for some time and we've not had a winning group larger than 3 since 2008 (and 3 solo wins in a row).

Is the run in particularly scenic? I wonder if they want to try to take attention away from that terrible industrial run in of previous years... San Sebastian by the bay looks pretty cool.

What the Jaikzibel did was make this a race that is raced like a breakaway stage with a group of 15 riders or so. They all made an effort getting over the climbs, but 10 of them still have the impression they can win by riding smart in the last 15km. And in this race, it weren't 15 random riders, but the 15 best riders in the race uphill. So you get riders that are strong uphill that need to find a way to finish it off on the flat. It was a unique race, now it will be an explosive effort for 1km by the looks of things.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

It is a problem that the favourites will tend to wait for the final climb now, but it shouldn't be quite as predictable as the Fleche. The Ardennes guys will have varying form rather than all be peaking and there will be riders who could not really compete at the Fleche in great form. It won't be as simple as just looking down the start list and saying, hmmm, Purito, Martin, Valverde, pick one.

 

[Fzotrlool]

Michael Rogers or Nicolas Roche from an attack. Suited to both IMO.

The favorites will play the waiting game for too long.

 

[SafeBet]

(btw, can u add year in front of title, instead of after title. it makes easier to read.)

I don't think I can. Maybe a mod

 

[Akuryo]

Stybar showed during Tour de Wallonie that he is in shape. He gets over the hills quite well and is also a decent sprinter himself. Maybe with a late attack?

 

[kareeem]

why the hell is Sagan favourite for this one at paddy power?

 

[happytramp]

why the hell is Sagan favourite for this one at paddy power?

He's always someone's favrouite for every race that isn't a group sprint or MTF.

 

[happytramp]

Guessing Martin will be fresh but won't have the form. Valverde in decent form but won't be as Fresh. J-Rod would probably be somewhere in the middle, so in using the goldilocks theory, I'll pick him.

 

[chiocciolis_calves]

Michael Rogers or Nicolas Roche from an attack. Suited to both IMO.

The favorites will play the waiting game for too long.

Interesting picks. I could see that happening, particularly Rogers.

 

[Sasquatch]

Michael Rogers or Nicolas Roche from an attack. Suited to both IMO.

The favorites will play the waiting game for too long.

Yeah, that could work. Rogers to attack first. Then if it's brought back, Roche attacks on the final climb.

If you look at the last 2 races, this has gone to someone who has had the balls to attack from a far way out. Although, with this final climb, it's going to be hard for that someone to attack from a far way out, and keep it up over the climb. But that's okay, they will just attack on the climb and if they get a break, the favourites will just look at each other.

 

[The Barb]

why the hell is Sagan favourite for this one at paddy power?

I was just about to make exactly the same comment! Usually that would mean good betting opportunities on others but they give me the most pitiful maximum bets. No more that 4.5 Euros on Purito for example. Sucky.

 

[murali]

What do you guys think about the chances for Kreu and Dan Martin?

They are returning after a v long break.

 

[Roude Leiw]

I think Libertine is spot on. i fear with this course we get a FW bis repetita, would be a shame. Loved the race the way it was before.

 

[ILovecycling]

I think Libertine is spot on. i fear with this course we get a FW bis repetita, would be a shame. Loved the race the way it was before.

there is still descent and bit of flat after that hill,no FW like finish.
will they (favourites) wait for last hill?yeah,probably.But imo someone who attacks earlier will win.

 

[manafana]

Valverde the man to beat for me, motivated after an under par tour as such. He also should carry that form pretty well.

 

[jonan92]

I will wait to see the race before making up my mind on this. But it's not as if the Jaizkibel always made the race winning selection previously. It might still thin it out I guess. Last year's race was enjoyable though so I'm not sure what forced the change... it's not been like the days of the 2006 mass sprint for some time and we've not had a winning group larger than 3 since 2008 (and 3 solo wins in a row).

Is the run in particularly scenic? I wonder if they want to try to take attention away from that terrible industrial run in of previous years... San Sebastian by the bay looks pretty cool.

It's very scenic, it runs along Monte Igeldo, next to the La Concha and the Igeldo hills, the road goes along the coast

Video of the final climb

 

[VeloHuman]

I think Libertine is spot on. i fear with this course we get a FW bis repetita, would be a shame. Loved the race the way it was before.

Plenty of climbing before the finish and a bit of descending + flat after. Hopefully it will be a bit more interesting.

 

[kompik3]

why the hell is Sagan favourite for this one at paddy power?

I think that the odds depend not only on what bookmaker considers the most probable outcome, but also on what people are betting on.
If I am a bookmaker, I have to somehow balance two things:
* I must keep the odds high, otherwise people will find some other bookmaker, who offers better odds.
* I must keep the odds low, otherwise I will have no profit.
So if lost of people are willing to bet on Sagan @5.00 and I (as a bookmaker) am satisfied with the amount of money already wagered on this outcome, I don't have to increase odds just to @10.00; even if that would be closer to the probability he has.

Ideal situation for a bookmaker is when, after all bets are closed, the bookmaker has a profit no matter what the outcome is. This might be incentive for a bookmaker to change odds, if people are not betting on some outcomes as much.

TL;DR: Sagan has many fans, that might bias odds. (In general, odds on someone who has many fans tends to slightly lower, I think.)

(Sorry for the off-topic comment; but it was related to the question about odds on Sagan, which I quoted above.)

 

[icefire]

Valverde the man to beat for me, motivated after an under par tour as such. He also should carry that form pretty well.

Valverde is the man to beat in almost any race with some hills close to the finish. And most of the time he gets beaten

 

[Orbit501]

Stybar showed during Tour de Wallonie that he is in shape. He gets over the hills quite well and is also a decent sprinter himself. Maybe with a late attack?

Good call.

He certainly did look to be in superb shape there from what I saw. I'd love to see him have a dig tomorrow and make it stick.