Columbia's depth & this year's TDF

[Parrot23]

What does Columbia's incredible depth in the Giro mean for the tour this year?

Previously it was all about Astana/Contador and Saxo/Schleck and maybe Cervelo/Sastre, but now Columbia has to figure importantly, if Rogers, Kirchen, etc., stay healthy. Can count on lots of support in individual stages, I would think.

Problem is that with Cavendish and other objectives, they risk diluting their chances overall.

 

[ingsve]

Their original plan was to have Lövkvist save energy in the giro so that he could be "really good" during the tour. I'm guessing their plans are up in the air at the moment.

For overall contention they have a handfull possible people. Rogers, Lövkvist and Siutsou who all ride the giro and then also Kirchen and Monfort.

I think it will depend both on what happens further in the Giro and also what kind of shape Kirchen is in when the Tour comes around.

If none of the Giro guys are in perfect shape and neither of the others are in a position to do very well in the Tour they will probably bring a team that can go for stage wins primarily.

If they do have someone that is in great shape then they will probably build the team more towards helping that person.

 

[Kimster]

Basically all the GC riders are at the Giro. So let's see how Rogers, Lovkvist & Sivtsov can cope with three weeks of racing. The stages aren't that hard, speeds are lower than those at the Tour, but still, their ability of recovery will show.

As for Kirchen, I can't see him performing better in GC than in previous years. He is best without pressure, and I think would be more than happy to ride for stage victories.

 

[Big_Blue_Dave]

Not to mention that they also have George Hincapie to come in for them too. Columbia could be a strong team with one or two riders in the top 10, but I think they will take 8 stages or more this year at the TdF.

 

[Anonymous]

but I think they will take 8 stages or more this year at the TdF.

wow.. brave prediction..

 

[lookkg386]

Not to mention that they also have George Hincapie to come in for them too. Columbia could be a strong team with one or two riders in the top 10, but I think they will take 8 stages or more this year at the TdF.

8!!, OK, you must either think Cav is unbeatable in a sprint or something!!, but must admit the team looks pretty solid in all areas, surely stage wins is their aim, and maybe a podium for Rogers.

 

[Delicato]

8!!, OK, you must either think Cav is unbeatable in a sprint or something!!, but must admit the team looks pretty solid in all areas, surely stage wins is their aim, and maybe a podium for Rogers.

Wow! Times change, people change Just some time ago Rogers was seen "only
as a three times times ITT world champion- also knowing that he hasn't shown anything like that on GT's time trials, and now he is seen as a serious candidate for reaching podium position in both Giro and Tour. Amazing

 

[lookkg386]

Wow! Times change, people change Just some time ago Rogers was seen "only
as a three times times ITT world champion- also knowing that he hasn't shown anything like that on GT's time trials, and now he is seen as a serious candidate for reaching podium position in both Giro and Tour. Amazing

Lol, I am Aussie!!!, before Evans Rogers was always our GT podium hope.

 

[kjetilraknerud]

No Columbia rider is going to win the Tour, but a top five could be within reach if they play their cards right. Because of his injury, Kirchen didn't hit top form for the Ardennes this year - which IMO can result in him being better prepared for the TdF. He also showed last season that he will be a force in the time trials, and Columbia must be one of the favourites for the TTT as well. He will also be constantly in the top 10 in semi-hard stages. The question mark is of course the high mountains, where he lost around two minutes on every stage in 2008 - and six minutes on Alpe d'Huez. In some of those stages, Siutsou had to almost carry him on his back to the finish line.

I don't think Løvkvist and Rogers will be strong enough after the Giro to fight for the overall in the TdF, but they could help Kirchen.

So, what team will Columbia send to France? My guess:

Cavendish
Eisel
Greipel
Hincapie
Kirchen
Siutsou
Monfort
Rogers
Løvkvist

But we could very well see strong riders like Hansen or Burghardt in there, to work for Cavendish on the flat stages.

 

[ingsve]

Cavendish
Eisel
Greipel
Hincapie
Kirchen
Siutsou
Monfort
Rogers
Løvkvist

That's almost the exact team I posted a month ago in the thread "One of the best tours ever coming up?" only that I had Burghardt instead of Greipel.

I agree that I don't think anyone in Columbia can win the tour and I doubt anyone of them can win the giro this year either.

 

[kjetilraknerud]

I think Greipel will be Cav's final lead-out man, as he was in last years Giro, but I agree that Burghardt will probably be there. Maybe Rogers or Siutsou won't do both the Giro and the Tour.

 

[St. Elia]

wow.. brave prediction..

I think 8 is a reasonable number, 10 flat stages and a bunch guys that could win a hilly stage seems like a reasonable guess. they just look so strong at the Giro, maybe they are burning their matches we have to see.

 

[mr. tibbs]

I'll grant them four-ish stage wins. 8 is excessive--remember, there will be other teams there.

And as far as GC, they have a lot of strong guys, but no one strong enough to take it all. Come July, the front of the peloton's going to look a little bit different, I think.

 

[ingsve]

Also we might expect that at least a few of the flat stages wil lget won by breakaways so the actual number of buch sprints will be less than the number of flat stages.

 

[Parrot23]

Yeah, I see the points about younger guys all at the Giro. Not ready to take the cake at TDF overall: 3wks are very different from 1 in the Giro so far; and 2GTs from 1. Recovery's the name of the game, and young guys aren't quite there yet.

As Stapleton says, they have a LOT of simultaneously growing plants who are only going to get stronger. This is what's fascinating. It can really change the calculus in some GTs in years that follow. Maybe next year they can mount a sustained attack on Contador, and strike a blow at these ironlike processions to victory in the Tour.

I may be wrong, but to me TDF now seems a second-class race compared with the Giro. Latter seems more competitive/open. I hope Columbia can help this way with TDF.

 

[Zoncolan]

I agree, they might get a couple guys in the top 20, maybe even 3-4 (depending on who starts), but no podium.
Number of stage wins? All you guys make some pretty good points. How many of the flat stages will have bunch sprints? In how many of the breaks will Columbia have a guy that can take it?
I think anywhere from 3 to even 7-8 stages is possible. If Cav is on super form, it might even be more than that. They sure look awesome at the moment. Even stronger than last year.

 

[180mmCrank]

Long way to go before we start counting TdF stages...a few more days in the Giro and lots of time to July.

Columbia will be strong but the TdF is not the Giro - there are a few other folk to show there racing legs yet.

 

[karlboss]

I love this team

There is scarce a race/stage this team can't win. Though getting over AC at the tour might be a bit much for this year at least. Spoilt for choice as to how they line up at the tour.
Sprinter: Cav
Lead out men, break away sprinters: renshaw, boassen hagen, griepel, eisel,
GC climbers: rogers, sivtsov, lonkvist, kirchen
General support: pinotti, hincapie, grabsch, hansen, burghardt,

I'd love to have that list. As an australian I just wish they picked up cadel when it was apparetn he'd no support at the tour.

 

[karlboss]

is a bit early to talk about Tdf

 

[lookkg386]

is a bit early to talk about Tdf

Never too early!!!