Re: Re:
Again, I agree with you that it's really hard to really dis-aggregate the factors behind the performances, but I'm guessing while Contador isn't completely giving it the stick he ain't just cruising, either. He and the Astana boys just seem to be recovering better than everyone. So yeah, definitely there's some confirmation bias, but ever since Contador himself said it I've been struggling not to agree with him: recovery just might be THE difference in grand tour racing.
Sure, it's really complex. But to name names the very same Alberto Contador seemed to push it pretty hard the first week, closing gaps in the TTT, pulling at the front to get time on Uran, dropping everyone but Porte on an early stage, and really digging deep to pull a large group in in the stage before the time trial. All the while struggling with an apparently dislocated shoulder and often isolated at the end of stages and repeatedly taking little digs. I didn't really seems like he was really "saving himself", at least all that much, before the time trial. Some of the top GC guys, however, managed to not loose that much time in what were really mostly medium mountain stages -even though I'm sure if any of them had enough strength in them they'd have tried to stay on for longer when everyone but Astana and Contador where dropped, particularly on that stage where the break was caught by the lead group and a big chase group lost 50 seconds. Yet he and Aru (if his TT level is anywhere close to what it was last year and if aesthetics have anything to do with TT form) seemed to have recovered better than any other of the GC guys for the time trial stage. Then on the next day were again head an neck above everyone, absolutely smashing the field and leaving everyone else sprinkled in little clumps of dust while everyone else seemed to be paying for their TT efforts. This wasn't the first MTF in the Giro, nor really that epic a stage, not even the hardest stage in terms of vertical feet so far, neither was the first stage that saw Aru and Contador attack and pull of the front, but after that much effort it was really the TT and the Madonna di Campiglio that utterly destroyed guys like Caruso, Uran and Porte. A stage in which Contador, for all his strength, took repeated little digs and couldn't get any but the same inches of separation from Aru he's been getting all giro. Contador is known to ride defensively at times, but he's not the kind of guy who won't stick the dagger in if he thinks he can pull it off.King Boonen said:Dear Wiggo said:The other argument is:
Rider 1 FTP: 6.4W/kg
Rider 2 FTP: 6 W/kg
Rider 1 can appear to have better recovery than Rider 2, purely because when the going gets tough, he's operating at 6% below his FTP as he follows Rider 2 up the climb, but Rider 2 is at 100% of FTP.
You never see Rider 1 being pushed, so never get to gauge his true, unleashed capacity. Over time, he appears to be recovering better, when in actual fact he's just not being pushed to the same subjective level as Rider 2.
Good point. It's an extremely complex situation and something that's very hard to work out, especially when we are talking about pro riders where the differences may be very small.
Again, I agree with you that it's really hard to really dis-aggregate the factors behind the performances, but I'm guessing while Contador isn't completely giving it the stick he ain't just cruising, either. He and the Astana boys just seem to be recovering better than everyone. So yeah, definitely there's some confirmation bias, but ever since Contador himself said it I've been struggling not to agree with him: recovery just might be THE difference in grand tour racing.