Hugh Januss said:
I might be wrong (I'm too lazy to look it up, and my memory is too shot to recall exactly) but I don't think Contador has ever won a GT by 4 minutes. Why should he? He climbs well enough that he knows no one can drop him and he TTs well enough that he knows nobody will take much time from him there. So why not save energy for some sort of mishap (like on the cobbles last TDF, or the puncture on the climb a couple years earlier), or someone's early break success. Make the others try to get time on you and then counter attack, that should be his plan. Fortunately he has just enough panache that he does sometimes attack when it is not quite absolutely necessary. So we are spared some of the boredom of the HWSNBN era.
Therefore it is a dumb poll because the correct answer is not amongst the choices. 1 to 2 minutes, no more.
He would have to do some serious sandbagging to only win by that much.
He's already got 1'21" and 1'28" on Nibali and Scarponi.
He takes at least 30 seconds out of both of them in both the time trials, probably more.
He will be the strongest on Zoncolan, and could easily take 1-2 minutes, probably a similar situation in Gardeccia. Even if he does sit on, he will still attack to take the stage win and combined bonus and gap of 15-30".
Grossglockner and Sestriere are his best chances of hiding in a group and letting someone else take the win.
I guess that doesn't include Rujano taking 10 minutes on 15!