Could Gilbert or Sagan get green this year?

[2wheels]

Can't help but notice that the first dozen stages or so really play to the strengths of a puncheur. Add to that a few likely crashes on Stage 3 and 7 that could derail the sprint trains, and there might be a good chance this year for an all-rounder rather than a true sprinter to take the green jersey. I'd actually love it if there were still five or six contenders for green on the final stage!

 

[Thomsena]

Is Sagan even in Tour this year?...

 

[will10]

No he's not, and Gilbert won't win green.

 

[Spine Concept]

Sagan is definitely not racing in the Tour this year. As far as your inquiry goes, I can certainly see Gilbert getting the green jersey.

 

[benpounder]

With the new rule change, someone like Voeckler could win green.

 

[2wheels]

Whoops,
Sorry about the Sagan bit, but stick in another name. Point being, there just aren't enough 'pure' sprints for a Cavendish or Farrar-type to really pull away from the field. Maybe Hushovd or Goss can get over a few hills and steal some points, like Zabel used to.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

There are plenty enough sprints. The first two weeks consists of little else. Stages could be raced more aggressively and make for more interesting racing, but everybody will be too cautious to do so except the occasional guy in a wildcard team who isn't strong enough to hold off the might of HTC, Garmin and Sky all controlling the pace.

 

[Buffalo Soldier]

Yes, guys like Gilbert or Voeckler could win green. But the chance is very small...

 

[2wheels]

Stage 1: Too steep at the end for a real sprinter
Stage 2: TTT
Stage 3: Looks like a sure-fire crash-fest, with two nasty turns just before the 3-km zone.
Stage 4: Climbs 150 m in last 4 km
Stage 5: A good chance of echelons forming and field splits, but also the finish favors someone like Cancellara sneaking off.
Stage 6: 90 m climb in last 3 km
Stage 7: Another one with nasty turns just before the finish line
Stage 8: 1.5 km climb at 7.6% to the line
Stage 9: Seven categorized climbs; hard to see many sprinters staying around

Not the kind of first week that sprinters are used to seeing in the Tour; that's why I think a lot of different riders will be getting green jersey points this year.

 

[ferryman]

Stage 1: Too steep at the end for a real sprinter
Stage 2: TTT
Stage 3: Looks like a sure-fire crash-fest, with two nasty turns just before the 3-km zone.
Stage 4: Climbs 150 m in last 4 km
Stage 5: A good chance of echelons forming and field splits, but also the finish favors someone like Cancellara sneaking off.
Stage 6: 90 m climb in last 3 km
Stage 7: Another one with nasty turns just before the finish line
Stage 8: 1.5 km climb at 7.6% to the line
Stage 9: Seven categorized climbs; hard to see many sprinters staying around

Not the kind of first week that sprinters are used to seeing in the Tour; that's why I think a lot of different riders will be getting green jersey points this year.

Gilbert could have a nice lead at the end of that lot.

 

[Havetts]

Stage 1, 4, 8 will go to Gilbert. Maybe 6 to Lisieux too, who knows... It is a real possibility that Gilbert could get green in the end.

 

[Bike Boy]

To my knowledge Gilbert never talked about green, only yellow. maybe he will start the first week in yellow and end it in green. If so he should be encouraged to battle for the jersey all the way to Paris. Nevertheless we all know who is the biggest favourite, but naming Gilbert among the candidates is very legitimate.

 

[Mambo95]

Stage 1, 4, 8 will go to Gilbert. Maybe 6 to Lisieux too, who knows... It is a real possibility that Gilbert could get green in the end.

And there's at least six stages that Cavendish can win. And Phil's not going to beat Cav at the intermediates either (at least not regularly). The Green Jersey will be won by a first choice sprinter.

As Bike Boy says, Gilbert has made no indication that the Green Jersey is on his agenda. No-one who is not thinking about it will win it.

 

[roundabout]

The rules have been changed to favor the sprinters even more. Cavendish should win green easily now.

 

[ingsve]

There is less points on the stages with finishes that suit Gilbert and that won't compensate for the flat stages that have also gotten more points at the end.

 

[benpounder]

The rules have been changed to favor the sprinters even more. Cavendish should win green easily now.

Only if HTC is willing to control the peloton for the first 100km on every flat stage. Granted, HTC may have help from other teams with overall Sprint Jersey ambitions; but if not, I suspect HTC will tire of wasting their team that early in every stage.

 

[luckyboy]

Only if HTC is willing to control the peloton for the first 100km on every flat stage. Granted, HTC may have help from other teams with overall Sprint Jersey ambitions; but if not, I suspect HTC will tire of wasting their team that early in every stage.

At the end of flat stages the points system is different. So the person who finishes first is rewarded more in relation to the rest...

Also means sprinters will be fighting over the lower intermediate sprint places after a breakaway has gone through.
So Cav wins stages and gets more points over Farrar, Petacchi etc.. than he did the previous years. However, if someone did a Hushovd and got in a break on a tougher stage, they could also sweep up 20 points.

 

[2wheels]

Thanks for posting that chart showing the sprint points. Those intermediate sprint bonanzas could lead to some serious carnage out there this year-- not just at the sprint itself, but also in the very nervous 80-100 km of racing leading up to it, with sprint teams trying to prevent any break from going up the road. If that's the case, it could make the job much easier for the yellow jersey's teammates this year, in terms of needing to spend much less time on the front chasing down breaks than in the old days. These new rules may be real game changers in some unforeseen ways.

 

[benpounder]

Also means sprinters will be fighting over the lower intermediate sprint places after a breakaway has gone through.
So Cav wins stages and gets more points over Farrar, Petacchi etc.. than he did the previous years. However, if someone did a Hushovd and got in a break on a tougher stage, they could also sweep up 20 points.

Thanks luckyboy, I was searching earlier for the new point allocation and couldn't find them (specifics you know, thou it is quite close to what I thought it would be).

What this also means, is someone like J Pineau can get into several breaks and sweep up more points than Cav earns on one stage. Furthermore, someone such as Voeckler, who has the ability to stay away and finish only needs to take a top three in the intermediate sprint on a number of days, and hang in there for the more difficult sprint finishes.

I dont know how the rule changes will play out, but I suspect several teams have 'gamed' the scenerios, and that we are likely to see a scrapping of traditional (and utterly boring) flat stage strategies we've had to suffer through for so many years. (I hope.)

 

[khodder]

Does anybody know which stages are classified as which? The TT and Mountains are easy to spot, but I would assume that Stage 1 is probably going to be a "flat" stage, whereas Stage 4 could very well be considered a "medium mountain stage"

If Phillipe wants the green jersey he should be able to get it.

If we say Glibert goes out and wins stages 1 and 4 and places highly on stage 6.

We assume Cav wins 3, 5 and 7. That could be a stretch with the possibilites on stage 5.

The Gilbert could go for the intermediates on stage 9 (After about 6 categoried climbs)

Cav should take the intermediate on stage 10, but Gilbert could be in for a top 5 finish.

Stage 11 could be the last for Cav prior to Paris. Though he should win 15. In between there is the intermediate sprints on the mountain stages. On 12 and 13 they are befroe the mountains, 14 a break will probably get it (Gilbert could go and not get chased too much) 16 will likely be a break, but the psrinters are unlikely to be involved. Stages 17 and 19 are not going to be winnable intermediates for Cav.

So if Gilbert places top 10 in a flate stage or two, wins the punchy stages and gets into a couple of breakaways in the mountains to take intermediate points he could easily win the Green.

 

[benpounder]

Does anybody know which stages are classified as which?

Best place is the official website: http://www.letour.fr/indexus.html

A bit tedious to get through, however the stage by stage analysis is an interesting counter-point to those found here and elsewhere. Also, they have all the official maps, profiles, finishing km's, climb stats, and schedules.

[my edit] And if ASO maintains the TdF site as they did the Dauphine site, you can expect to see daily results updated as they happen.

 

[The Barb]

So long as there are no real green jersey contenders in an early break, I don't think the increased intermediate sprint points will prevent early breaks forming. Unless there are 10 or more in the break there will still be good points available for the intermediate sprints.

 

[Ferminal]

I have Cav and Petacchi very close.

Gilbert will be up there, and should lead during/after the first week, but as has been said, we aren't even sure if he will commit to it as a goal. In order to win it he would have to fight on the flat sprints for the scraps, but I'm not sure he can even finish top15 with all the sprinters that will be here. Also I doubt his team is going to waste time on sneaky tactics which might help Gilbert get green, when their real goals are stages and GC.

Stages 8 and 9 only being 30 points is a big blow for Gilbert. If they were 45 I have him up with the other two.

Hushovd I have doing rather well, but I think I am overrating him, based on his Suisse efforts.

Not sure it's worth considering anyone else. No one is as fast as Cav, punchy as Gilbert, or resilient as Hushovd. Petacchi is fast and resilient if he is at his Giro level, but always a question mark over his commitment to seeing out the race.

If Cav wins I wouldn't be surprised for him not to wear green until the podium in Paris (all that matters!).

 

[benpounder]

So long as there are no real green jersey contenders in an early break, I don't think the increased intermediate sprint points will prevent early breaks forming.

Disagree. I think with the new points system, you will see many more non-traditional 'sprinters' seeking to get into a break. And far more teams willing to pull back breaks that threaten one of their riders. What happens if Sylvain Chavanal gets into as many breaks, and finished as well as he did last year (he is certainly on form)?

 

[2wheels]

. . .Not sure it's worth considering anyone else. No one is as fast as Cav, punchy as Gilbert, or resilient as Hushovd. Petacchi is fast and resilient if he is at his Giro level, but always a question mark over his commitment to seeing out the race.

No question about Cav's speed, but the kinds of stages he wins usually have a real chance of him (or any sprinter) getting boxed in-- maybe even moreso if it's a real slugfest for green. Whereas a stage that favors Gilbert is pretty much an uphill charge or a sneak off the front, and no real danger of getting tangled up. So that might be a factor too. . .