Could Gilbert or Sagan get green this year?

[The Barb]

but the kinds of stages he wins usually have a real chance of him (or any sprinter) getting boxed in-- maybe even moreso if it's a real slugfest for green.

I agree with that in theory, but in reality Cav (partly because HTC is so damn good and partly because his speed is so explosive) almost never gets beaten by being boxed in.

 

[Tuarts]

Hahaha, must say, the reputation of July warded me off last year (until October!) but being here I've found it all rather amusing.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

if goss rode for any other team he'd have this imo.

 

[roundabout]

Only if HTC is willing to control the peloton for the first 100km on every flat stage. Granted, HTC may have help from other teams with overall Sprint Jersey ambitions; but if not, I suspect HTC will tire of wasting their team that early in every stage.

Given that there are 7 stages that should be within the capabilities of Cavendish that's easily 300 points right there barring any mishaps which puts breakaway artists out of reach unless they score ok points in most sprints.

The biggest danger for Cavendish are stages where Petacchi, Rojas or Hushovd (to a lesser extent as I doubt that Garmin will ride for him on all stages) are more likely to contest the finish. He can lose 50 or more points on stages 1 and 6 in a worst case scenario which he will have to make up later on.

 

[Bavarianrider]

With the old reglement Gilbert could have won it this year.
But with the new rules, it's more or less impossible for a non pure sprinter.

 

[Midnightfright]

if goss rode for any other team he'd have this imo.

I would have he as joint favourite with Cav ,he would be able to place high in all the relevant stages but i wouldnt nessecarily expect him to win any.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

I would have he as joint favourite with Cav ,he would be able to place high in all the relevant stages but i wouldnt nessecarily expect him to win any.

He is pretty quick tho.
And much more versatile then cav.

 

[Midnightfright]

He is pretty quick tho.
And much more versatile then cav.

Yeah I agree and I think he would take a heap of points in the flat stages but would still expect Cav to win most of them. thats why I think it will be close it would largely depend on wether or not Cav is willing to fight for points or just go for wins

 

[cineteq]

I like Greipel for green, even though it's his 1st Tour, he can score points on either flat or hilly finishes....