I don't think teams aside from Alpecin and maybe Trek and Visma will be racing in a way that depth of the team is important. Ideally you have 2-3 very strong riders that can take turns attacking and hope that Alpecin/MVDP can't or won't chase them all down. But you're right that even on that score, Kung and Madouas are probably better than Mohoric and Wright, and Groupama has better tertiary options.
- Oct 5, 2009
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Just what I was about to mention.
If there's one thing Mads is good at, it's 7+ hour solo training in cold rain with white knuckles.
He only needs to eat salted herring and refrain from occasional drinking from his water bottles, as some of the big patrons practiced in the 60s and 70s to harden themselves
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- Oct 5, 2009
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However, seems as not much more than dense weather (0,5-1mm/hr). But at least some nice slippery spice on the decisive cobbles
Let's say I'm wrong. I'll be wrong, and it won't be the last time. Let's say I'm right. I'll be right, and we will all enjoy a better race. I'll still be wrong again,, probably about something else tomorrow. Don't waste your life worrying about being wrong, because you're gonna be wrong sooner or later.
I know many keep saying wout has no chance against mvdp, and that he isn't close in Flanders, but let us recall that mvdp won the sprint against wout by stuff all, and that if wout knew then what we all know now, to go long and not from a slow speed, wout would have a Flanders win.
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- Feb 18, 2015
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Well I did say he will get the Sagan treatment (and then some), not that their superiority is the same. I don't even think he was the out and out strongest the year he won (Cancellara was probably at least as strong that year) but the thing about Sagan is that he was often treated as if he was far and away the strongest rider. And when I say often I honestly mostly mean 2017 when people overestimated him every single race and riders decided to give Van Avermaet a free ride to the finish instead. That year simply stuck in lots of peoples memories.
The thing is, I don't think there is much evidence for the outstanding favorite to dominate this race. The winner is often one of the pre-race favorites, but the role of the number one favorite is hardly ever as clear cut as this time. Like yeah, Pogacar could just demolish everyone on the Kwaremont last year, but he only got into that position because Van Aert and Van der Poel both believed they had a shot against him. The three years before that Van der Poel never finished solo because Van Aert/Asgreen/Pogacar had his number on the climbs. Often when the peloton is hyperfocused on one rider, like on Sagan in 2017 or Cancellara in 2016 its the anticipatory moves that win the race. In 2014 Cancellara was just able to neutralize the preemptive attack but had to win in a tough sprint. In 2011 he tried to anticipate himself and ended up getting caught. Frankly, there are very few occasions when everyone agrees on the outstanding pre race favorite and then that pre race favorite proceeds to smash the competition and win. I think 2013 is probably the only time on the new route when that description fits.
Now is Van der Poel more superior compared to his competition than any former pre race favorite I just mentioned? Probably yes, and I think he is the most likely winner...obviously. But I definitely don't expect this to go like this years Strade Bianche. I really don't think this will be an easy win for Van der Poel.
That feels logical yet the 2nd tier guys did that really well last year anticipating at 110km out and attacking relentlessly from then on but it simply didn’t make any difference as Pogacar was on an all time epic ride and just mowed them all down. It’s still hard to believe how he reeled in Pedersen and co with nearly 3 minutes lead and passes and dropped Mads on final Kwaremont as if it was pro vs amateur.
Tomorrow is his big chance really as most top riders out
I know there is MVDP but then again but he is only one man to control
Could he get there by morning
- Apr 30, 2011
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Pogi didn't do that alone. Both Van Aert (until Kruisberg) and Van der Poel (until Kwaremont) cooperated. And they had helpers in front who dropped back and pulled.
Van der Poel all on his own can't do the same.
- Oct 30, 2023
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All are in restful sleep in anticipation of to race for the crown
Here's to hoping Alaphilippe has a good day...because f**k Patrick Lefevere.
- Jul 10, 2012
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And yet as wouts career gets longer and he accumulates gems of experience like this one, he somehow seems to win less and less
I'm not sure what to expect tomorrow. First of all I am curious about how Alpecin will go at it. Will they try to neutralizer all attacks? Or will they send for instance Soren Kragh and maybe Axel Laurance with attacks ad their card to play? And who will get the Van Aert treatment from Van der Poel? Will it be Pedersen and Jorgenson that he will mark if they attack?
Then there is the unknown of how Visma and Trek will go at it. If they take no responsibility, they might also see that their best riders don't come in a position to win and they have to rely on their second tier riders. Are they okay with that? I have a hard time seeing Benoot or Skujins finish it off for them..
And could there be a surprise candidate tomorrow? It's just hard to understand why riders like Alaphilippe and Asgreen cannot be in the mix. Maybe they are peaking for tomorrow.
Then there is the unknown of how Visma and Trek will go at it. If they take no responsibility, they might also see that their best riders don't come in a position to win and they have to rely on their second tier riders. Are they okay with that? I have a hard time seeing Benoot or Skujins finish it off for them..
And could there be a surprise candidate tomorrow? It's just hard to understand why riders like Alaphilippe and Asgreen cannot be in the mix. Maybe they are peaking for tomorrow.
He put that to use to win at E3 last year, and never got the chance to to a straight up sprint at Roubaix.
- Aug 6, 2014
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Jan Bakelants looks like he's been up for 48 hours straight lmao. Daylight savings hit him hard.
- May 3, 2010
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Van der Poel can become the seventh rider to win the Ronde three times. He's the big favorite, but that also means the others will ride against him. He doesn't really have the team to control the race. His teammates will probably work to bring him to the second Kwaremont in a good position. In the final 55 km he should be strong enough to go alone. A big solo is a real possibility. When he goes full on one of those steep climbs, it's doubtful whether anyone can follow him.
Visma still has a strong duo with Jorgenson and Benoot, but they're not explosive on the climbs. Van Baarle has been ill, so he will probably just serve as a domestique, or as a distractor if they let him attack early.
Lidl-Trek has been decimated too. It's impossible to tell how Pedersen will perform four days after his crash. Skujins could be sent up the road, but I don't see him winning.
Groupama-FdJ is beginning to look like one of the strongest teams, with Küng, Madouas and Pithie. However they'd probably settle for a podium spot.
UAE has Wellens and Politt. Their shape is fine, but they haven't got a good record in the Tour of Flanders - only one top 10 place between the two of them.
Soudal-Q still looks weak, although Asgreen is showing signs of improvement. Or will we witness Alaphilippe's miraculous resurrection on Easter Day?
Other interesting outsiders are Bettiol, Lazkano and Turner. A strong group of second-tiers going solo might put MvdP under pressure to burn his matches too early, but the most likely outcome is that the Dutchman rolls them all up. In spite of everything this is still a race to look forward to.
Visma still has a strong duo with Jorgenson and Benoot, but they're not explosive on the climbs. Van Baarle has been ill, so he will probably just serve as a domestique, or as a distractor if they let him attack early.
Lidl-Trek has been decimated too. It's impossible to tell how Pedersen will perform four days after his crash. Skujins could be sent up the road, but I don't see him winning.
Groupama-FdJ is beginning to look like one of the strongest teams, with Küng, Madouas and Pithie. However they'd probably settle for a podium spot.
UAE has Wellens and Politt. Their shape is fine, but they haven't got a good record in the Tour of Flanders - only one top 10 place between the two of them.
Soudal-Q still looks weak, although Asgreen is showing signs of improvement. Or will we witness Alaphilippe's miraculous resurrection on Easter Day?
Other interesting outsiders are Bettiol, Lazkano and Turner. A strong group of second-tiers going solo might put MvdP under pressure to burn his matches too early, but the most likely outcome is that the Dutchman rolls them all up. In spite of everything this is still a race to look forward to.
- Mar 18, 2015
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- Mar 18, 2015
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10 man group gets away early, around 100k out, and pulls. MvdP jumps put has pulled to much already so I put out of the equation.
Someone new is winning today. Standing on Kwaremont now and rain is coming in. Its a bit cold, wind is picking up and yesterday's ride was the most horrible sportif in many years. It will be a difficult race.
Mvdp is not winning. Some outsider is.
If Mathieu does win this today, doing so while being more marked than the rest of the group combined, and while wearing the Rainbow jersey, will look mightily impressive indeed.
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