Did we just witness the death of the attacks far from the finish?

[Linkinito]

Today's stage was basically the perfect example of how far away attacks are basically doomed to fail.

Kwiatkowski, even helped with an incredibly Tony Martin during 90% of the stage, completely cracked at the very end in Chevrères and the final climb, losing over 2 minutes to Nibali, even though he virtually had the yellow jersey the whole stage.

Even Purito, who was in front all day and had nothing to lose being nearly an hour in the GC, and was 1st in five climbs out of seven, has lost all its lead in the final two climbs despite being very strong during 4 hours. 15 minutes were enough to make him lose the stage by nearly a minute.

Meanwhile, the favorite's peloton just stood there, Nibali's team did all the job, and Vincenzo takes the final honors, while some other riders (especially the other GC contenders) who didn't go in the breakaway still finished strong only seconds behind Nibali.

So did we just witness the death of the long runs and attacks from far away to gain several minutes in a queen stage?

 

[l.Harm]

That's already the trend over the past years. There are only some exceptions to this rule (Schleck for instance), but we won't see it a lot anymore. Also 'cause nowadays riders are happy with an 8th spot in GC.

 

[Netserk]

Contador on Martin's wheel and it would have been successful. The truth is that Kwia simply wasn't strong enough.

 

[Fight.The.Power]

Contador on Martin's wheel and it would have been successful. The truth is that Kwia simply wasn't strong enough.

Exactly. The question is too broad.

Not voted - sorry

 

[hrotha]

Kwiatkowski was a contender for a low-end top 10 spot in the GC. It's not like he was taking a huge risk.

Can attacks from far away work? Sure, ask Contador, Andy or De Gendt.

 

[Netserk]

I also think it's easier in the last week than the first.

 

[BYOP88]

No it's not the end of the long range attack. But more riders these days are happy to play safe and take 8th place on GC than risk it all and maybe winning.

Lets look at AG2R they have 2 guys in the top 8 but they won't risk 1 of those guys, they'll both just follow and hope they can still be there at the end of the race.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

MTFs are easy to control with a strong team and a bit of watt calculations.
Astana with 3 riders in the finale today is the main problem. I mean its not like the team have been wheelsucking the last 5 or 6 stages.

Kazak Postal.

 

[the_cutter]

No conclusion can be drawn after a single stage. Especially when Kwiatek is weak and JRod not in top shape. Moreover as long the human element remains mistakes will be made - DC may underestimate the strength of the escapee / overestimate the strength of the team / etc. The success ratio was and will never be high, but every once a while it will succeed. Same as it ever was.

 

[jens_attacks]

no but of course it is harder now than 30 years ago. but of course the long attacks are still possible and doable. see horner in the pyrenees of tour 2014

 

[DirtyWorks]

So did we just witness the death of the long runs and attacks from far away to gain several minutes in a queen stage?

IMO, two-way radios for the riders allows the calculation of pace needed to shut down long-range attacks.

Also, long range attacks generally don't work anyway. Kwiatxxxx took a huge risk and lost. In this case, plenty of teams motivated to deny him moving into the top-10. Couple that with the terrain today and it just didn't work.

Good of him to try.

 

[Ryongsyong]

It can still happen but team radios can make it harder to achieve these days. I love watching other races where riders catch breaks and then have to ask them if that's it or if there are others up the road still or not. It's great.

 

[murali]

I dont understand all this stupid comments abt radio and stuff.

Today, only tony martin worked in the break. the rest were happy wheelsucking. if the other guys had come forward and help set some pace in the front, extend Tony Martin's effort by a few extra kms, then things wud have been different. Kwiato is just a kid. with only tony working, he had no chance at all.

The thing is: most breaks are failing due to lack of working together. I have seen weaker riders working together to keep themselves ahead of the peloton as much as they can.

Blaming radio is nonsense. In races where there was no radio, the breaks were not really given so much leeway. If you look at the races without radios, even now the peloton manages to catch the break. tht's bcoz they never let break go too far away. Now, breaks can be given 10 mins if the peloton feels that they can catch the break.

Can long-range attacks succeed? definitely yes. A strong rider will always be capable of doing it.

 

[Broth3r]

They can still work. This one simply didn't because it was from too far, and the riders too weak.

 

[More Strides than Rides]

It can still happen but team radios can make it harder to achieve these days. I love watching other races where riders catch breaks and then have to ask them if that's it or if there are others up the road still or not. It's great.

Race radios have nothing to do with it. It's a race, a physical competition, not a game of hide-and-go-seek.

No, this is not the end. An optimistic view is that someone was willing to risk their low top 10 spot to go for it, which isn't often.

Did we forget about Talansky at the Dauphine?

 

[Sciocco]

I think a lot of it has to do with the strength of the teams. Long attacks can just be reeled in by a strong train as if it were nothing. I believe a reduction in the number of riders per team would go a long way. 8 riders or maybe even 7 per team in a GT would make them significantly weaker which would give the break a better chance. The biggest problem might be losing the spectacle of having a giant peloton. 22 teams of 9 riders is 198 in the beginning, whereas 8 riders at the same number of teams would be 176 total riders and 7 riders per team would be 154 total riders. This could be offset by allowing more teams into the race of course, 24 or 25 teams if 8 riders (192/200 total riders) and 28 teams if 7 riders (196 total riders). That may actually be even better as more teams would hopefully mean more agendas and more "craziness" going on during the race. I believe I read somewhere on this forum that UCI was considering lowering the max number of riders per team to 8 for world tour races (I cannot find where I read that).

Also doesn't help that riders love that amazing 7th spot in the GC. I hope they change the points system to increase aggressive riding but I doubt that'll ever happen.

 

[qwerty16]

Did we forget about Talansky at the Dauphine?

And Quintana at the Giro.

 

[AICA ribonucleotide]

A day after Tony Martin wins a stage by attacking 20km from the start long range attacks are now a waste of time?

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Nairo Quintana says hi.

 

[Pulpstar]

A day after Tony Martin wins a stage by attacking 20km from the start long range attacks are now a waste of time?

Movistar need to not renew Piti's contract, and spend the cash on getting Tony Martin.

Tony Martin & Quintana - That'd be an awesome setup

 

[karlboss]

A day after Tony Martin wins a stage by attacking 20km from the start long range attacks are now a waste of time?

Agree

If anyone has any sense we are seeing it reborn, Quintana, Rolland at the Giro, Talansky at the Dauphine, and for those who weren't really watching, one guy took on a team and delivered his teammate fresh to the base of the penultimate climb with 20km to ride and just over 2 minutes in hand. It's hardly the fault of the tactic that Kwiatkowski crumbled. Just quietly, the day for Kwitkowski and Martin was stage 9, small break get over the final climbs together and a pairs TT to the line. Rather than saying how pointless a breakaway is, why is not ask what if Visconti helped a little to really pile the pressure on? What if we put our guy in the break with one helper instead of sitting behind Astana, what if another team did it too? Once Astana was chasing, what would have happened if heaven forbid we attacked before the break had come back, maybe some of the riders who've been swapping turns on the front get shelled.
Every know and then we can see what can happen with a long range attack, and instead of seeing the opportunities: 20km to go 2 min up one guy alone did that. Too many people see: Kwiatkowski 2:13 behind stage winner.

 

[shinoda13]

Movistar need to not renew Piti's contract, and spend the cash on getting Tony Martin.

Tony Martin & Quintana - That'd be an awesome setup

Yes! Tony would hide Nairo in his backpocket for maximum drafting the whole stage, only to jump for a sprint and win in the last 100m.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Race radios have nothing to do with it. It's a race, a physical competition, not a game of hide-and-go-seek.

No, this is not the end. An optimistic view is that someone was willing to risk their low top 10 spot to go for it, which isn't often.

Did we forget about Talansky at the Dauphine?

Talansky only succeeded against a weak team from Tinkoff.
Against the strengths of Astana's tour team this year or Sky ('12) Talansky would have failed completely.

Same for Contador's long distance attack in Vuelta . Weak Katusha had been working at the front for days. J-Rod and Moreno doesn't provide much firepower during a rouleur section . Similar tactics from Contador would have failed in the Tour against a strong team.

Quintana's long distance attack (AX3) in the tour last year was quashed by team Sky. No chance for him.

Take Quintana's long distance attack in the Giro this year, well it only worked as a result of a botched neutralization. Without the fucc up, the stage would have been a wheelsuckers paradise just like the rest of the MTFs in that giro.

Excessive team strength suffocate exciting race action and reduces the spectacle to 3 km sprint on multi mountain stages. Crazy development.

And of course team radios helps a strong team control a stage. Goes without saying.

Unless there is a way to reduce team strength in a race like the Tour, I'm pretty confident we will see less long distance attacks moving forward.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

First there should be a true definition of "long range attacks".
Second if we look at how many times "escapers" win at GTs we´d be surprised how often they work (on average at least 5 times per GT since 2009)... A pretty high number given they (almost) never work on the circa 7 flat stages per GT.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

First there should be a true definition of "long range attacks".
Second if we look at how many times "escapers" win at GTs we´d be surprised how often they work (on average at least 5 times per GT since 2009)... A pretty high number given they (almost) never work on the circa 7 flat stages per GT.

My definition involves attacking (GC contender) before the last climb.
Otherwise its just a calculated waiting game.