Does Cancellara have a shot?

[Ninety5rpm]

He can probably keep the jersey on Thursday (6)... but what about Friday (7)?
He seems to be in the best form ever, winner of Tour de Suisse, monster in the ITT, TTT and on the flats in the wind!

I swear I read some where that he's lighter now. Maybe he'll be able to hold Armstrong's wheel? If he gets through Friday, it looks like no big mountains until next Sunday, Stage 15. If he can hold off Lance and Alberto in Stage 7, then stage 15 probably too. After that all that's left is Ventoux, and the ITT, where he is likely to pick up time, perhaps more than what he might lose on Ventoux. Never underestimate the power of yellow.

Wouldn't it be amazing if Cancellara won the tour by holding on to his 1/10th of a second through the end?

Or, if he keeps his losses to a minimum on the three mountain finishes, maybe he can get it all back in the ITT?

He does have the Schlecks to use to help him and throw off Astana.

 

[The Falcon]

chewing on livestrongs wheel will be the least of his worries.....he will lose yellow Friday......im fairly confident Saxo will let Andy out of his cage and it will be on.

 

[BroDeal]

He is supposedly quite a bit lighter. If Cancellara can ever win the Tour then this course is the one he could win on. The climbs are mostly moderate.

Still I do not see how he will keep up with a rider like Contador or Schleck when they get out of the saddle and really give it all, no matter how much weight he has lost.

After A. Schleck dropped back in the TdS to give Cancellara the leader's jersey, it would seem likely that Canc will repay the favor in the Tour by supporting Schleck.

 

[jonjungel]

It would be cool, and VERY surprising .

I think there is a slight chance he will be able to hold Armstrong's wheel on friday, but he will definately lose more than 20 seconds to Contador.

If he really goes for it up to Verbier, he might be able to limit his losses and take back the lead in the TT. On Ventoux it will be bye-bye for Fabian.

I'm still certain that Andy will be the best placed Saxo rider on GC after Ventoux.

In this post all paragraphs start with an I.

 

[Franklin]

He gave too much already. But maybe next year? If there are enough TT's in the first week he could try a "Big Mig" style win.

 

[issoisso]

Stage 6? He'll hold on. Stage 7? No chance

 

[Epicycle]

It's time for him to start working for Schleck. He got his Suisse win, opening stage TT and yellow jersey. He's been duly compensated.

 

[sherer]

would love to see him getting an overall win in the tour but don't think this will be the year. It it was he wouldn't have been doing work on the front yesterday. I think he can do it but he will need to change as a rider a bit, lose a bit of the power on the flat but gain more in the climbs

 

[Ferminal]

It's highly improbable that he is capable of it.

Even if he might be, he's not going to do the selfish thing, tomorrow he will be throwing his chances away by putting everything down for Schleck x 2.

 

[elapid]

Commentators have been talking about Cancellara for the last couple of years as being one of the riders that could make the transition to a GC contender. He climbed well last year in support of Sastre and the Schlecks, and his climbing ability will not be hurt by his reported 5-6 kg weight loss this year. However, that being said, there are no Rasmussens in the SaxoBank team and they will all work as a team to do their best to achieve their aims, which I believe is to have Andy Schleck standing on the podium.

 

[Anonymous]

In a word: No.

However, It would be nice if he could. I think Saxo's chase on stage 3 was clear indication that A. Schleck is the leader for GC.

 

[gingerwallaceafro]

There's absolutely no way on this planet Cancellara will be in Yellow after friday's stage.

 

[Greg Johnson]

Wouldn't it be amazing if Cancellara won the tour by holding on to his 1/10th of a second through the end?

Yes. Very amazing. Unfortunately it's far too early in the game and there's just no chance that there won't be a huge (relative to tenths of seconds at least) shake up of the overall standings. We're not even in the mountains yet!

yellow.

Dear gawd. I had to duck when I saw that colour. I thought some beam of light was being shot from my computer!

Cheers
Greg Johnson

 

[Jayarbie]

Not a chance. By the end of tomorrow, Contador will be in yellow for the rest of the race.

 

[NigelDean]

Cancellara on the track

I'd like to see what Spartacus could do on the track. He almost always destroys the ITTs or prologues (except last year when Schumacher doped his way to victory) and I don't think I've ever seen him beaten by Wiggins. Given that Wiggins is the 4km pursuit world record holder, what chances that Cancellara could dominate this too?

Don't think he'll win the TdF any time soon though.

 

[ingsve]

Before the tour I speculated that he might possibly hold on to a top 3 place. My thought then was that He would crush the first TT which he did. Then if Saxo Bank had also won the TTT giving him even more time I thougt that he might have up to a minute on the biggest favourites. Then if he got the chance he could keep himself perhaps in yellow on Arcalis with smart riding. After that he could defend his position on Verbier and the other mountain stages. Perhaps a couple riders gets passed him. Then he would smash everyone in the TT again and finally give it his all on Ventoux to finish 3rd overall...

That was in my mind a best case scenario for Cancellara. As it turns out it won't happen that way and he will instead be working totally for Andy Schleck imo.

 

[bdbrooks74]

Absolutely

Anyone who says Cancellara has no shot at winning the tour hasn't been paying attention. He's definitely not a favorite, but he's been the best TT in the world for a while, and he's down to Big Mig's racing weight now - definitely not light, but considering how much power he has (and he clearly hasn't lost it despite dropping some weight), Contador and other GC contenders would do well to keep an eye on Cancellara.

Being in yellow should help him out a lot as well, as there's a chance that the team won't force him to set the pace before the final climb tomorrow. If he finishes in or near the front group tomorrow, the team almost has to give him a chance to prove he should be the GC leader (Schleck is currently around 1:45 down). And that's certainly possible - he never gave up more than 7 seconds on any of the climbs in Switzerland. And before you go on about how the Tour of Switzerland is not the Tour de France - it's much more indicative of potential in Cancellara's case b/c he's always had the class to win, he's just been a little too heavy to hang in on the climbs. He's also shown he can recover by doing well in the final TT of last years tour.

Anyway, he's definitely a dark horse, but it's possible that he'll be in the lead when the tour gets to Paris, and I for one am hoping he'll hold on.

 

[jaylew]

Anyone who says Cancellara has no shot at winning the tour hasn't been paying attention. He's definitely not a favorite, but he's been the best TT in the world for a while, and he's down to Big Mig's racing weight now - definitely not light, but considering how much power he has (and he clearly hasn't lost it despite dropping some weight), Contador and other GC contenders would do well to keep an eye on Cancellara.

Being in yellow should help him out a lot as well, as there's a chance that the team won't force him to set the pace before the final climb tomorrow. If he finishes in or near the front group tomorrow, the team almost has to give him a chance to prove he should be the GC leader (Schleck is currently around 1:45 down). And that's certainly possible - he never gave up more than 7 seconds on any of the climbs in Switzerland. And before you go on about how the Tour of Switzerland is not the Tour de France - it's much more indicative of potential in Cancellara's case b/c he's always had the class to win, he's just been a little too heavy to hang in on the climbs. He's also shown he can recover by doing well in the final TT of last years tour.

Anyway, he's definitely a dark horse, but it's possible that he'll be in the lead when the tour gets to Paris, and I for one am hoping he'll hold on.

Absolutely zero chance. He will probably finish 10 minutes back on Ventoux, alone. And yes, I've been paying attention.

 

[Ninety5rpm]

Anyone who says Cancellara has no shot at winning the tour hasn't been paying attention. He's definitely not a favorite, but he's been the best TT in the world for a while, and he's down to Big Mig's racing weight now - definitely not light, but considering how much power he has (and he clearly hasn't lost it despite dropping some weight), Contador and other GC contenders would do well to keep an eye on Cancellara.

Being in yellow should help him out a lot as well, as there's a chance that the team won't force him to set the pace before the final climb tomorrow. If he finishes in or near the front group tomorrow, the team almost has to give him a chance to prove he should be the GC leader (Schleck is currently around 1:45 down). And that's certainly possible - he never gave up more than 7 seconds on any of the climbs in Switzerland. And before you go on about how the Tour of Switzerland is not the Tour de France - it's much more indicative of potential in Cancellara's case b/c he's always had the class to win, he's just been a little too heavy to hang in on the climbs. He's also shown he can recover by doing well in the final TT of last years tour.

Anyway, he's definitely a dark horse, but it's possible that he'll be in the lead when the tour gets to Paris, and I for one am hoping he'll hold on.

Except for the hoping he'll hold on (I just want the strongest man to win, I don't care who it is in particular) I agree with all of the above. I think he'll be much more successful in the mountains than most think, especially while clad in yellow.

 

[Ninety5rpm]

Absolutely zero chance. He will probably finish 10 minutes back on Ventoux, alone. And yes, I've been paying attention.

Hmm. Sounds like a poll in the making... how many minutes will Cancellara lose to whoever is or becomes the GC leader on the Ventoux...