Effects of coronavirus on professional races

[tobydawq]

So three riders tested positive by now and two of them were among the top contenders for the win and the third is another big name? What are the odds?

If we assume there are 30 big names in the race, the odds are
(((30 x29x28)/(176x175x174))/(1-((30x29x28)/(176x175x174)) = 1/219

 

[RedheadDane]

If we assume there are 30 big names in the race, the odds are (((30 x29x28)/(176x175x174))/(1-((30x29x28)/(176x175x174))

Will you stop being all math teacher?

 

[tobydawq]

Will you stop being all math teacher?

It's fall holiday, I have to impose my skills on someone else than usually.

 

[gregrowlerson]

So three riders tested positive by now and two of them were among the top contenders for the win and the third is another big name? What are the odds?

Quite low I would imagine. Nobody wants to hang around losers.

 

[Danskebjerge]

I'm not so scared. Riders getting confectious diseases is unlikely to be a new thing, and it's not like this is infinitely more contagious than the common cold or the flu, and we quite rarely see entire pelotons (or indeed large parts) falling victim to the same disease during a race...

That may be because they remain healthy although they got the virus. There hasn't been much talk about this phenomenon in the past, but the epidemic has changed this. Also, the tests they are using now might be very sensitive.

 

[tobydawq]

That may be because they remain healthy although they got the virus. There hasn't been much talk about this phenomenon in the past, but the epidemic has changed this. Also, the tests they are using now might be very sensitive.

Yeah, perhaps true.

 

[bajbar]

The problem with the stance on Covid (not jut in cycling, in general) is that it is quite hypocritical. For example. I was listening to The social distance podcast (with Sam Bewley and George Bennet) during the Tour. George said he had a viral infection during the whole Tour (or at least the first two weeks). Probably due to his body dealing with crahes on day 1 and not caring about taking care of that virus. So he was coughing, sneezing and felt bad in general during the whole two weeks. But it was not corona, so all was well. If it WAS though, the symptoms would still be the same (or there might have been none even), the chance of someone from the team getting it would still be pretty much the same as with that common cold/flu/whatever he got. Yet in that case, he would be thrown off the race, quaranteened, there would even be a risk of the whole team having to leave.

I remember hearing about stomach bugs (also a viral infection, that causes objectively more problems for cyclists than Covid) spreading like wildfire in numerous GTs and week long stage races in the past. Whole teams got it, every one was clearly underpefrorming and visibly sick. Yet they "battled on" (and infecting others in the process). If they felt really bad, they left the race. There was never talk of the race organizers removing a rider so others would not get infected.

I am saying that because Covid virus will remain present in some way, shape or form indefinetely. And I wonder when (if ever) the public and the media (and cycling organizations) will start treating it like "just another virus" and not "the plague that will kill half of world population".

 

[Scarponi]

7 out of 500 when it’s as easy to catch as scientists claim is really good in hindsight

 

[Scarponi]

The problem with the stance on Covid (not jut in cycling, in general) is that it is quite hypocritical. For example. I was listening to The social distance podcast (with Sam Bewley and George Bennet) during the Tour. George said he had a viral infection during the whole Tour (or at least the first two weeks). Probably due to his body dealing with crahes on day 1 and not caring about taking care of that virus. So he was coughing, sneezing and felt bad in general during the whole two weeks. But it was not corona, so all was well. If it WAS though, the symptoms would still be the same (or there might have been none even), the chance of someone from the team getting it would still be pretty much the same as with that common cold/flu/whatever he got. Yet in that case, he would be thrown off the race, quaranteened, there would even be a risk of the whole team having to leave.

I remember hearing about stomach bugs (also a viral infection, that causes objectively more problems for cyclists than Covid) spreading like wildfire in numerous GTs and week long stage races in the past. Whole teams got it, every one was clearly underpefrorming and visibly sick. Yet they "battled on" (and infecting others in the process). If they felt really bad, they left the race. There was never talk of the race organizers removing a rider so others would not get infected.

I am saying that because Covid virus will remain present in some way, shape or form indefinetely. And I wonder when (if ever) the public and the media (and cycling organizations) will start treating it like "just another virus" and not "the plague that will kill half of world population".

Exactly this, they should start throwing out anyone who is sick in any form if they truly care about riders safety

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

And now Jumbo Visma have pulled out en masse.

 

[tobydawq]

The problem with the stance on Covid (not jut in cycling, in general) is that it is quite hypocritical. For example. I was listening to The social distance podcast (with Sam Bewley and George Bennet) during the Tour. George said he had a viral infection during the whole Tour (or at least the first two weeks). Probably due to his body dealing with crahes on day 1 and not caring about taking care of that virus. So he was coughing, sneezing and felt bad in general during the whole two weeks. But it was not corona, so all was well. If it WAS though, the symptoms would still be the same (or there might have been none even), the chance of someone from the team getting it would still be pretty much the same as with that common cold/flu/whatever he got. Yet in that case, he would be thrown off the race, quaranteened, there would even be a risk of the whole team having to leave.

I remember hearing about stomach bugs (also a viral infection, that causes objectively more problems for cyclists than Covid) spreading like wildfire in numerous GTs and week long stage races in the past. Whole teams got it, every one was clearly underpefrorming and visibly sick. Yet they "battled on" (and infecting others in the process). If they felt really bad, they left the race. There was never talk of the race organizers removing a rider so others would not get infected.

I am saying that because Covid virus will remain present in some way, shape or form indefinetely. And I wonder when (if ever) the public and the media (and cycling organizations) will start treating it like "just another virus" and not "the plague that will kill half of world population".

To the last part; I really hope that soon will happen as this whole thing is ridiculous (especially what they write about the situation in Australia is quite shocking).

 

[roundabout]

It's more deadly than flu, it's more contagious than flu, the risk of long-term effects seems to be higher than flu and yet some still want to treat them the same.

 

[gregrowlerson]

It's more deadly than flu, it's more contagious than flu, the risk of long-term effects seems to be higher than flu and yet some still want to treat them the same.

Nobody wants to treat it the same. But when it is flu season are there any restrictions at all? No. Festivals, stadiums, bars fully operational. And no doubt that much flu spreads because of this, and vulnerable people die. As many as can with covid? No, of course not. But the problem is that it goes from one extreme to the other. There is no happy medium.

Most of it is dictated by the media. Imagine if last year a random news day opened with "Today 5 people in aged care died from the flu. Shouldn't this say something about our care free way of life?"

Vulnerable people have their lives cut short regularly, but it is not reported.

 

[ice&fire]

Nobody wants to treat it the same. But when it is flu season are there any restrictions at all? No. Festivals, stadiums, bars fully operational. And no doubt that much flu spreads because of this, and vulnerable people die. As many as can with covid? No, of course not. But the problem is that it goes from one extreme to the other. There is no happy medium.

Most of it is dictated by the media. Imagine if last year a random news day opened with "Today 5 people in aged care died from the flu. Shouldn't this say something about our care free way of life?"

Vulnerable people have their lives cut short regularly, but it is not reported.

Seasonal flu doesn't put hospitals and ICUs anywhere close to the stress levels that COVID-19 does.

 

[hrotha]

"No one wants to treat it like the flu, but why don't we do any of this stuff for the flu". K.

 

[gregrowlerson]

"No one wants to treat it like the flu, but why don't we do any of this stuff for the flu". K.

Some of this stuff for the flu. Maybe wearing masks to the supermarket will become common. And why not? Doing so doesn't greatly impede on happiness. However, things like music festivals do add great happiness to many people's lives (and having to wear masks would impede on that happiness to a large degree). It's a balance thing. Quantity and Quality of life. Not heavily favouring one or the other.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Seasonal flu doesn't put hospitals and ICUs anywhere close to the stress levels that COVID-19 does.

That is true.

But in Melbourne it was announced yesterday that we have 0 people in ICU with covid, so our hospitals are under no stress because of covid. Yet many businesses remain shut down. There is no balance.

 

[Danskebjerge]

I remember hearing about stomach bugs (also a viral infection, that causes objectively more problems for cyclists than Covid) spreading like wildfire in numerous GTs and week long stage races in the past. Whole teams got it, every one was clearly underpefrorming and visibly sick. Yet they "battled on" (and infecting others in the process). If they felt really bad, they left the race. There was never talk of the race organizers removing a rider so others would not get infected.

The difference is that covid-19 is politics, influenza etc isn't. I agree that the riders probably often carry different viruses around with them - they just tend to not fall ill.

 

[Red Rick]

The problem with the stance on Covid (not jut in cycling, in general) is that it is quite hypocritical. For example. I was listening to The social distance podcast (with Sam Bewley and George Bennet) during the Tour. George said he had a viral infection during the whole Tour (or at least the first two weeks). Probably due to his body dealing with crahes on day 1 and not caring about taking care of that virus. So he was coughing, sneezing and felt bad in general during the whole two weeks. But it was not corona, so all was well. If it WAS though, the symptoms would still be the same (or there might have been none even), the chance of someone from the team getting it would still be pretty much the same as with that common cold/flu/whatever he got. Yet in that case, he would be thrown off the race, quaranteened, there would even be a risk of the whole team having to leave.

I remember hearing about stomach bugs (also a viral infection, that causes objectively more problems for cyclists than Covid) spreading like wildfire in numerous GTs and week long stage races in the past. Whole teams got it, every one was clearly underpefrorming and visibly sick. Yet they "battled on" (and infecting others in the process). If they felt really bad, they left the race. There was never talk of the race organizers removing a rider so others would not get infected.

I am saying that because Covid virus will remain present in some way, shape or form indefinetely. And I wonder when (if ever) the public and the media (and cycling organizations) will start treating it like "just another virus" and not "the plague that will kill half of world population".

The scenes from creamed ICU wards in Italy in March might be why we don't treat this one like "just another virus"
.

 

[hrotha]

Some of this stuff for the flu. Maybe wearing masks to the supermarket will become common. And why not? Doing so doesn't greatly impede on happiness. However, things like music festivals do add great happiness to many people's lives (and having to wear masks would impede on that happiness to a large degree). It's a balance thing. Quantity and Quality of life. Not heavily favouring one or the other.

I could definitely see masks becoming about as common everywhere as in East Asia, and maybe going to work while sick will finally be frowned upon (and crucially, employers who make it difficult for workers to take sick leave will be guillotined). That's reasonable. But 90% of the time the people saying this are just concern trolling and they wouldn't actually want any of those things to become permanent fixtures in our lives, so naturally I'm sceptical.

 

[Danskebjerge]

Maybe they end up cancelling the Giro because of "snow in the Alps". ;-) Then the organizers can't be blamed for bad handling of the corona threat.

But what a tragedy it would be for Fuglsang who has had a long carreer of bad luck in GTs, and now finally had a top result to look forward to.

 

[ice&fire]

I could definitely see masks becoming about as common everywhere as in East Asia, and maybe going to work while sick will finally be frowned upon (and crucially, employers who make it difficult for workers to take sick leave will be guillotined). That's reasonable. But 90% of the time the people saying this are just concern trolling and they wouldn't actually want any of those things to become permanent fixtures in our lives, so naturally I'm sceptical.

I'm getting the impression that advice and recommendations are just ignored at all levels, so the 'guillotine' incentive is key.

 

[Red Rick]

I'm getting the impression that advice and recommendations are just ignored at all levels, so the 'guillotine' incentive is key.

Sadly it is. Really fun to be on a lab and be the only one wearing a mask properly. Totally not infuriating at all.

 

[sir fly]

The Mitchelton situation's not good for the race at all.
That's a number of riders carrying the virus through the bunch for few stages.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

The Mitchelton situation's not good for the race at all.
That's a number of riders carrying the virus through the bunch for few stages.

It was staffers, not riders, that tested positive.