Ashtabula said:
As this encounter shows, the top pros think it's worth doing. Why? Would the road be that different from previous years, or is it a psychological effect?
It's cold up there at the end of May, won't it be a different place, with different surfaces, etc. in the middle of July?
The course and the climbs change every year, so they haven't seen it much. This year they go up the Tourmalet twice, I believe once each way on different days, so that would make a difference. The Tourmalet was used in the Tour in 2006, 2008, and 2009. Contador wasn't allowed to race in 2006 or 2008, so last year was probably his first time on the climb (I haven't checked the Dauphine).
There's no reason to think that he did it perfectly the first time, and couldn't find a way to do it better this year. Also, he could see which teammates were able to ride with him, and start strategizing together.
Just riding an Hors Categorie climb is a big part of preparation. The riders can decide which sections suit their own characteristics for an attack, and where other riders might put them in danger.
Evans said that when his DS took him on recon of the Mur de Huy this year, he realized he'd been riding it wrong all the other years. He credited that with his win over Contador.
At Paris-Nice, the Caisse DS scouted one stage in advance by car and told the team that they should attack on a certain curve and take advantage of the wind to cause a separation.
At the Tour last year, the famous break by Columbia in which Armstrong put time on Contador was a result of another recon drive by someone on the team. That, like Paris-Nice, wasn't some master stroke by a more experienced rider - it was decided by staff in the team bus. That's why I laugh when people say the wind is Contador's kryptonite. What he doesn't seem to have is someone doing course recon for him in advance.