Evans can win Le Tour!

[eatyourvitamins]

Sure. I think that you make a good point. I might have overstated a little. Horner was always good but really the only guy only on that was consistent in the mountains. They really did try to ramp it up with Poppo, Kohl and Dekker and got screwed on all counts for verious reasons. To my mind though, it still always came in dribs and drabs and when they did sign someone good the message seemed to be 'there! We signed a world class mountain domestique Cadel, you have no excuses now!'. There was never anymore than two proven and experience world class climbers to support him in the hills. He always had good support on the flats though... sweet.

I think you also make a good point regarding the motivation of guys to ride for him. I get the feeling his eccentricities of character may not always garner maximum team morale, to say the least. This is a problem. I hope he has realised it and attempted to improve that at BMC. Though it is also possible that the guys in BMC are just naturally a better fit in terms of character. But it's pretty obvious why kohl and dekker never worked out and the same could be said for poppo... probably a little more 'bread and water' at lotto than his diet was tuned to. Horner never seemed to have a problem killing himself for Evans. Maybe they got on better, maybe Horner is just more professional.

 

[Lanark]

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/evans-rates-schleck-and-basso-as-top-tour-de-france-rivals

He makes some fairly clear quotes in this article that support what many have discussed in this thread regarding his past racing schedules and penchant for trying to win when he gets a 'sniff'. It seems that at lotto especially, it was a mix of his natural approach to 'race to win' and pressure from the team for him to race and win at smaller races. I mean lets face it, as soon as Mcewen left (and he had been plagued by form/injury issues for awhile before that if my memory serves me right), Lotto really had no-one but Cadel to give there sponsors or fans anything to cheer. He was their only card for a few years until Gilbert later on and then JVB much later on just before cadel left. He should have left that team at least 2 seasons earlier. Redant and Sargeant must be close to mentally ***. They always promised much and NEVER delivered as far as extra support for Cadel. They tried to juggle too many balls without enough hands and still found a way to imply fault on Evans when he couldn't deliver. They never fully committed. Evan's career suffered in the later years at lotto. They were only a good fit earlier on when they gave him the chance he had been denied at other teams.

Anyway. I like the race-hard-all-year approach. How many guys do you see doing that? Everyone gets so caught up with winning the tour/s. But Evans loves racing. He is a professional cyclist. It is good to see someone who can't help trying to win. But if he wants even a chance of winning a GT he needs to curtail that impulse. Looks like he is attempting that this year. It could well be far too late though... I hope not.

I don't think you have your timeline straight. Gilbert joined the team the year after McEwen left. VDB jr. was 7th in the Giro in McEwens last year at Lotto. There never was a gap of a couple of years where Evans was their only card.

And to be honest, the only year Evans lacked support in the Tour was in 2008. In 2007 Horner was in great shape. They got Popo to replace him, but who could have guessed he would be in such a terrible shape in 2008? In 2009 they bought Kohl and Dekker, and had VDB riding in support of him in the Tour, of course he decided to peak for the Dauphiné that year, so it doesn't even matter.

 

[eatyourvitamins]

Damiani , Sergaent and Coucke are the real retards. redant was one of the more 'sane' ones.

Yeah you're right. Sorry my mistake. Subconsciously added Redant. He did seem okay.

 

[eatyourvitamins]

I don't think you have your timeline straight. Gilbert joined the team the year after McEwen left. VDB jr. was 7th in the Giro in McEwens last year at Lotto. There never was a gap of a couple of years where Evans was their only card.

And to be honest, the only year Evans lacked support in the Tour was in 2008. In 2007 Horner was in great shape. They got Popo to replace him, but who could have guessed he would be in such a terrible shape in 2008? In 2009 they bought Kohl and Dekker, and had VDB riding in support of him in the Tour, of course he decided to peak for the Dauphiné that year, so it doesn't even matter.

Sorry I am working largely from memory without checking all of my facts. So I am sure that your timeline is more accurate. I would disagree that he wasn't their only real card though. What else of note did they win during those years? Apart from Gilbert's one day consistency and occasional classics win they had nothing to excite the sponsors or the fans. 7th at the Giro for VDB?... that is impressive and shows potential but it hardly gets anyone invested excited. I could have guessed that poppo would be in terrible shape... I think LA and JB could have guessed it too. Yes, he had VDB and which other world class mountain domestique? Like i said, he never had more than two. That WAS partly down to the bad luck with Dekker and Kohl. It could be said that Lotto did finally attempt to make a serious push in 09 and got screwed by the doping bogey man.

These are not excuses for Evans. He should have been fresher each year himself if he was bent on winning le tour. But the small margins he lost by in those two tours would suggest that even fatigued, he should have won with at least 1 more serious mountain domestique. The guys he lost to had multiple jamming mountain goats to rely on. When it comes down to it, no matter how hard they did or did not try to get him good support, they failed, and in so doing maybe binned two tour wins.

 

[movingtarget]

Sure, Evans was supported by some good riders but at the critical moments in the high mountains he had no one. Horner was great until the attacks started and the others were already gone off the back. A simple error cost him the 2007 Tour when he waited for someone else to close a gap which was never closed. I am convinced that the 2008 Tour loss was mainly from the result of his fall. His final time trial was mediocre by his standards. He never fully recovered. Would he have won the race without the fall ?Considering the overall margin I think so as he would not have lost as much time to Sastre on Alpe D'uez and should have done a stronger time trial. Should, could would .........I think there are still good results to be had by Evan but whether he can win, I am unsure. Motivation should not be a problem ! He seems happier. Someone needs to make him angry again.

 

[eatyourvitamins]

Sure, Evans was supported by some good riders but at the critical moments in the high mountains he had no one. Horner was great until the attacks started and the others were already gone off the back. A simple error cost him the 2007 Tour when he waited for someone else to close a gap which was never closed. I am convinced that the 2008 Tour loss was mainly from the result of his fall. His final time trial was mediocre by his standards. He never fully recovered. Would he have won the race without the fall ?Considering the overall margin I think so as he would not have lost as much time to Sastre on Alpe D'uez and should have done a stronger time trial. Should, could would .........I think there are still good results to be had by Evan but whether he can win, I am unsure. Motivation should not be a problem ! He seems happier. Someone needs to make him angry again.

couldn't agree more

 

[theyoungest]

Sure, Evans was supported by some good riders but at the critical moments in the high mountains he had no one. Horner was great until the attacks started and the others were already gone off the back. A simple error cost him the 2007 Tour when he waited for someone else to close a gap which was never closed. I am convinced that the 2008 Tour loss was mainly from the result of his fall. His final time trial was mediocre by his standards. He never fully recovered. Would he have won the race without the fall ?Considering the overall margin I think so as he would not have lost as much time to Sastre on Alpe D'uez and should have done a stronger time trial. Should, could would .........I think there are still good results to be had by Evan but whether he can win, I am unsure. Motivation should not be a problem ! He seems happier. Someone needs to make him angry again.

Have you seen BMC in the Giro? That must have been one of the worst teams ever to ride the roads of Italy. Lotto would never dare to field such a weak team. The change is mainly in his head, as you imply yourself. His team really isn't that much stronger, at least it wasn't last year. And this year his support in the mountains isn't spectacular either. Morabito, ... that's it.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I mean lets face it, as soon as Mcewen left (and he had been plagued by form/injury issues for awhile before that if my memory serves me right), Lotto really had no-one but Cadel to give there sponsors or fans anything to cheer. He was their only card for a few years until Gilbert later on and then JVB much later on just before cadel left.

Even ignoring the timescale problems (as McEwen had been on the wane for a while before that), how about Leif Hoste?

Leif, just like Evans, made a career out of coming 2nd and whining about it. Unfortunately for Leif, unlike Evans he hasn't managed to get that win and overcome that psychological block.

He should have left that team at least 2 seasons earlier. Redant and Sargeant must be close to mentally ***. They always promised much and NEVER delivered as far as extra support for Cadel. They tried to juggle too many balls without enough hands and still found a way to imply fault on Evans when he couldn't deliver. They never fully committed. Evan's career suffered in the later years at lotto. They were only a good fit earlier on when they gave him the chance he had been denied at other teams.

How fully are they supposed to commit? They're a Belgian Classics team, they NEED Classics riders. It's a huge part of their sponsorship. They broke the bank on riders for Evans, but they had no experience of how to nurse a GC talent, and Evans wasn't a strong enough personality to tell them in no uncertain terms. The top brass at Lotto did try quite hard for Evans, whilst also juggling other commitments like the necessity of being strong in the Classics and giving support to other strong personalities (such as McEwen) who were not conducive to helping Evans given their irreconcilable goals. For whatever reason, the riders they got didn't provide Evans with the help he needed, but it wasn't for want of trying. At the same time, it's a two way thing, and if Lotto weren't moving things in the direction Evans wanted, it was down to Evans to tell them so - but to do it respectfully, not by publicly moaning about the poor quality of the riders who were killing themselves for him. What's that meant to do to their confidence?

Anyway. I like the race-hard-all-year approach. How many guys do you see doing that? Everyone gets so caught up with winning the tour/s. But Evans loves racing. He is a professional cyclist. It is good to see someone who can't help trying to win. But if he wants even a chance of winning a GT he needs to curtail that impulse. Looks like he is attempting that this year. It could well be far too late though... I hope not.

obviously there are a few riders who race hard all year, but Evans is definitely one of the most visible. Valverde, Joaquím Rodríguez, Tyler Farrar and Alexander Vinokourov are a few others.

 

[El Pistolero]

Even ignoring the timescale problems (as McEwen had been on the wane for a while before that), how about Leif Hoste?

Leif, just like Evans, made a career out of coming 2nd and whining about it. Unfortunately for Leif, unlike Evans he hasn't managed to get that win and overcome that psychological block.

How fully are they supposed to commit? They're a Belgian Classics team, they NEED Classics riders. It's a huge part of their sponsorship. They broke the bank on riders for Evans, but they had no experience of how to nurse a GC talent, and Evans wasn't a strong enough personality to tell them in no uncertain terms. The top brass at Lotto did try quite hard for Evans, whilst also juggling other commitments like the necessity of being strong in the Classics and giving support to other strong personalities (such as McEwen) who were not conducive to helping Evans given their irreconcilable goals. For whatever reason, the riders they got didn't provide Evans with the help he needed, but it wasn't for want of trying. At the same time, it's a two way thing, and if Lotto weren't moving things in the direction Evans wanted, it was down to Evans to tell them so - but to do it respectfully, not by publicly moaning about the poor quality of the riders who were killing themselves for him. What's that meant to do to their confidence?



obviously there are a few riders who race hard all year, but Evans is definitely one of the most visible. Valverde, Joaquím Rodríguez, Tyler Farrar and Alexander Vinokourov are a few others.

I'd say Contador is a little bit more visible than Cuddles
Sure he quits his season after the Tour, but there's only 2 races of real importance after the Tour(for him), so doesn't matter. I'm excluding the Vuelta because he has yet to proof if he can win Tour+Vuelta in the same year and unlike many others he's only willing to ride it if he can win.

 

[movingtarget]

Have you seen BMC in the Giro? That must have been one of the worst teams ever to ride the roads of Italy. Lotto would never dare to field such a weak team. The change is mainly in his head, as you imply yourself. His team really isn't that much stronger, at least it wasn't last year. And this year his support in the mountains isn't spectacular either. Morabito, ... that's it.

Moinard and Tschopp look like decent buys but will they still be thereabouts when the fur is flying ? Doubtful. Hopeful. A couple of Spanish mountain goats would have helped. But most of the quality Spanish climbers are already signed up. I think BMC will be a much tighter unit than they were in the Giro but they have to be. The younger riders tried hard at the Giro but it was a real learning experience for them and a very tough tour. BMC's TDF team did better but with Evan's injury it all went pear shaped.