Cuddles could podium but he won't win.
He may even stick with Basso - it was only on the really steep stuff that he couldn't hang with the Liquigas leader - given that Tour climbs don't tend to have the same gradients as their Italian and even Spanish counterparts.
The Evans of today will be less shy about attacking the group or responding to attacks - but I feel that at his age he's going to be less capable of going with the best even if he is more willing - in the past I almost got the feeling he felt more comfortable once there was something he could blame for not winning - lack of team, Spanish collusion, illness, a crash, an ill-timed puncture or some such - because it meant he could justify it if he didn't win. Once he had a truly big win - the Worlds - this trait seems less at the forefront, and he has not only won more but won over many former detractors.
He'll do a LOT better at the Tour than he did in '09 and '10 though. I guess now he's won the Worlds and a pretty major Classic, he doesn't feel the need to be trying to force things, but I think his competitive instinct may still destroy him, as I just can't ever see the day when Cuddles finds himself in contention for a race, isn't in peak form, but just accepts that and lets go.
It's a shame, as that's always been one of Cuddles' most likable traits - that he is willing to compete for races all year long - but it has hamstrung his attempts to win a GT. Now he's trying the other approach but it may be too late as he is likely no longer at his peak.