Teams & Riders Everybody needs a little bit of Roglstomp in their lives

[CyclistAbi]

Somehow i feel we all know what Roglič must do for this debate to settle.

 

[Jumbot]

Win 2022 Milano-San Remo?
Joking aside I want to see him there and what he can do...

, or Jumbo just *** up the preperation for every monument they target.

I've been seriously thinking about this lately. My opinion was that Roglic is just not great in these long hard one day races, but the same is happening to WvA. They have the same coach, they both fly straight from an altitude camp etc... Maybe Jumbo just lacks in preparing their riders for these kind of races, they are a GC team first and foremost and they always prepare well for TDF, but this year in the 5/6 hardest one day races (not counting MSR) it was disappointment after disappointment while always having one of the biggest favorites. I mean the best performances we've seen from WvA and Roglic in these kind of races were in a crazy 2020 season where everything revolved around your TDF form, there was no time to target your peaks as big races were constantly on the menu.
And if you look beyond their two big leaders even their supporting cast is often disappointing in big classics... Compare Taco in Jumbo and in Wanty for example, so it will be interesting to see performances of newcomers like Laporte next season just for analysis.
Anyway I'm hoping for a better 2022 for both Roglic and the team, especially in the biggest races... And after watching the Golden child putting the game difficulty on easy again, that after witnessing a Quickstep rider becoming a WC again and a guy who put Rogla out of TDF win Paris-Roubaix.... pffff happy it's the end of season, I need a good long break from watching cycling...
Hope everyone is having a good day!

 

[CyclistAbi]

Roglič participated in two semi classics before Lombardia and went all in. Why? Because both were tailor made for him. Similar thing happened before LBL. Bottom line if he wants to be more fresh at the end of such monuments as Lombardia and LBL. Then he needs to sacrifice his chances on "preparation races". Now in the past i would say that would be a rather stupid thing to do. Going forward now he could afford that on lets say one monument of the season. Considering he already won most of the semi classics held around the monument. Still i would say that for now best to take some tailor made one day races too. Not to always go all in on the races where the likelihood of the success is less. A win is still a win. And for example Milano–Torino 2021 was a beautiful win.

 

[Bolder]

Roglič participated in two semi classics before Lombardia and went all in. Why? Because both were tailor made for him. Similar thing happened before LBL. Bottom line if he wants to be more fresh at the end of such monuments as Lombardia and LBL. Then he needs to sacrifice his chances on "preparation races". Now in the past i would say that would be a rather stupid thing to do. Going forward now he could afford that on lets say one monument of the season. Considering he already won most of the semi classics held around the monument. Still i would say that for now best to take some tailor made one day races too. Not to always go all in on the races where the likelihood of the success is less. A win is still a win. And for example Milano–Torino 2021 was a beautiful win.

He just needs to look at the way Pogacar rides his B level races. Just because you CAN win them doesn't mean you have to, if your goal is a monument. But I agree that MT was impressive; so long as we acknowledge the cost...that interest came due in Lombardia.

 

[Rackham]

He just needs to look at the way Pogacar rides his B level races. Just because you CAN win them doesn't mean you have to, if your goal is a monument. But I agree that MT was impressive; so long as we acknowledge the cost...that interest came due in Lombardia.

I think monuments are overrated. I only half joke as well, specifically pertaining to Roglic. He's a stage racer & GT specialist with an uphill kick which on his good days demolishes everyone.

His wins in these classics or semi-classics are not about mastering one day racing (he himself said he's still learning), but about coming into a race which suits his profile with good form & letting his instincts do the rest (Milan-Turin & Emilia are like Vuelta stages with a mountain finish where he can let his speciality as a rider on that sort of route do the talking).

But I don't think he'll ever be entirely comfortable on the sort of stage profiles we see in Liège or Lombardia over that distance, with his team also not geared towards one day races (they're like him, i.e. trained in racing in a week long stage race or GT with everything that involves). So as a fan I'm totally cool seeing Roglic improve his overall win ratio & statistics in the races he can seriously win without sweating over the "monuments" which have their own problems & characteristics which don't really suit him.

I mean getting beaten by Bauke Mollema in the 2019 Lombardia wasn't something to lose sleep over so I doubt this one will keep JV awake at night.

 

[geisterhome]

Do you consider Degenkolb a northern classics star? I don't.

Not really, but that is cos he has become irrelevant years ago, and thats not only in cobbled classics.

But I get your point, if you only win a GT and a cobbled monument and not much else of significance it would for sure would need to be done in some sort of style, random or lucky victories wont do to reach legendary status. Still I think for some the magnitude and unlickelyness of that combination would warrant for borderline legendstatus.

 

[Oldermanish]

Roglič participated in two semi classics before Lombardia and went all in. Why? Because both were tailor made for him. Similar thing happened before LBL. Bottom line if he wants to be more fresh at the end of such monuments as Lombardia and LBL. Then he needs to sacrifice his chances on "preparation races". Now in the past i would say that would be a rather stupid thing to do. Going forward now he could afford that on lets say one monument of the season. Considering he already won most of the semi classics held around the monument. Still i would say that for now best to take some tailor made one day races too. Not to always go all in on the races where the likelihood of the success is less. A win is still a win. And for example Milano–Torino 2021 was a beautiful win.

It's difficult to pull back on available races to win; especially for Primoz. Tadej took a measured approach and took Lombardia. That was easier for him with all of the other accomplishments for the season.
If Roglic wins the TdF; he could make any choice he wanted and not need to second guess himself. I thing the TT crown he won is evidence of a motivated come-back so, if he had some comfort for his season he could probably do just about anything. Except PR. That takes bigger power and a sh*t-ton of good fortune. Classics specialists can waste an entire season only to crash out.

 

[Red Rick]

We might also be overextrapolating a bit from end of season form being a bit more fickle than normal.

 

[dusty red roads]

Yes, after all he recently won a GT so going full gas (and winning) these other races it was bound to catch up with him.

 

[southwards]

One of the reasons Lombardia is widely regarded as the lesser Monument is exactly the question of the form the riders arrive in. Pogacar and (lol) Masnada seem to be the only two riders who correctly targeted Lombardia, every other rider in the field arrived after some hard two months of racing, or, as in the case of Valverde, after injury.

Pogacar tried the same move at the Olympics, everyone caught him, and he was beaten by the Locomotora del Carchi.

 

[Gargamel35]

One of the reasons Lombardia is widely regarded as the lesser Monument is exactly the question of the form the riders arrive in. Pogacar and (lol) Masnada seem to be the only two riders who correctly targeted Lombardia, every other rider in the field arrived after some hard two months of racing, or, as in the case of Valverde, after injury.

Pogacar tried the same move at the Olympics, everyone caught him, and he was beaten by the Locomotora del Carchi.

If guys would cooperate in the back, Pogačar wouldn't win Lombardia. I still don't understand the mindset of everybody in that group. You refuse to work together to get a chance of winning for riding out of the wind and fight for 3rd spot?

 

[southwards]

If guys would cooperate in the back, Pogačar wouldn't win Lombardia. I still don't understand the mindset of everybody in that group. You refuse to work together to get a chance of winning for riding out of the wind and fight for 3rd spot?

I dunno. Pogi beat Gaudu, Alaf, Woods and Valverde at Liège, I have no reason to think he wouldn't beat them again. He is too strong in a flat sprint after 250km of hilly parcours, he even almost beat van Aert at the Olympics.

But what I think is most important is that in Tokyo, people caught Pogacar in a similar climb, in Lombardia he simply rode away. Once you are in the flat a sole rider or a motivated duo has many advantages over a small group, we saw this in almost every breakaway stage in this year. Of course if they rode together they'd catch them, but the incentives for the chase are few: if everyone worked hard, they'd get each a 10% chance of winning, or even smaller due to Alaphilippe not working and being a strong finisher. If everyone worked bar one (let's say Valverde) the rider not pulling has the highest chance of winning (let's say 30%, factoring Alaphilippe and Pogacar being very strong). Consider also that when the gap reached the 30s there was a 50% chance Pogacar would be caught anyway, at least. Rationally I'd say it was better to bet someone would chase than yourself chase (10% vs. 15%).
Of course I made tons of assumptions, but I don't think I'm stretching too much.

 

[OlivSalazar]

Not really, but that is cos he has become irrelevant years ago, and thats not only in cobbled classics.

But I get your point, if you only win a GT and a cobbled monument and not much else of significance it would for sure would need to be done in some sort of style, random or lucky victories wont do to reach legendary status. Still I think for some the magnitude and unlickelyness of that combination would warrant for borderline legendstatus.

Nibali won MSR based on cunning and randomness and mostly luck.

He has been far from the strongest rider from most of his career. Most of his successes in GTs came from avoiding the stronger riders. In 2014 at the tour he was very strong but had the luck of his life, with Froome and Contador dropping. Both riders were destroying Nibali all year long, in any stage race they did, for years but specially that season.

He is an overachiever. The weakest rider with the 3 GTs under his belt. He would never win LBL, PR, RVV or MSR by being even close to the strongest riders. He would never win a GT against the strongest riders he competed against if they were in good health.

And to me it all ads up to his charm and how spectacular he was and how legendary he is to me. It's why I will always remember him and root for him. He is why guys like Gerrans, Leipheimer and so on should fell ashamed.

Nibali dares to be great. What a character. What about those 3rd weeks in GTs when he is obviously behind in the GC but he smells blood and there's a big descent coming up?

Pogacar seems from the same breed, but with the physicality aspect of it too. He's game. But being game is all Nibali has and that's why I will always root for him.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Nibali won MSR based on cunning and randomness and mostly luck.

He has been far from the strongest rider from most of his career. Most of his successes in GTs came from avoiding the stronger riders. In 2014 at the tour he was very strong but had the luck of his life, with Froome and Contador dropping. Both riders were destroying Nibali all year long, in any stage race they did, for years but specially that season.

He is an overachiever. The weakest rider with the 3 GTs under his belt. He would never win LBL, PR, RVV or MSR by being even close to the strongest riders. He would never win a GT against the strongest riders he competed against if they were in good health.

And to me it all ads up to his charm and how spectacular he was and how legendary he is to me. It's why I will always remember him and root for him. He is why guys like Gerrans, Leipheimer and so on should fell ashamed.

Nibali dares to be great. What a character. What about those 3rd weeks in GTs when he is obviously behind in the GC but he smells blood and there's a big descent coming up?

Pogacar seems from the same breed, but with the physicality aspect of it too. He's game. But being game is all Nibali has and that's why I will always root for him.

I got halfway through this post and was already preparing to leave an angry response. Good job I read the rest of it.

But I do think you underrated his physical abilities slightly.

 

[Red Rick]

I got halfway through this post and was already preparing to leave an angry response. Good job I read the rest of it.

But I do think you underrated his physical abilities slightly.

I maintain that Nibs has more near misses than lucky wins even if he's never been the dominant GT racer.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

I maintain that Nibs has more near misses than lucky wins even if he's never been the dominant GT racer.

He had the physical ability to win 2017 Giro, 2018 Worlds + Lombardia (and podium tour), 2019 giro, 2017 Emilia, probably 2013 Vuelta, 2016 Rio.

He also i think would have beaten Contador in 2014 Tour. Froome its difficult to know.

 

[CyclistAbi]

In 2022 i would like to see Roglič participating in:

• Paris–Nice
• La Flèche Wallonne
• Il Lombardia
• Doing nationals RR or ITT
• Slovenia getting long term national team coach capable of managing an all-star team

As for GT racing. Both scenarios would work for me.

1. If the route and field suits Roglič do a Giro and after to decide whatever Tour or Vuelta double makes more sense. In that case and regardless of the outcome go all in on Tour in 2023. If Pogačar does Giro 2022 go all in on Tour 2022 and skip the Giro 2022.
2. Go all in regarding the Tour 2022. Especially if the route suits Roglič and if there will be some TTT involved.

We'll see.

 

[Carols]

I got halfway through this post and was already preparing to leave an angry response. Good job I read the rest of it.

But I do think you underrated his physical abilities slightly.

I didn't finish reading his diatribe about how Nibali wins on luck and is never the strongest. No rider wins 4 GTs including all 3 and 3 Monuments (2 different ones) on Luck. The ONLY others to do it are Gimondi, Merkx and Hinault. Guess all 4 were Lucky PPPPFFFFTTT.

Why is Nibali discussed on Primoz's thread anyway? There's a Nibali thread!

 

[tobydawq]

I maintain that Nibs has more near misses than lucky wins even if he's never been the dominant GT racer.

Good for you.

The thing is, nobody else has as many lucky wins as he has.

I could also point to a thousand races where Valverde could have won but didn't for various reasons. And most fans probably could do the same for their favourite rider.

 

[tobydawq]

I didn't finish reading his diatribe about how Nibali wins on luck and is never the strongest. No rider wins 4 GTs including all 3 and 3 Monuments (2 different ones) on Luck. The ONLY others to do it are Gimondi, Merkx and Hinault. Guess all 4 were Lucky PPPPFFFFTTT.

Why would it follow that because Nibali was lucky to win three of his four GTs that Gimondi, Merckx and Hinault all were too?

 

[Red Rick]

I didn't finish reading his diatribe about how Nibali wins on luck and is never the strongest. No rider wins 4 GTs including all 3 and 3 Monuments (2 different ones) on Luck. The ONLY others to do it are Gimondi, Merkx and Hinault. Guess all 4 were Lucky PPPPFFFFTTT.

Why is Nibali discussed on Primoz's thread anyway? There's a Nibali thread!

Nibali popping up in the Roglic thread is basically the new Valverde vs Nibali wars

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Nibali is the greatest rider in his generation.










In my opinion...

 

[Ilmaestro99]

His 2 Lombardia he was the strongest. Samremo was pure class.

 

[tobydawq]

His 2 Lombardia he was the strongest.

I won't dispute that.

Also, any rider who wins MSR is lucky, so he can't be faulted for that.

 

[Red Rick]

I wonder when Rogla will mention his own trophy cabinet to Nibali