Teams & Riders Everybody needs a little bit of Roglstomp in their lives

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It's just the timing of Pogacar really. Without Pog Roglic basically wins 3 GTs in 4 attempts (doesn't do 2020 Vuelta) with a crash out in the Tour. Also in hindsight going Giro/Tour in 2019 looks like the worst scheduling decision in the history of scheduling decisions.

I think it's fairly likely that Roglic will be the greatest ever GT rider without a TdF win by the end of his career.
Wtf are you talking about? Take those words back, please... He'll Roglstomp the next two Tours...you'll see
 
It's just the timing of Pogacar really. Without Pog Roglic basically wins 3 GTs in 4 attempts (doesn't do 2020 Vuelta) with a crash out in the Tour. Also in hindsight going Giro/Tour in 2019 looks like the worst scheduling decision in the history of scheduling decisions.

I think it's fairly likely that Roglic will be the greatest ever GT rider without a TdF win by the end of his career.
We will see. Pogacar is a phenom but so is Roglic. Their paths to greatness couldn't have been any different but they actually are very similar cyclists (in terms of strengths). I think Roglic still has a good chance to win one of the next 2-3 Tours. I don't think Pogacar will be winning them all: Roglic is a formidable rival and there are also other factors (i.e. crashes, form fluctuations, tactical situations etc) that could happen to Pog. Roglic can't be unlucky every year, can he?
 
I think from 2023 on Ineos will play a role in the Tour again, with Pidcock or Hayter or another of their young riders...
Also there might be other contenders then that we don't think of now. But 2022 should be Pogacar with Roglic with underdog chances and Vingegaard with real outsider chances.
 
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We will see. Pogacar is a phenom but so is Roglic. Their paths to greatness couldn't have been any different but they actually are very similar cyclists (in terms of strengths). I think Roglic still has a good chance to win one of the next 2-3 Tours. I don't think Pogacar will be winning them all: Roglic is a formidable rival and there are also other factors (i.e. crashes, form fluctuations, tactical situations etc) that could happen to Pog. Roglic can't be unlucky every year, can he?
I’m a strong believer in Bayes theorem which basically says that past outcomes do not affect the chance for future events. Meaning that if you take a look at his whole career sure - he would have to be very unlucky not to win at least one TDF. But if that happens it maybe won’t have to do so much with his future misfortune but rather than that it will be down to being unlucky in the past…

It a good thing his chances are better each year because the guy just keeps getting stronger…
 
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It's just the timing of Pogacar really. Without Pog Roglic basically wins 3 GTs in 4 attempts (doesn't do 2020 Vuelta) with a crash out in the Tour. Also in hindsight going Giro/Tour in 2019 looks like the worst scheduling decision in the history of scheduling decisions.

I think it's fairly likely that Roglic will be the greatest ever GT rider without a TdF win by the end of his career.
Top three very likely because if he's going to win a Giro he'll be on par with Rominger while being more impressive than him but I'd still put a lot above him Magni that won three Giros against Coppi and Bartali and in general in a period in which the Giro startlist was better than the Tour's one because of the ridiculous national teams rule in France that meant half of the teams were French regional teams whereas the top nations were forced to exclude big names. And Binda is unmatchable because he was basically the Merckx of late 20s/early 30s.
 
I’m a strong believer in Bayes theorem which basically says that past outcomes do not affect the chance for future events. Meaning that if you take a look at his whole career sure - he would have to be very unlucky not to win at least one TDF. But if that happens it maybe won’t have to do so much with his future misfortune but rather than that it will be down to being unlucky in the past…

It a good thing his chances are better each year because the guy just keeps getting stronger…
Obviously past outcomes don't effect the future (as far as random events are concerned) so there's no guarantee the Roglic's bad luck is over.
But let's put it this way: if Roglic has 30% chance to win the Tour in 2022 and the same in 2023 then he has 51% chance to win at least one of them (and even more if we consider next 3 years).
If I were to make a guess about 2022-2024 Tours I would give one to Roglic and two to Pogacar. Obviously a lot can chance (regarding contenders) but this is more or less what I mean regarding the Slovenians' future there.
 
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I think from 2023 on Ineos will play a role in the Tour again, with Pidcock or Hayter or another of their young riders...
Also there might be other contenders then that we don't think of now. But 2022 should be Pogacar with Roglic with underdog chances and Vingegaard with real outsider chances.
Hayter will probably be more like Alaphilippe. Bernal will be their only true hope for several more years.
 
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I’m a strong believer in Bayes theorem which basically says that past outcomes do not affect the chance for future events. Meaning that if you take a look at his whole career sure - he would have to be very unlucky not to win at least one TDF. But if that happens it maybe won’t have to do so much with his future misfortune but rather than that it will be down to being unlucky in the past…

It a good thing his chances are better each year because the guy just keeps getting stronger…
The theorem says your prior belief should be updated after new evidence.
 
Regarding Roglic vs Contador:




Ability wise they are more similar than I thought (ignoring some obvious elefants in the room).

But Roglic would have to collect a lot of trophies in the upcoming years to achieve a similar status. I think age will catch up to him before he can do that.
  1. Different eras make it relatively pointless to compare.
  2. Sampling is really weird.
  3. I don't think this graph would look too different for most top level climbers. Differences in peak performances will be smaller than differences in subpeak performances IMO.
 
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  1. Different eras make it relatively pointless to compare.
  2. Sampling is really weird.
  3. I don't think this graph would look too different for most top level climbers. Differences in peak performances will be smaller than differences in subpeak performances IMO.
Yeah but the different eras aspect makes every sort of comparison pointless. Agree that the sampling is quite random (and probably depends on the data available) but disagree that differences in peak performances are too small and the curves would look the same. This is (the very artificial) top 10 climbers based on peak performances (again quite questionable selection but that's beside the point) and the cuves of e.g. Quintana and Armstrong are very different:

Anyway, this belongs in the Power estimates thread in the clinic, not in the Roglic thread.
 
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But Roglic would have to collect a lot of trophies in the upcoming years to achieve a similar status. I think age will catch up to him before he can do that.
LOTS More..like 6 GTs, many more 1 week wins and Amazing performances over years he doesn't have. Contador was A Titan in his era. As much as I love Primoz he's no Contador. Sorry for him that Pog came along so quickly or he might have been.
 
These accounts are quite interesting (@cyclinggraphs and @naichaca who provides him the data an collects it in the web Vamhunters) and not, if his meassures are accurates the trendlines of all elite climbers are not quite the same, taking the best perfomances of the gc riders, it´s clear that peak Rogla and peak Pogi are clearly better and more consistent in putting high numbers than their current rivals (including Bernal) and very simillars to peak Froome and Contador (excluding 2009 version) but even a bit better in all kind of efforts specially Primoz despite Pogacar having more status as a climber nowadays.

So yes, the general level in climbings has raised in last years but not that freakingly much like everybody says and not in all kind of climbs compared to previous era, and of course are still far of w/kg of the 90s and early 2000s obviously for clinics reason, excepts maybe in puntual shorts efforts. By the way, Horner "in another era" has slovenians numbers in some USA and spanish perfomamces of his career, maybe even a bit better in certain climbs :sweatsmile:

In the other hand Nairo is maybe the better climber fs his generation and the current generation in pure w/kg capacity, but can not produce his higher crazy numbers with the regularity of the slovenians or his generationals rivals Froome or Contador, specially in grand tours.

So yeah, Primoz is clearly underrated as a climber, maybe for his unorthodox style.
 
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Got to admit, I'm far more interested in the upcoming debate on Bayes theorem than on whether Primoz is like Contador.
Yeah it's not going to be that much of a debate, really. @Netserk was right and I was actually talking about unconditional probability miscalling it Bayes theorem. Unconditional probability surely applies in "Roglič having more chance of winning because he already had bad luck in the past" case - but it's not Bayes theorem.
 
Yes, he is ahead of Contador in some areas, in others he is behind. I see absolutely nowhere he is exactly equal to Contador apart from the absolute number of Vuelta wins, nor does he resemble the Spaniard in appearance, racing style or characteristics. It seems like a rather bizarre statement...
That is why i said he needs around 3 more seasons on such level to top that. The claim from my side was never Roglič has already top Contador. The claim was Roglič is Contador of the current generation.

I don't think he's the Contador of this generation (every rider has his own style) but Primoz can at least match Contador by the end - he can get closer in terms of GTs and will beat Conta comfortably in one day races (and stages). Three more seasons in his prime are likely making him one of absolutely the best riders of the current century.
Your post doesn't make any sense. No, there is no need for every generation to have a Contador and a Froome in order to not be a bad generation.
Riders are simply different, the constellations are also different in different years.
You can't map 1:1. I can agree with that. But in the gist of it Roglič is Contador of the current generation. Pogačar is currently considered not only to be Froome of his generation, but Eddy. As Roglič has already beaten Pogačar on a GT, week long race, monument and some semi-classics. There is no special reason to consider Roglič any less than that. In addition Contador himself choose Rogličes wheel on that stage we all still remember. Hence the man himself choose Roglič as being the lineal Contador.
 
That is why i said he needs around 3 more seasons on such level to top that. The claim from my side was never Roglič has already top Contador. The claim was Roglič is Contador of the current generation.





You can't map 1:1. I can agree with that. But in the gist of it Roglič is Contador of the current generation. Pogačar is currently considered not only to be Froome of his generation, but Eddy. As Roglič has already beaten Pogačar on a GT, week long race, monument and some semi-classics. There is no special reason to consider Roglič any less than that. In addition Contador himself choose Rogličes wheel on that stage we all still remember. Hence the man himself choose Roglič as being the lineal Contador.
Lol I just don’t understand comparisons you make I guess. In addition to Contador being a completely different sort of rider than Roglic, I would also say that you can’t compare Froome to Pogacar. Pogacar is already a double monument winner and has shown himself to be a more varied winner imo. He has much more natural talent….imo.
 
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The claim was Roglič is Contador of the current generation.

You can't map 1:1. I can agree with that. But in the gist of it Roglič is Contador of the current generation. Pogačar is currently considered not only to be Froome of his generation, but Eddy. As Roglič has already beaten Pogačar on a GT, week long race, monument and some semi-classics. There is no special reason to consider Roglič any less than that. In addition Contador himself choose Rogličes wheel on that stage we all still remember. Hence the man himself choose Roglič as being the lineal Contador.
Let's be realistic. Primoz is no Contador and never will be. Just like Contador is no Eddy and never would have been.

Roglic is Roglic and he's building his own Very Worthy legacy that hopefully will stand the test of time. That should be enough for even the most ardent fan.
 
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