Teams & Riders Everybody needs a little bit of Roglstomp in their lives

[Rou]

Some posters like to cherry pick so I will do some cherry picking myself. Do you guys remember the Covadonga stage in the Vuelta 2021? Bernal and Roglic attacked with more than 50 kms to go and Roglic destroyed Bernal and the field. And it was a rainy miserable day. And it was not a fully healthy Roglic after his Tour crash.
So why wouldn't a fully healthy Roglic be able to stay with Pogacar or very close to him on the Grand Bornard stage?
Roglic in 2021 was at a higher level than Vingegaard and if he stayed upright it would have been a very close battle with Pogacar in the Tour.

 

[Red Rick]

Some posters like to cherry pick so I will do some cherry picking myself. Do you guys remember the Covadonga stage in the Vuelta 2021? Bernal and Roglic attacked with more than 50 kms to go and Roglic destroyed Bernal and the field. And it was a rainy miserable day. And it was not a fully healthy Roglic after his Tour crash.
So why wouldn't a fully healthy Roglic be able to stay with Pogacar or very close to him on the Grand Bornard stage?
Roglic in 2021 was at a higher level than Vingegaard and if he stayed upright it would have been a very close battle with Pogacar in the Tour.

Because while it rained, it wasn't particularly cold, which was the case on Le Grand Bornand and especially Tignes IIRC. And because Roglic has a clear pattern of weakening performance in cold, wet weather while Pogacar has a long history of destroying everyone in that weather.

If we want to run the 2021 Tour and give it perfect sunny weather for 3 weeks and Rog doesn't crash, then sure I'll sign the contract in my own blood, but that's not even the hypothetical we were talking about.

 

[Rou]

Because while it rained, it wasn't particularly cold, which was the case on Le Grand Bornand and especially Tignes IIRC. And because Roglic has a clear pattern of weakening performance in cold, wet weather while Pogacar has a long history of destroying everyone in that weather.

If we want to run the 2021 Tour and give it perfect sunny weather for 3 weeks and Rog doesn't crash, then sure I'll sign the contract in my own blood, but that's not even the hypothetical we were talking about.

Yes, it was colder. But the GC group lost 3:20 to Pogacar and group 2 syndrome was a part of that. I am convinced Roglic could have limited his loss to 1:30 and the Tour would have been completely different.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Yes it was hard in the cold Alps, but you also have to admit that everyone immediately gave up, apart from Carapaz who blew up. Vingegaard had crashed that stage too. Damage should be less, and then time could realistically be taken back on the Ventoux - with selfish Wout van Aert waiting this time, causing a war between Belgium and a Dutch supermarket chain, and in the 2nd ITT.

If Roglic is closer than 5 mins to Pogacar, Pog most likely isn’t just setting his own tempo and to see if Roglic gets caught back on the descent. Vingegaard was 5.5 mins behind Pogacar with a downhill, no reason to overextend oneself. Whether trying to respond to Roglic then causes a future blow up is another question.

 

[Oldman]

Another close finish. Mads/Lidl are doing exactly what they want. And what Bora wants/needs them to do. Vacek is a baller, man.

 

[Cycling111]

I´ve the feeling Ayuso isn't very well. He needs to make the most of Friday and Sunday.

Ayuso can improve in the second and third weeks.
He at least needs to test him, not regret it later.

 

[Red Rick]

I think he quite clearly wanted to sprint today but I swear if he's at home and his wife is looking for him she first checks if Primoz didn't get stuck in the washing machine again

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

I just reviewed the 2019 Giro stage results on PCS. I’d remembered it as Roglic and Nibali letting Carapaz up the road on a stage, but Roglic appears to have been dropped like a hot rock the entire last week or so, 4 or 5 stages. I don’t think that has a ton of relevance for this year personally but we’ll see.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

I just reviewed the 2019 Giro stage results on PCS. I’d remembered it as Roglic and Nibali letting Carapaz up the road on a stage, but Roglic appears to have been dropped like a hot rock the entire last week or so, 4 or 5 stages. I don’t think that has a ton of relevance for this year personally but we’ll see.

The issue in 2019 was that Nibali wasn‘t that good and was looking at Roglič and Roglič just didn‘t have it and then crashed on Stage 15

 

[Ilmaestro99]

I just reviewed the 2019 Giro stage results on PCS. I’d remembered it as Roglic and Nibali letting Carapaz up the road on a stage, but Roglic appears to have been dropped like a hot rock the entire last week or so, 4 or 5 stages. I don’t think that has a ton of relevance for this year personally but we’ll see.

There were 3 time trials in that giro which is why he podoiumed. Landa was better in the mountains. Roglic was losing time from stage 13 onwards on every hard stage> He overturned Landa in the final TT.

It's why I don't think he would beat bernal in the 2019 tour

Roglic improved a lot between that giro and the following Vuelta, his first gt win

To be fair to him in that giro, Jumbo sent a group of random Dutch teenagers to support him. Was far from the visma of tour 2020

 

[Red Rick]

There were 3 time trials in that giro which is why he podoiumed. Landa was better in the mountains. Roglic was losing time from stage 13 onwards on every hard stage> He overturned Landa in the final TT.

It's why I don't think he would beat bernal in the 2019 tour

Roglic improved a lot between that giro and the following Vuelta, his first gt win

To be fair to him in that giro, Jumbo sent a group of random Dutch teenagers to support him. Was far from the visma of tour 2020

He didn't improve so much as he completely messed up his peak timing and got sick during the Giro.

He absolutely flying in Romandie and it was basically agreed by everyone even racing Romandie there was a *** idea. There's a pretty big reason nobody who goes for GC in the Giro races Romandie anymore. Only Caruso did it but he hadn't raced since Sanremo.

 

[Cycling111]

There were 3 time trials in that giro which is why he podoiumed. Landa was better in the mountains. Roglic was losing time from stage 13 onwards on every hard stage> He overturned Landa in the final TT.

It's why I don't think he would beat bernal in the 2019 tour

Roglic improved a lot between that giro and the following Vuelta, his first gt win

To be fair to him in that giro, Jumbo sent a group of random Dutch teenagers to support him. Was far from the visma of tour 2020

But Roglic lost the Tour with the best team, by far.

Look at the team Jumbo took to TDF. Look at the team for Pogacar. Formolo was one of the few good ones, DNF at stage 8.
The difference between the two teams was grotesque.

To be fair, Pogacar's Tour should be valued more for because he won it alone. As if winning it at that age, being a rookie in the Tour, weren't enough. Instead, the idea here is that Roglic didn't win the Tour because he didn't want to, and that in 2021, he would've beaten Pogacar who was far superior to the 2020 and had a decent team.

But instead of being fair to Pogacar with that argument (team), they put an asterisk on the 2020 and even on the Tour 2021.
Pogacar improved his level more from 2020 to 2021 than Roglic did from 2020 to 2021, but he would've beaten him in the Tour 2021 when he couldn't in 2020 with all the circumstances in his favor: team, age, experience, peak.

 

[Red Rick]

Instead, the idea here is that Roglic didn't win the Tour because he didn't want to, and that in 2021, he would've beaten Pogacar who was far superior to the 2020 and had a decent team.

Nobody is saying the latter definitively, and the former is about as pure a strawman I have read on this forum.

 

[RJH]

I´ve the feeling Ayuso isn't very well. He needs to make the most of Friday and Sunday.

Ayuso can improve in the second and third weeks.
He at least needs to test him, not regret it later.

100% agree…

Rog should attack Ayuso so hard so Ayuso will stand at the side of the road and cry.

 

[Cycling111]

100% agree…

Rog should attack Ayuso so hard so Ayuso will stand at the side of the road and cry.

He has to try it. Even if the stage isn't so hard that anyone loses the Giro. There are three possible scenarios.

1. Ayuso is in bad shape and loses a lot of time.

2. Ayuso isn't doing very well, not losing much time, but Yates and/or Del Toro are stronger. Problems in the UAE, good for Roglic. Plus, Roglic will clear up the doubt about whether Del Toro can be a rival for GC.

3. There are no differences. I doubt Roglic will lose time.

I think the most likely scenario is 2. He may not gain time, but he could create a problem in UAE because right now Del Toro seems stronger than Ayuso.
In any case, he has to try it and not be left with doubts.

Today, the UAE stopped because Ayuso wasn't well.
I posted the image in the stage thread.

 

[SHAD0W93]

100% agree…

Rog should attack Ayuso so hard so Ayuso will stand at the side of the road and cry.

Best case scenario is a repeat of the 2021 Vuelta stage 20 with Adam in his same role and position as before then Ayuso in the Bernal/MAL role causing Ayuso to DNF.

 

[zlev11]

i dont think Roglic would've won the 2019 Tour because apparently the reason he got sick at the Giro was because he didn't have his nutrition dialed in for a 3 week race yet. he didn't 'perfect' it until that Vuelta.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Roglic will kill everyone on Friday. That climb is perfect for a stomp however I don't know how people think Ayuso is weak right now. We didn't see anything from GC riders on climbs.

 

[CyclistAbi]

At Giro 2019 two things went against Rogla, a crash deep into the race and mostly the effects of stomach issues. Nibali thought Rogla was bluffing and that left the door open to Carapaz. As for Tour editions in between 2021 and 2024, *** that, not worth spending energy on that. Better to focus on Tour 2025 and lets rather spend energy over there, after Giro.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Just as winning GC, it would be good if the team would leave the strongest impression, or better a mark, at this Giro edition, to hint there is a new sheriff in town. Lets see if the team is there yet, glimpse of that hopefully on Friday, then obviously week three, on where some other teams will (try to) start pressing.

 

[Berniece]

Roglic will kill everyone on Friday. That climb is perfect for a stomp however I don't know how people think Ayuso is weak right now. We didn't see anything from GC riders on climbs.

He was a bit disappointing in the ITT

 

[Filippo_3467]

He has to try it. Even if the stage isn't so hard that anyone loses the Giro. There are three possible scenarios.

1. Ayuso is in bad shape and loses a lot of time.

2. Ayuso isn't doing very well, not losing much time, but Yates and/or Del Toro are stronger. Problems in the UAE, good for Roglic. Plus, Roglic will clear up the doubt about whether Del Toro can be a rival for GC.

3. There are no differences. I doubt Roglic will lose time.

I think the most likely scenario is 2. He may not gain time, but he could create a problem in UAE because right now Del Toro seems stronger than Ayuso.
In any case, he has to try it and not be left with doubts.

Today, the UAE stopped because Ayuso wasn't well.
I posted the image in the stage thread.

Would be pretty out of character for Red Bull (formerly Bora tacticts) and Roglic to "go for the kill" and make the stage super hard to attack the last climb from the bottom. The more realistic scenario is a Roglstomp in the last 1,5 ks launched by Pelizarri after doing almost nothing all day and Martinez/Hindley trying to hang on in the wheels behind without really taking a pull all day.

If Ayuso has big problems he maybe looses 30 sec or 10 to 15 if Primoz gets separation with a really late attack. All that behind a big breakaway who takes the boni. The much bigger chance to really take a struggling leader out of the GC is anyways stage 8 or 9. If they senese weakness in Ayuso or Yates (or the other way around in Roglic). You pace the climb really hard down to your last two domestiques.

I think all teams and leaders try to keep their powder try for stage 9. for me that stage is underrated because this time the gravel is very backloaded in the stage (like in the montalcino stage and not like in most cobble stages in the Tour) and it is more punchy gravel mountains which helps in splitting the race. The gapsin the Montalcino stage were big and this time they could be even larger. Remco lost over two minutes to Bernal. There are not that many mountain stages in that Giro that can do that much damage. Also all teams will see this stage as the big weakness of Roglic and there chance to hirt him. So UAE, Ineos and Lidl will for sure try to escalate the race and distance Roglic for Ciccone, Bernal and Ayuso/Yates. I think that is one reaso why Bora will not expand one bit too much of energy.

For me that could be the stage of the Giro and a goodie after the boring first week.

 

[Red Rick]

First priority is honestly making sure no crazy break with especially UAE contenders gets up the road too hard. No Yates/Ayuso/Del Toro in the break. McNutters is fine, he's like 29, never done a top 10 and he had like 700 race days going into Giro.

Then, if the stage is in play I'd expect him to be a big more conservative. No real need to pace the easy section that hard cause it probably takes like 7W/kg to make people sit in the group at 6W/kg there, so you better save the manpower for the steep section.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

I cannot believe he hasn’t crashed yet, I’d say his luck is turning but losing Jai Hindley was still a blow. Sucks for Jai, too. Tough couple of years for him.

 

[Peyroteo94]

I cannot believe he hasn’t crashed yet, I’d say his luck is turning but losing Jai Hindley was still a blow. Sucks for Jai, too. Tough couple of years for him.

Wait until the gravel stage. I fear for Roglic there.