When he says he's been working hard these past few weeks and hasn't been on vacation, I always interpret it as meaning the training camp has gone well and the numbers are looking good (whether that's enough to win these days is another matter), similar to what he said before last year's Volta a Catalunya. In the Algarve, both he and his coach made it clear he wasn't in top form.
In 2024, he struggled due to the cold and rain at Paris-Nice (according to some rivals, he looked shivering in several stages), but based on his team's previous comments, his response to Remco on the climb of the first stage, and his performance in the team time trial, he was indeed in good shape, but everything went wrong.
In 2023, he was coming back from altitude training but also from shoulder surgery, so he was a bit off his game, but he was ready to try and win.
My feeling is that he'll be stronger in his second race, as usual, but he's arrived here prepared enough to believe he can be in contention with Del Toro and the others. If he doesn't even make the podium, or at least the top five, it won't be a good or calculated result.
Regarding today's time trial, it's one of the ITT that Primož usually struggles with, but I feel he has a better setup now than in 2023.