His form looks fine I guess but for what? He’s moving through his spring targets pretty fast, and soon he’ll be down to just the Vuelta as a target. Fine I guess if you consider that his only real target but not long ago he farmed these stage races.
You misunderstand me. My point is not to come here to brag that I was right, quite the opposite, I am trying to understand and I am trying to get the forum's view on this like it happened the last time I had a question about whether his decline was happening or not (this was back when he changed teams) and I was provided with interviews and a plausible explanation that I wouldn't have found on my own.
I've been a lurker for years, I think there are quite a few sensible posters here but lately I've been reading takes that are as baffling as my own confusion about what's going on with Roglic all of a sudden. It seems he is doing better than ever according to some posters when it's clear that he has become a complete different rider and is struggling mightily. And I wanted to debate that situations with examples to get a counter argument, if there is one.
Believe, I am the first that wishes he could continue many more years.
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- Feb 20, 2012
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He's lucky that Decathlon isn't going to be pragmatic and won't send Seixas to the Vuelta like most of the young riders who are making their GT debut in the Vuelta.
Roglic is at a point where he wouldn't beat emergent riders. Lipowitz is proving more and more every day that he's already surpassed him. But the fact that the World Championships are in Canada this year means neither of the best GC riders will be at the Vuelta.
Roglic is still superior to the B-level riders in the peloton. The only risk would be if someone like Ayuso or Del Toro takes that step forward in three weeks, and they won't be there. Vingegaard because of the Giro, and Pogacar because of the World Championships won´t be at the Vuelta either .
Almeida could be a tough rival without the Tour, but Almeida isn't a Grand Tour winner; he has to be in top form and have everything go perfectly. There have been many Almeida who, for various reasons, haven't achieved it. I would never bet on him; even if his main rival at the Vuelta were Felix Gall.
Roglic is at a point where he wouldn't beat emergent riders. Lipowitz is proving more and more every day that he's already surpassed him. But the fact that the World Championships are in Canada this year means neither of the best GC riders will be at the Vuelta.
Roglic is still superior to the B-level riders in the peloton. The only risk would be if someone like Ayuso or Del Toro takes that step forward in three weeks, and they won't be there. Vingegaard because of the Giro, and Pogacar because of the World Championships won´t be at the Vuelta either .
Almeida could be a tough rival without the Tour, but Almeida isn't a Grand Tour winner; he has to be in top form and have everything go perfectly. There have been many Almeida who, for various reasons, haven't achieved it. I would never bet on him; even if his main rival at the Vuelta were Felix Gall.
- Jul 16, 2015
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The Vuelta will be the benchmark. He's close right now but still gets dropped by the best in any given race, so he's just a slight level below the top. It's a frustrating level tbh because he's good enough to follow the moves at the front but then invariably loses against whomever is top in the race he's in (Del Toro or Pidcock a few weeks ago, Seixas obviously and now Lipowitz as well).
Now the people saying he's now late career equivalent of Sagan/Froome are clearly out of their minds. I'd say Nibali would be a more apt comparison, or Contador. Aka close, but not close enough.
Now the people saying he's now late career equivalent of Sagan/Froome are clearly out of their minds. I'd say Nibali would be a more apt comparison, or Contador. Aka close, but not close enough.
- Sep 12, 2022
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Froome comparison is ridiculous. After his fall, and joining IPT he was never at the level Roglic was now compared to the rest of peloton
I’ve been saying for a few years that his arc is very similar to Contador’s, only he is a bit older than Contador at a given point. Both can/could win but not beat the best, both could put up strong unipuerto / MTT performances, both prone to crashes. Nibali at a similar spot in his curve won a Giro and a Monument, Contador didn’t win a GT but had his epic Angliru win (even if the time was not impressive). A big Vuelta win would be fantastic.
I'm sorry this is the argument that bothers me the most. I've seen a few people here all but claiming that he is just doing these spring races to shake the cobwebs and that he will be on top shape when it matters, but does that make sense? He was never a Geraint Thomas bullshitting his way through training races to peak hard for his GT of choice, nor would it make sense to take that risk being in a team where a slightly subpar performance pushes you down the leadership ladder Showgirls-style.
He was targeting Itzulia as he was the sole leader for the first and maybe only time this season, are we thinking that he just decided to lower his level on purpose to protest against the team lumping him with a co-leader last minute? Why would he target a race in April while purposely being far from his top shape because that will be needed in September and he can only peak once now all of a sudden.
Make it make sense, please, and I'm dead serious.
- Mar 15, 2022
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I definitely hoped for more at the beginning of the season for Rogla. He's better than in Tirreno, so that's good news. I think he's slowly building his form, with a planned peak of form at La Vuelta. You can call that hopium, but this old frog surprised us so many times already...
- Feb 20, 2012
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He's racing to be good, not racing to peak in March/April.
If there's one thing consistent about aging GC riders it's that they often had to start limiting their spring campaign to still hit the best shape for the target races. Contador never did, and I think that's a big reason why he flamed out so much in 2016-2017.
We meme certain riders for being too good in the spring and then being crap in the TdF. At the same time, there's a lot of GT riders that do comparatively little in the shorter stage races.
Even Evenepoel is just *** around as a GC rider in the spring.
As for Roglic, it's very well documented he wasn't at his best for the 2025 Tour, and he still basically did best-of-the-rest performances on some of the stages that suited him. It's very hard for me to believe he'd fall below that level in a race that suits him much better and coming in with a good preperation.
He was clearly burnt out last season, so why should he be aiming to peak in the spring right now. Especially when the rumor is that skipping the Giro was his own decision.
You cant compare him to Contador. Roglic almost never attacks. He is riding very passive, like Valverde but without the punch and the sprint.
But i think Valverde had his best season with the age of 36/37 in 2017.
Sadly Roglic has lost his explosive power.
- Jul 16, 2015
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It totally depends on expectations. Personally I had very little. He's been in this game a long time now and there's a new generation that's arrived which makes the Pog-Evenepoel-Vinge generation seem old, so you can imagine how Rog fits in (he's basically pretty much old enough to be Paul Seixas' father).
The main reason I'm saying wait for the Vuelta is beyond the obvious fact it's his seasonal objective, it's literally the time of the year where he always traditionally peaked anyway (and no surprise to me his best finish in the Tour was when it was held in September for covid reasons).
The main thing that's concerning? The punch or lack thereof. To me that says there's perhaps something physical that's changed since early 2025.
- Feb 20, 2012
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Roglic has always been much less explosive when on the limit, to the point that he doesn't even like to climb with many tempo changes when on the limit, and it's always been a bit dependent on being fresh enough at the end of a climb.
He looked pretty jumpy at the end of stage 2 once he finally got unboxed.
- Jul 16, 2015
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It could always be worse as well, i.e. he could be at Alaphilippe's level. Now that's a big drop-off. It's why I don't get the doomsayers. Is he great? Nah not really. But he's not washed either.
The naysayers are comparing him to his prime (2020-2024) and identifying that he is not performing at the level any longer; comparing him to Alaphilippe is a completely different thing that of course looks better.
I can get behind the argument about a slow approach to the season because I want to believe it. I don't really have much hope that it will get better, but also it's the first time he hasn't been competitive (for his standards) before a GT so we don't have data to compare.
But if the team knows this, why the less than ideal race selection? He's doing races where he would need his sadly gone explosiveness, are they that dense or are they setting him up for failure so he can accept the superdomestique role as they have heavily hinted? I get that Remco gets to choose, then Lipo, and then maaaaybe him, but if he's truly in a deliberate slow progression to a mega peak, he won't mind doing smaller races and rack up easy wins instead of the prestigious ones where he gets steamrolled by all the young coals and gets bad press and daily stories about his washed status? It just doesn't make any sense to me that the team would chose him as a leader for Itzulia when it's a hard explosive race when they have Martínez and Van Gils (talking about the winter race program design, it's obvious that they have to improvise now with so many injured), that they think he can be competitive in Romandie if his climbing always needs a bit more work and it's weaker at the start of a season/stage race.
And please do explain why you think his level here is better than at Tirreno, where it was clear that he was working for Pellizzari once it was established that the Italian was at the same level or slightly better than him, and that they couldn't get 2 guys in the podium since competition was also better. Still, there he was just a step down from the elite, if he wasn't working for his teammate he would've been closer to the other two imo. Now here in Itzulia he is worse than Romo while trying to defend a podium spot and doing less work for a teammate, because it's not needed since that teammate is clearly better.
Again, make it make sense. It's all very contradictory
But if the team knows this, why the less than ideal race selection? He's doing races where he would need his sadly gone explosiveness, are they that dense or are they setting him up for failure so he can accept the superdomestique role as they have heavily hinted? I get that Remco gets to choose, then Lipo, and then maaaaybe him, but if he's truly in a deliberate slow progression to a mega peak, he won't mind doing smaller races and rack up easy wins instead of the prestigious ones where he gets steamrolled by all the young coals and gets bad press and daily stories about his washed status? It just doesn't make any sense to me that the team would chose him as a leader for Itzulia when it's a hard explosive race when they have Martínez and Van Gils (talking about the winter race program design, it's obvious that they have to improvise now with so many injured), that they think he can be competitive in Romandie if his climbing always needs a bit more work and it's weaker at the start of a season/stage race.
And please do explain why you think his level here is better than at Tirreno, where it was clear that he was working for Pellizzari once it was established that the Italian was at the same level or slightly better than him, and that they couldn't get 2 guys in the podium since competition was also better. Still, there he was just a step down from the elite, if he wasn't working for his teammate he would've been closer to the other two imo. Now here in Itzulia he is worse than Romo while trying to defend a podium spot and doing less work for a teammate, because it's not needed since that teammate is clearly better.
Again, make it make sense. It's all very contradictory
Roglic's victory in the Vuelta will definitely depend on the startlist and long attacks.
His rivals are already realizing that if Roglic if the race requires long efforts, he won't be able to survive in a race with long-range attacks. But who will do that in the Vuelta? Enric Mas? Mas is able to take him on a sprint uphill.
Perhaps Jarno Widar, if he defeated Sexas in two mountain stages of the Avenir, might win the Vuelta
.
Roglic was slightly better in Tirreno because the attacks were short, but the Vuelta route makes it difficult, rivals should attack him.
His rivals are already realizing that if Roglic if the race requires long efforts, he won't be able to survive in a race with long-range attacks. But who will do that in the Vuelta? Enric Mas? Mas is able to take him on a sprint uphill.
Perhaps Jarno Widar, if he defeated Sexas in two mountain stages of the Avenir, might win the Vuelta
.Roglic was slightly better in Tirreno because the attacks were short, but the Vuelta route makes it difficult, rivals should attack him.
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