Evidence vs proof

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Sep 29, 2012
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As I mentioned previously, precedence is an ideal source for evidence.

And has just been demonstrated, Lance Armstrong's USPS team and the way it did things is trotted out by Sky disbelievers as evidence that something dodgy is going on.

And in reply, pro-Sky posters rightly point out the flaws in this evidence, namely that there were murmurs and rumours floating around constantly. You can even go further, saying, "there are no rumours or mumurs" and suggest this is evidence against the claim Sky are doping.

For me, the problem with the "no rumours or murmurs" evidence is the fact that despite looking like UK Postal, Sky are, as indicated above, not only very new, but if you lineup their winning time, it has only been since 2012 when they were in the spot light for winning the Lance race.

So instead of rumours and murmurs, we have the most ridiculous drop in performance ever seen by a rider in Bradley Wiggins.

Further, there have been no scenarios in the Sky timeline providing the same impetus for revelations.

To clarify:
+ Lance dropped the doping products bombshell because he was lying in a hospital bed potentially dying from cancer, trying to help the doctor work out what was wrong to save his life
vs
- neither Wiggins nor Froome have been in a similarly life threatening situation

+ testers knew about EPO, but were still working on the test. handy when it was finaly ready that they had old samples available.
vs
- as far as we know there may be new drugs on the market, but the testers certainly don't seem to know about them, and hence do not appear to be developing tests for them. If anything, we're still going around the mulberry bush making the current tests for old drugs more sensitive.

+ it was a team doping program, so at all times there was a small cadre of riders privy to the doping practices of each other
vs
- I really do not think there is any team doping these days, but more riders doing their own thing (see below), so noone is going to know what the other guy is doing.

+ Landis got royally shafted and then some, leaving him with nothing to lose if he went public.
vs
- Rogers is closest to this example, but at a guess he was paid out handsomely and let go to another team. Sure he went positive later, but he's not getting shafted and losing everything like Landis did.

For my money, it's no wonder there is none of the evidence Lance had, cropping up in the Sky narrative. But that's not because it's not there, but more because it has had no opportunity to get out into the open. Yet.

For a more relevant precedent of a rider doping and getting caught, I'd like to discuss someone who doped non-stop for 7 years and only got caught because he was trying to generate a good TdF result, probably for a fat contract. Again, he was using a drug that was known, and the test was being developed, and they did not catch him for months after the test, through retroactive testing.

IMO, Bernard Kohl is a better example if you want to point to someone and say: this guy doped, and got caught. True.

But!

Where was the suspicion surrounding him? His performance at that 2008 Tour was certainly suspicious, ridiculously so IMO, but otherwise, there was nothing.

And he doped for 7 years before getting caught.

Now show me all the Austrian influence in the cycling hierarchy of the day.
 
May 27, 2012
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BYOP88 said:
So Armstrong got 4th in the 1998 Vuelta kicked *** at the next 7 TdF's then an ex-team mate confessed in 2006. So using the sky time line we still have 4 years before a team mate spills the beans.

Bingo!!!!!
 
May 27, 2012
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Spencer the Half Wit said:
One failed test that was covered up.

Also back then, the internet was in its infancy, no twitter and an (even more) compliant mainstream media. IMO it's much harder now to cover things up in general than it was back then. If there is organised team doping then it will come out sooner rather than later, riders doping off their own back can still get away with it, if they are careful.

Paging Mr. Walsh, paging Mr. Walsh...:rolleyes:
 
Sep 29, 2012
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TailWindHome said:
Worth pointing out that there's a huge gap between being 'pro sky' and not being convinced by the strength of the evidence against them?

Yes I see that claim a lot.

But for me, if people were truly just "unconvinced", I believe they would offer information / opinion / evidence for both sides. Or at least concede that XYZ does indeed look dodgy. The only evidence that receives that treatment is hiring Leinders, but is invariably followed immediately by, "but they fired him!"

The people who are unconvinced spend their entire Clinic posting time arguing, disagreeing, insulting and worse (calling others haters / anti-British, etc) against any and all posts provided as evidence of Sky riders doping, or even just discussion about Sky or their riders. Or worse, offering counter evidence, often too easily debunked.

You may be correct, but it's very difficult to believe given the above.
 
May 27, 2012
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TailWindHome said:
Worth pointing out that there's a huge gap between being 'pro sky' and not being convinced by the strength of the evidence against them?

Plausible deniability...look it up.

Anyway, in theory, yes, in relation to this forum...no...

To quote Mr. Armstrong, "SSDD."
 
Jul 6, 2010
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I am loving this thread!

Cheers to Dear Wiggo for having the patience and cool head to keep it up, nice work!

Now, all we have to do is find a find a Robespierre equivalent of "Godwin's Law" and call it a day...
 
JMBeaushrimp said:
I am loving this thread!

Cheers to Dear Wiggo for having the patience and cool head to keep it up, nice work!

Now, all we have to do is find a find a Robespierre equivalent of "Godwin's Law" and call it a day...

Hey! I'm a reasonable guy, therefore any doubts I have are reasonable...
:D
 
Sep 29, 2012
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MarkvW said:
Hey! I'm a reasonable guy, therefore any doubts I have are reasonable...
:D

Except in the context where it applies, that reasonable doubt standard applies only to the 12 people on the jury.

There may be a million more people in the public arena who still have reasonable doubts, but in the court case, it's up to those 12 to arrive at their verdict using that standard.

So if we lined up the clinic 12, and they were all convinced...

...

...
 
Jul 6, 2010
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Dear Wiggo said:
Except in the context where it applies, that reasonable doubt standard applies only to the 12 people on the jury.

There may be a million more people in the public arena who still have reasonable doubts, but in the court case, it's up to those 12 to arrive at their verdict using that standard.

So if we lined up the clinic 12, and they were all convinced...

...

...

If considered a 'jury of peers', I'm pretty sure the verdict is clear.

As it should be to anyone who has any history in following cycling, FFS!
 

martinvickers

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Oct 15, 2012
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Dear Wiggo said:
Except in the context where it applies, that reasonable doubt standard applies only to the 12 people on the jury.

There may be a million more people in the public arena who still have reasonable doubts, but in the court case, it's up to those 12 to arrive at their verdict using that standard.

So if we lined up the clinic 12, and they were all convinced...

...

...

While a juror does not need any special skills or experience, they must:

be fair
be impartial
be willing to listen
keep an open mind


Of course, in Ireland we used to have preemptory challenge, so you'd never get in. Ah, those were the days...
 
Dear Wiggo said:
+ testers knew about EPO, but were still working on the test. handy when it was finaly ready that they had old samples available.
vs
- as far as we know there may be new drugs on the market, but the testers certainly don't seem to know about them, and hence do not appear to be developing tests for them. If anything, we're still going around the mulberry bush making the current tests for old drugs more sensitive.

I think WADA and NADOs are probably more abreast of whats going on than people realise.

If nothing else they can browse the bodybuilding forums like anyone else, information flow that helps the dopers also helps the anti-dopers.

GW(whatever the number is) shows that, a test rapidly appeared for a substance seemingly "no-one" had heard of.
 
May 26, 2010
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martinvickers said:
www.nidirect.gov.uk



Of course, in Northern Ireland we used to have preemptory challenge, so you'd never get in. Ah, those were the days...

Lets keep it factual. Northern Ireland is part of the UK.
 
Feb 22, 2014
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Benotti69 said:
Lets keep it factual. Northern Ireland is part of the UK.

As is, at the time of writing, Scotland. Scotland has an entirely different legal system; including verdicts not available elsewhere in the UK.

What facts did you have in mind?
 

martinvickers

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Oct 15, 2012
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Benotti69 said:
Lets keep it factual. Northern Ireland is part of the UK.

Rights of preemptory challenge were available in both Irish jurisdictions until very recently, long after they had been removed in England and Wales.

So yes, let's keep it factual. And remember, it is better to be silent and thought an idiot, than to speak and confirm it.
 
Sep 29, 2012
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I would say that "proof" is the most widely misunderstood concept in all of science. It has a technical definition (a logical demonstration that certain conclusions follow from certain assumptions) that is strongly at odds with how it is used in casual conversation, which is closer to simply "strong evidence for something." There is a mismatch between how scientists talk and what people hear because scientists tend to have the stronger definition in mind. And by that definition, science never proves anything! So when we are asked "What is your proof that we evolved from other species?" or "Can you really prove that climate change is caused by human activity?" we tend to hem and haw rather than simply saying "Of course we can." The fact that science never really proves anything, but simply creates more and more reliable and comprehensive theories of the world that nevertheless are always subject to update and improvement, is one of the key aspects of why science is so successful.

http://io9.com/10-scientific-ideas-...utm_source=io9_facebook&utm_medium=socialflow
 
Catwhoorg said:
I think WADA and NADOs are probably more abreast of whats going on than people realise.

If nothing else they can browse the bodybuilding forums like anyone else, information flow that helps the dopers also helps the anti-dopers.

GW(whatever the number is) shows that, a test rapidly appeared for a substance seemingly "no-one" had heard of.

GW1516 made it to phase II clinical trials. The test would have already existed, WADA just needed to ask Glaxo. It may even have been published. That's very different to them having to develop their own tests.