First American to win Paris Roubaix

[Sciatic]

if not Hinacpie lol then Lamperti

They haven’t shown any classics-riding chops yet the way, for instance, Powless and Jorgenson have, so why would you pick those two over the others to win Roubaix? Or is it the point in the thread where folks are just throwing out names of riders they like? ( which is fine of course, but a little confusing).

 

[proffate]

They haven’t shown any classics-riding chops yet the way, for instance, Powless and Jorgenson have, so why would you pick those two over the others to win Roubaix? Or is it the point in the thread where folks are just throwing out names of riders they like? ( which is fine of course, but a little confusing).

I think it's reasonable to say that we've seen Powless and Jorgenson closer to their respective peaks, i.e. have less room for growth. And if you don't think their peaks are good enough to win PR outside of some major luck, or you think they're more suited to hillier courses, then you have to look to younger riders such as Lamperti. (Who has, by the way, shown he can handle tough, technical races and unpaved parcours, just at a lower level than the WT.)

I have to say it was a brain fart on my part not to include Riley Sheehan. Colby Simmons is a stretch to be on this list at this point, although probably will be at least decent. I don't know if we have enough information about Enzo Hincapie aside from his lineage to make any kind of guess at his ultimate ceiling.

 

[proffate]

Good point, why isn't Enzo Hincapie on the list?

16 and never raced outside the US

 

[Sciatic]

I think it's reasonable to say that we've seen Powless and Jorgenson closer to their respective peaks, i.e. have less room for growth. And if you don't think their peaks are good enough to win PR outside of some major luck, or you think they're more suited to hillier courses, then you have to look to younger riders such as Lamperti. (Who has, by the way, shown he can handle tough, technical races and unpaved parcours, just at a lower level than the WT.)

I have to say it was a brain fart on my part not to include Riley Sheehan. Colby Simmons is a stretch to be on this list at this point, although probably will be at least decent. I don't know if we have enough information about Enzo Hincapie aside from his lineage to make any kind of guess at his ultimate ceiling.

Thanks for the good explanation, I see what you’re saying.

My internal measure of “who is most likely to win” (which is different than “who has the tools to win”) is to decide as if I was forced to bet a meaningful amount of money on my choice. I would feel better with my money on Powless or Jorgensen (even though they’re better on hilly courses), who have finished 4th and 5th at de Ronde over folks who we haven’t seen in cobbled classics (or in the pro peloton at all).

Happy to be wrong though

 

[Unchained]

Confusing what the delineation was for Mangus Sheffield to suddenly become an elite bike racer..

 

[Potomac]

Confusing what the delineation was for Mangus Sheffield to suddenly become an elite bike racer..

Magnus by name, Magnus by nature.

 

[masking_agent]

unfortunately I do not see it in my lifetime unless we see another U.S. team built like U.S. postal, including a new moto man

 

[proffate]

Another year passes without an American on the top step. At this rate the young riders like AJ August have the best shot as their career has the least overlap with MVDP. Speaking of AJ, you gotta feel for him that he finished just OTL given that it was both the fastest finish, and as a result also the smallest time limit in history.

 

[DNP-Old]

Another year passes without an American on the top step. At this rate the young riders like AJ August have the best shot as their career has the least overlap with MVDP. Speaking of AJ, you gotta feel for him that he finished just OTL given that it was both the fastest finish, and as a result also the smallest time limit in history.

AJ has no shot to win Roubaix regardless of competition, lol. This was in all likelihood his only appearance ever.

 

[perico]

I don’t care if a rider is from the States anymore, but I wouldn’t write Quinn Simmons off when it comes to this type of race. He is a proven winner on most terrains and had success on cobbles in his amateur days.

The guy is only 22 years old and still plenty of room to develop.

 

[Volderke]

Why wasn't Simmons in any of the cobbled classics? Injured? Sick? Not race-ready?
He's on the AGR startlist, which seems a bit too much hills for him.

 

[Potomac]

Why wasn't Simmons in any of the cobbled classics? Injured? Sick? Not race-ready?
He's on the AGR startlist, which seems a bit too much hills for him.

That's a great question. I had completely forgotten about him this year, other than his one moment at the front of Strade Bianchi

 

[Ricco']

I believe he crashed in Strade Bianche and has been sidelined with injury.

 

[DNP-Old]

Why wasn't Simmons in any of the cobbled classics? Injured? Sick? Not race-ready?
He's on the AGR startlist, which seems a bit too much hills for him.

He wants to pursue his own chances more, and there's little hope of doing so with Pedersen around.

Before the Olympics roll round in August, however, Simmons has other goals on the horizon with the Ardennes Classics and Strade Bianche. While he has, in the past, been thought of as a rider who can excel on the cobbles of the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix, Simmons explains that having a potential De Ronde winner like Mads Pedersen in his team means that he needs to look for opportunities for his own success elsewhere.

“For me, a race like Amstel, if I come into it at the right weight with the right preparations I can be quite good,” Simmons says. “Also now in our team with how well Mads rides and the riders we’ve brought in, there’s not really a space for me if I want to go for a result in the Classics. We discussed with the team that it’s better for me and them that I can go to Amstel with Mattias [Skjelmose] and then we have two options to pay with. Especially because I like to attack and move early, so I can be the one to do that, rather than just doing drag racing in the Classics.”

 

[Volderke]

He wants to pursue his own chances more, and there's little hope of doing so with Pedersen around.

Seems strange...
Either they could have given him leadership role in smaller cobbled races, or a second leadership in RVV and PR, and we have all seen this can be beneficial having multiple good riders in the team where one can attack and one can just follow wheels...?

 

[Netserk]

Seems strange...
Either they could have given him leadership role in smaller cobbled races, or a second leadership in RVV and PR, and we have all seen this can be beneficial having multiple good riders in the team where one can attack and one can just follow wheels...?

Ahead of Stuyven and Skujins?

He's just not good enough for a greater role than what Kirsch had.

 

[red_flanders]

Seems strange...
Either they could have given him leadership role in smaller cobbled races, or a second leadership in RVV and PR, and we have all seen this can be beneficial having multiple good riders in the team where one can attack and one can just follow wheels...?

I think if someone has the form they become hard to deny for any of what you suggest. See Jorgenson. I don't think anyone suspected he'd be as strong as he is this year, and when you are, chances are made for you. I would suspect Simmons is not strong enough to warrant leadership, even in the way you suggest, right now.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Greg LeMond will come back to win it. He's put on some weight especially for this purpose.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Greg LeMond will come back to win it. He's put on some weight especially for this purpose.

He‘s beaten Van der Poel in ‘85 and ‘92, why can‘t he do it in ‘25?

 

[Sciatic]

Greg LeMond will come back to win it. He's put on some weight especially for this purpose.

I know he gave P-R a try several times, but it have been more fitting if he could have a Lombardia or LBL top prize—he was one of the top riders in those races.

 

[perico]

I know he gave P-R a try several times, but it have been more fitting if he could have a Lombardia or LBL top prize—he was one of the top riders in those races.

He was a top rider on all races and had top 10s in Roubaix

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I just wonder if there's something about the way that cobbled racing is, that just seems hard to replicate. The US produces a decent amount of riders in the type of rider that would be suited to these races, but doesn't seem to get the results out of them, so not sure if it's a situation where the riders are physiologically there, but operating at a deficit in terms of experience dealing with the specific nature of the cobbled classics when they make it across to the World Tour level. Are there any amateur races or junior races that use any cobbles in North America? I'm not aware of any at the pro level, but there obviously are options at least for riders to learn Flanders style racing in domestic races in North America, with things like the Richmond World Championships circuit or the multitude of cobbled bergs in Pittsburgh.

While Roubaix is something of a unique proposition even within the World Tour calendar, at least Flanders-style racing is transferable to it.

 

[Sciatic]

He was a top rider on all races and had top 10s in Roubaix

Of course he was great across the whole cycling calendar (before the shooting), but top 10s in Roubaix doesn’t mean he’s he’s there at the line with the winner, whereas in Lombardia he was barely nipped at the line by a superb Kelly. That’s all I meant by more fitting.