I think there is a general consensus as to what the biggest races are around here (in men's cycling):
Before we delve into the stats I have to note two potentially controversial calls:
(1) I am not counting the Olympic Games. Not because I deem them unworthy but because they are not held frequently enough.
(2) I am counting the World Championships Individual Time Trial. I think that title is valuable enough to earn it a spot on the list.
With that being said, where are countries at?
And who actually has a chance to win this?
Italy: The boot's success is largely built on its incredible dominance in the first decade of this century as well as Vincenzo Nibali's carrying them through the Tour de France and the Vuelta a España. The last decade has seen much slimmer pickings but the Italians nonetheless managed to cling two important wins that had been eluding them (Ronde van Vlaanderen & WC TT). However, with Nibali's retirement and Pozzovivo's aging bones there does not immediately seem to be a candidate to add the last remaining scalps to their collection. Or could Filippo Ganna still fly in june?
Spain: Similarly to Italy the Spanish seemed to have already had their golden age. A larger problem however is that today's young lions follow in the footsteps of illustrious predecessors like Alberto Contador and Alejandro Valverde and those paths have already been threaded. The country may just have to wait for Juan Antonio Flecha's son to enter the sport.
Australia: The Aussies may not have won as many times as other entries on this list but they picked their battles well. Our weary warriors cannot rest quite yet though. While most of the remaining gambit does not seem impossible for the likes of Jai Hindley and Jay Vine there's also a difficult battle for Flanders ahead. If things are to be settled quickly it is up to Michael Matthews to take out his earrings and ask his great grandfather how to fight in such terrain.
United Kingdom: It has been years since the words 'Team Sky' have graced riders' jerseys but the memories are vivid. The creeping ominosity of their platoon hitting the front broke many a competitor's (and viewer's) morale even before the mountain itself was flattened. Those words and methods were also synonymous with the UK's biggest successes but they are my no means the only ones. In recent years the Yates brothers have been filling out some gaps in the trophy case. Both them, and their countrymen, seem to have averted their gaze from Brussels though much like Geraint Thomas did before.
Colombia: A commendation is in order here as Colombia is the first and only country to win all seven one-week stage races (this century). In doing so they firmly established themselves as one of the leading nations in cycling. That being said, even the sharpest knife in the kitchen only cuts one way. If they are to win this contest they will have to somehow excel at terrain where they have been historically hopeless. A spark of hope can be found in 2002's World Champion (ITT) Santiago Botero. Had he not done so then undoubtedly that race would be seen as a major roadblock today. Perhaps some young Colombian riders see similar chances in unexplored avenues.
Slovenia: Who would have thought ten years ago that Slovenia would be so high on this list? While they had several strong cyclists in the past none reached the heights that Primoz Roglic and Tadej Pogacar would. To have them both at once is a blessing and raises the nation's limit to unknown levels. It is difficult to say that Pogacar cannot win the remaining races himself and that is without even considering Matej Mohoric. Clearly Slovenia plans to make this a close contest.
Belgium: In more ways than one Belgium has recently been the Colombia of Europe. In the 21st century they have won every classic (often multiple times) but folded when it came to stage races. It has been the cause of more than one journalistic tear since the 80s. A new generation, spearheaded by Remco Evenepoel, seems ready to fill in at least some gaps however. Even half the hype coming to fruition would bring the Belgians within touching distance of the grand trophy.
Netherlands: Over the last two decades the Netherlands have had their share of bad luck and an aptitude for snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory. As unfortunate as some of it was it bears reminding that the Dutch mafia were the original hypebeasts on this forum. Orange can quickly turn to gold in the eyes of the believer. While the Netherlands have proven time and time again to have talents aplenty and will undoubtedly continue to chip away at this it remains unclear how they will manage to do so sufficiently fast.
Denmark: It is said that once every 1200 years or so the blood of the Dane boils and he sets out to try and conquer the rest of Europe. You would believe it seeing how all of Denmark's wins have come since 2017. With monstrous talents like Jonas Vingegaard, Kasper Asgreen and Mads Padersen at the helm it is possible to imagine a scenario where they manage to finish what Jakob Fuglsang started. It is a big ask but the Danes have been throwing bikes and bike paths at their populace for decades now. It is about time that started paying dividends.
There are several countries on this list that I do not rate the chances of at all (namely Germany, Switzerland, United States and Russia). Those nations peaked 10 or more years in the past with few bright spots afterwards and/or were overly dependent on one rider to get the score they did.
Germany: Taking more than a few pages out of Australia's roadbook, Germany managed to win over half of the races on the list. Most of the ones that remain however are some of the most difficult ones to win and since Andreas Klöden no German has shown true aptitude for them.
Switzerland: Much like his ancient counterpart Spartacus earned himself a spot in the history books without winning it all. There is hope in riders like Marc Hirschi but that is not enough.
United States: Before Team Sky there was US Postal but Europe can mess up its own deliveries just fine. There are still promising prospects to be found here (e.g. Magnus Sheffield) but realistically the US' national pride would have to be severely hurt in order for them to become actual contenders.
Russia: In the last decade Russians have won Tour de Romandie twice. Aleksandr Vlasov could make any national team but there is still far too much ground to cover.
- The five monuments
- The three grand tours
- The seven one-week stage races (Paris-Nice, Tirreno-Adriatico, Volta a Catalunya, Vuelta al Pais Vasco, Tour de Romandie, Tour de Suisse, Critérium du Dauphiné)
- The world championships
- The Olympic Games
Before we delve into the stats I have to note two potentially controversial calls:
(1) I am not counting the Olympic Games. Not because I deem them unworthy but because they are not held frequently enough.
(2) I am counting the World Championships Individual Time Trial. I think that title is valuable enough to earn it a spot on the list.
With that being said, where are countries at?
| Country | # Races won (out of 17) | Races missing |
| Italy | 15 | Tour de Suisse, Critérium du Dauphiné |
| Spain | 13 | Ronde van Vlaanderen, Paris-Roubaix, WC ITT, Tour de Romandie |
| Australia | 13 | Ronde van Vlaanderen, Il Lombardia, Vuelta a España, Vuelta al Pais Vasco |
| United Kingdom | 12 | Ronde van Vlaanderen, Paris-Roubaix, Liège-Bastogne-Liège, Il Lombardia, Vuelta al Pais Vasco |
| Colombia | 12 | Milano-Sanremo, Ronde van Vlaanderen, Paris-Roubaix, Liège-Bastogne-Liège, WC RR |
| Slovenia | ||
| Switzerland | 9 | WC RR, Giro d'Italia, Tour de France, Vuelta a España, Paris-Nice, Vuelta al Pais Vasco, Tour de Romandie, Critérium du Dauphiné |
| Germany | 9 | Liège-Bastogne-Liège, Il Lombardia, WC RR, Giro d'Italia, Tour de France, Vuelta a España, Volta a Catalunya, Critérium du Dauphiné |
| Belgium | ||
| Netherlands | ||
| United States | 8* (counting Lance Armstrong's results) | Milano-Sanremo, Ronde van Vlaanderen, Paris-Roubaix, Il Lombardia, WC RR, WC TT, Giro d'Italia, Tirreno-Adriatico, Volta a Catalunya |
| Denmark | Milano-Sanremo, Paris-Roubaix, WC TT, Giro d'Italia, Vuelta a España, Paris-Nice, | |
| Russia | 6 | Milano-Sanremo, Ronde van Vlaanderen, Paris-Roubaix, Liège-Bastogne-Liège, Il Lombardia, WC RR, WC TT, Tour de France, Paris-Nice, Tirreno-Adriatico, Critérium du Dauphiné |
And who actually has a chance to win this?
Italy: The boot's success is largely built on its incredible dominance in the first decade of this century as well as Vincenzo Nibali's carrying them through the Tour de France and the Vuelta a España. The last decade has seen much slimmer pickings but the Italians nonetheless managed to cling two important wins that had been eluding them (Ronde van Vlaanderen & WC TT). However, with Nibali's retirement and Pozzovivo's aging bones there does not immediately seem to be a candidate to add the last remaining scalps to their collection. Or could Filippo Ganna still fly in june?
Spain: Similarly to Italy the Spanish seemed to have already had their golden age. A larger problem however is that today's young lions follow in the footsteps of illustrious predecessors like Alberto Contador and Alejandro Valverde and those paths have already been threaded. The country may just have to wait for Juan Antonio Flecha's son to enter the sport.
Australia: The Aussies may not have won as many times as other entries on this list but they picked their battles well. Our weary warriors cannot rest quite yet though. While most of the remaining gambit does not seem impossible for the likes of Jai Hindley and Jay Vine there's also a difficult battle for Flanders ahead. If things are to be settled quickly it is up to Michael Matthews to take out his earrings and ask his great grandfather how to fight in such terrain.
United Kingdom: It has been years since the words 'Team Sky' have graced riders' jerseys but the memories are vivid. The creeping ominosity of their platoon hitting the front broke many a competitor's (and viewer's) morale even before the mountain itself was flattened. Those words and methods were also synonymous with the UK's biggest successes but they are my no means the only ones. In recent years the Yates brothers have been filling out some gaps in the trophy case. Both them, and their countrymen, seem to have averted their gaze from Brussels though much like Geraint Thomas did before.
Colombia: A commendation is in order here as Colombia is the first and only country to win all seven one-week stage races (this century). In doing so they firmly established themselves as one of the leading nations in cycling. That being said, even the sharpest knife in the kitchen only cuts one way. If they are to win this contest they will have to somehow excel at terrain where they have been historically hopeless. A spark of hope can be found in 2002's World Champion (ITT) Santiago Botero. Had he not done so then undoubtedly that race would be seen as a major roadblock today. Perhaps some young Colombian riders see similar chances in unexplored avenues.
Slovenia: Who would have thought ten years ago that Slovenia would be so high on this list? While they had several strong cyclists in the past none reached the heights that Primoz Roglic and Tadej Pogacar would. To have them both at once is a blessing and raises the nation's limit to unknown levels. It is difficult to say that Pogacar cannot win the remaining races himself and that is without even considering Matej Mohoric. Clearly Slovenia plans to make this a close contest.
Belgium: In more ways than one Belgium has recently been the Colombia of Europe. In the 21st century they have won every classic (often multiple times) but folded when it came to stage races. It has been the cause of more than one journalistic tear since the 80s. A new generation, spearheaded by Remco Evenepoel, seems ready to fill in at least some gaps however. Even half the hype coming to fruition would bring the Belgians within touching distance of the grand trophy.
Netherlands: Over the last two decades the Netherlands have had their share of bad luck and an aptitude for snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory. As unfortunate as some of it was it bears reminding that the Dutch mafia were the original hypebeasts on this forum. Orange can quickly turn to gold in the eyes of the believer. While the Netherlands have proven time and time again to have talents aplenty and will undoubtedly continue to chip away at this it remains unclear how they will manage to do so sufficiently fast.
Denmark: It is said that once every 1200 years or so the blood of the Dane boils and he sets out to try and conquer the rest of Europe. You would believe it seeing how all of Denmark's wins have come since 2017. With monstrous talents like Jonas Vingegaard, Kasper Asgreen and Mads Padersen at the helm it is possible to imagine a scenario where they manage to finish what Jakob Fuglsang started. It is a big ask but the Danes have been throwing bikes and bike paths at their populace for decades now. It is about time that started paying dividends.
There are several countries on this list that I do not rate the chances of at all (namely Germany, Switzerland, United States and Russia). Those nations peaked 10 or more years in the past with few bright spots afterwards and/or were overly dependent on one rider to get the score they did.
Germany: Taking more than a few pages out of Australia's roadbook, Germany managed to win over half of the races on the list. Most of the ones that remain however are some of the most difficult ones to win and since Andreas Klöden no German has shown true aptitude for them.
Switzerland: Much like his ancient counterpart Spartacus earned himself a spot in the history books without winning it all. There is hope in riders like Marc Hirschi but that is not enough.
United States: Before Team Sky there was US Postal but Europe can mess up its own deliveries just fine. There are still promising prospects to be found here (e.g. Magnus Sheffield) but realistically the US' national pride would have to be severely hurt in order for them to become actual contenders.
Russia: In the last decade Russians have won Tour de Romandie twice. Aleksandr Vlasov could make any national team but there is still far too much ground to cover.
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