First rest day poll - who will win the 2025 tour de France?

[Andre]

"Hope in reality is the worst of all evils because it prolongs the torments of man". Friedrich Nietzsche...but I am addicted to it, so I voted Remco.
i.e. I understand all the Primoz votes cause he is a very likeable fellow.

 

[CyclistAbi]

If we analyse the poll then currently Rogla is at around 10% chance, compared to Pogi and only Jonas with slightly better chance, the other most likely top 5 contenders all "mentioned".

So what seems to pain some is Rogla having 10% chance, based on this poll, now that is some serious anti-bias right there, after all this is Rogla we are talking about.

 

[slim charles]

We need a poll to determine what the correct way to vote in a poll is

 

[glassmoon]

The shady clown from the shady team will win this bike race... and many more.

 

[Pantani_lives]

The rest day is my favorite day in the Tour. We can have intelligent discussions and strategical analyses. TV programs and podcasts continue as if there had been a stage. Conflicting opinions, unfounded rumors and sensational headlines can be spread. We can arrange our day schedule as it fits, without having to worry about those annoying riders coming in between and drawing all attention towards themselves. Long live the rest day!

 

[Schultz0620]

If the rumors of illness within the UAE team is correct, there is definitely at the minimum, a chance for Jonas to take back time this week. If Pog is healthy, it's difficult to see him lose at this point.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Before the race I said that Pogacar vs Vingegaard in July is like Santa Claus during Christmas.
Good news: looks like Santa Claus won't be missing this year.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Before the race I joked that Pogacar vs Vingegaard in July is like Santa Claus during Christmas.
Good news: looks like Santa Claus won't be missing this year.

It isn‘t real? Thank God, Roglič can win the Tour.

 

[Escarabajo]

We need a poll to determine what the correct way to vote in a poll is

We wouldn't need this poll then.

 

[topcat]

On the first rest day, I have to say that I feel insanely strong. I haven't attacked yet, but you know it's coming. I'm supremely confident that I can watch all the way to Paris.

 

[pman]

I am a Pog fan but I think this poll is being hard on Jonas who imho has been the more dominant Tour rider of the two over their careers. I am worried about UAE. We'll see. I just want an honest, fair test between the two. I think the poll should be closer to 50-50.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

I am a Pog fan but I think this poll is being hard on Jonas who imho has been the more dominant Tour rider of the two over their careers. I am worried about UAE. We'll see. I just want an honest, fair test between the two. I think the poll should be closer to 50-50.

If you think it’s 50-50, that means you expect Vingegaard to take time on Pogacar over the rest of the Tour.

If you think it’s 50-50 on who will take more time on the other over the rest of the Tour, you think k Pogacar will win because he already is 1:17 ahead.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I am a Pog fan but I think this poll is being hard on Jonas who imho has been the more dominant Tour rider of the two over their careers. I am worried about UAE. We'll see. I just want an honest, fair test between the two. I think the poll should be closer to 50-50.

The poll doesn't reflect the probability. If every user thought it's 51% vs 49% in Pog's favour then Pog would have 100% in this poll.

 

[pman]

If you think it’s 50-50, that means you expect Vingegaard to take time on Pogacar over the rest of the Tour.

If you think it’s 50-50 on who will take more time on the other over the rest of the Tour, you think k Pogacar will win because he already is 1:17 ahead.

Yeah, that's really the key point. 1:17 is not insignificant. Essentially those of us who like Jonas' chances assume he'll either break Pog the way he did in his two wins or he's going to have a phenomenal mountain time trial. But if you take the approach the the two riders are essentially equal, then yes, Pog looks like the obvious choice because he has time in hand.

 

[Lequack]

How can you not love this guy

 

[Netserk]

The poll doesn't reflect the probability. If every user thought it's 51% vs 49% in Pog's favour then Pog would have 100% in this poll.

Only if every user was @Devil's Elbow.

 

[pman]

Does anyone still worry about Pog in the extreme heat? I know he has won some big stages in the heat the last year but I still have my concerns. It looks like Thursday is going to be the hottest day in Pyrenees. On the flip side, Saturday looks like it could be downright chilly by Tour standards and wet, aka, a Pog special. Make of that what you want. So Pog might be missing his weather by a day or he might get the perfect weather for him on Saturday.

 

[YavorD]

Does anyone still worry about Pog in the extreme heat? I know he has won some big stages in the heat the last year but I still have my concerns. It looks like Thursday is going to be the hottest day in Pyrenees. On the flip side, Saturday looks like it could be downright chilly by Tour standards and wet, aka, a Pog special. Make of that what you want. So Pog might be missing his weather by a day or he might get the perfect weather for him on Saturday.

Saturday is going to be downright cold if the forecast stays.
It will be probably less than 10 degrees on Tourmalet.

 

[pman]

Saturday is going to be downright cold if the forecast stays.
It will be probably less than 10 degrees on Tourmalet.

Yeah, cold and wet. The rain is predicted for the first part of the day but if that shifts to the afternoon and it's cold and wet, watch out. Jonas might hate the cold as much as Pog dislikes the heat- which is comical considering where Ving is from. Especially after a tough, hot mountain time trial the day before. A cold, wet Saturday in the mountains could be Pog's chance.

 

[ChewbaccaDefense]

How can you not love this guy

It's gotta be hard to lift all 18 pounds of him...

Hey EF, yellow bike tomorrow, or GTFO.

 

[Lequack]

Simpler times, TDF 1962 motor caravan. What are helmets?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1945210573844607042

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