First rest day poll - who will win the 2025 tour de France?

[Krzysztof_O]

Compared to the pre-race poll Pogi lost 8% but...his main rivals didn't gain. Lipippotamus guy looks like a new threat. Must be some new super-talent. I don't know him, should educate myself.

 

[peterfin]

Compared to the pre-race poll Pogi lost 8% but...his main rivals didn't gain. Lipippotamus guy looks like a new threat. Must be some new super-talent. I don't know him, should educate myself.

In all his enthusiasm, the Lipippotamus will blow himself up while trying to follow the raptor mutants. I expect Pogacar to win huge in a never-seen-before watt/kg effort with Vingegaard 2nd at 5 minutes. Remco and Roglic battle for third (which keeps the GC somewhat interesting) at a 10 minutes distance and the others are +15 minutes behind.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

There are all sorts of reasons to vote. If the poll 'should' be 100% Pogacar then what's the point of the poll? I think everyone knows he's the favorite

The reason to vote should be to answer the question asked by the poll. If people invent their own question and answer that question instead, then what's the point of the poll?

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

The reason to vote should be to answer the question asked by the poll. If people invent their own question and answer that question instead, then what's the point of the poll?

It's not that everyone is voting what they wish for though. And the point of the poll is to give feedback of the forums feelings and views. Sometimes people want to express their feelings towards riders by making irrational poll decisions. It can also be a decision tainted by hopium. I honestly don't see the harm. It's not that we are collectively deciding on who to put our money on here.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Not a lot of faith in remco so far

 

[Boes]

The only way Poggy doesn't win is if they screw up massively and somehow Jorgenson gets a huge bonus in the break (Kuss Vuelta vibes).

Visma bees can scheme all they want, if Poggy drops everyone every time the road goes even slightly uphill, you can't beat him.

 

[YavorD]

The reason to vote should be to answer the question asked by the poll. If people invent their own question and answer that question instead, then what's the point of the poll?

I am with you on this one.
Voting for who they WANT to win is essentially answering a totally different question.
Sadly, many people do it. Emotional vote just screws up the entire voting imo.

 

[Netserk]

The reason to vote should be to answer the question asked by the poll. If people invent their own question and answer that question instead, then what's the point of the poll?

I don't only care about identifying the most likely winner, I also care about identifying underrated picks.

How many "correct" answers were there to the Giro poll? Rogla and Ayuso were clearly more likely winners than anyone else pre-race, right? I'm happy with my Gee vote, and would have been so to an even greater degree if he had managed to top-3.

 

[Rou]

Nice poll to determine the fanbase for each rider.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

I don't only care about identifying the most likely winner, I also care about identifying underrated picks.

There are 100 ways to do that and 99 of them are better than using your vote in the winner poll.

 

[Netserk]

There are 100 ways to do that and 99 of them are better than using your vote in the winner poll.

I don't think so. It should get you more credit to identify less likely winners, and it makes the poll more informative.

How informative would the Giro poll have been if there had only been 2 options: Rogla and Ayuso?

 

[QueenStagiaire]

I think it makes sense to vote for someone who you think could win, even though he isn‘t most likely, but it doesn‘t make sense to vote for someone who you think should get more recognition for his podium chances or who you like the most. Not everyone has to vote for Pogačar if you think there‘s an upset coming, but you shouldn‘t vote for someone who doesn‘t have a reasonable chance.

 

[Squire]

Have people still not figured out that a significant subset of forumites does the very annoying thing of voting for who they want to win rather than who they think will win in these polls?

Sadly, the only valid option to vote for post-TT is Pogacar.

Voted Pog as he is still the obvious favourite. But I'm not totally dismissive of Vingegaard's chances, and I cheer for him for underdog purposes, CQ game purposes and for anti-Pog-domination purposes. The only sane answer to the poll is Pog though, unfortunately.

I do have Lipowitz as equal or maybe even bigger favourite for 3rd over Remco now, following Lipo's great TT and impressive showing yesterday coupled with Remco not looking that impressive. I expect Lipo to be very solid in the mountains and to recover well.

 

[topcat]

The poll is obviously a joke. Assuming no crashes/injuries/sickness, Pog is the overwhelming favourite and there is a very small chance that Vingo can beat him.
Nobody else has a whore's melch of a chance. I voted for Remco. I feel like I'm striking a blow for freedom from the chains imposed by western society.

 

[Netserk]

I think it makes sense to vote for someone who you think could win, even though he isn‘t most likely, but it doesn‘t make sense to vote for someone who you think should get more recognition for his podium chances or who you like the most. Not everyone has to vote for Pogačar if you think there‘s an upset coming, but you shouldn‘t vote for someone who doesn‘t have a reasonable chance.

I think it was plausible that Gee could have been gifted time in the break, like in the Tour last year, and then been with a real chance to take the win. Unfortunately, he was on his back foot for too long and only had a super day on stage 16.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Have people still not figured out that a significant subset of forumites does the very annoying thing of voting for who they want to win rather than who they think will win in these polls?

Sadly, the only valid option to vote for post-TT is Pogacar.

I agree with you. I can't accept any answer other than Pogacar or Vingegaard unless you vote in Vino.

 

[Peyroteo94]

The poll is obviously a joke. Assuming no crashes/injuries/sickness, Pog is the overwhelming favourite and there is a very small chance that Vingo can beat him.
Nobody else has a whore's melch of a chance. I voted for Remco. I feel like I'm striking a blow for freedom from the chains imposed by western society.

The question with Remco (or any other) is: Could he win with a 10 minutes advantage?

 

[Ilmaestro99]

People are way overthinking and arguing about something that's supposed to be a bit of rest day fun and some discussion.

Vote for who you want and how you want and leave a comment. It might be interesting to look back on in 2 weeks if there is a shock result.

 

[Barnacle Bill]

I remember in 2022 I think only 5 or 6 people voted for Vingo in the equivalent rest day poll. Not that I expect a similar minority option to win this time - Pogi feels as inevitable as last year, wish it was 40-40-20 rather than 90-10.

 

[Bolder]

Losing so much time in the TT was a near fatal blow for Jonas. I don't see any scenario in which Pog can't, at worst, limit losses to a few seconds in the mountains, no matter what Visma throws at him. Unless he has an unexpected physical collapse, illness, or crash.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Based on what we seen so far it's reasonable to expect Rogla already moved in top 3, just as the poll seems to suggest. Some anti-bias can't cope with that and the main problem i guess is this goes against the social media narrative on paper favourites. On where Rogla was cancelled and based on that narrative Rogla isn't even competing at the Tour 2025.

Imagine the surprise involved.

 

[Red Rick]

The reason to vote should be to answer the question asked by the poll. If people invent their own question and answer that question instead, then what's the point of the poll?

To measure what people want to vote for. Regardless of why they want to vote for something.

You could make an actual accurate poll but it's just a H2H poll between Pog/Vingegaard where you just put them in percentage brackets and you don't put a Vino option for someone else winning.

But these polls have always been like this, everywhere, so I just don't get the frustration. I find it more interesting to see how this compares to actual betting odds than whether everyone votes Pogacar or not.

 

[CyclistAbi]

There is really no need to apologise, for moving Rogla in top 3 already and to act as that being some kind of surprise.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

To measure what people want to vote for. Regardless of why they want to vote for something.

No, that's a who do you want to win poll. You know, like the one we had pre-race.

 

[Kaptain Kool]

Voted for Onley because I thought he would need some votes. Guess I was wrong.