Future GT Winner (Edition 2016)

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Chaves, Lopez...

not convinced on the others. Bardet needs a climby GT, but then he gets outclimbed by guys like Chaves and in the future Lopez.. Pinot seems prone to offdays. Porte has too much bad luck. Majka no way.

Yates maybe...

 

[manolo57]

Chaves is clearly the safe bet. Lopez why not, but he has to show he is able to do well for 3 weeks.

Landa maybe, but he has to confirm his Giro 2015, even if he has the legs to win a climby GT I think.

And Pinot if he is able to be more consistant during 3 weeks.

 

[dirkprovin]

Lopez - far too early to really have any real idea. Lets reassess after he's completed a couple of GTs.
Bardet - maybe, he may be hampering himself by putting all his eggs in the TDF basket
Landa - poor ITT kneecaps him, not sure UK Postal's the right team in any case
Majka - not sure he has that something extra, he'd need everything to go his way (prob others having accidents/illness)
A.Yates - I have my doubts. seems to avoid absolutely disastrous days but tends to race rather passively. Mediocre ITT doesn't help nor poor positioning skills
Pinot - whilst I think he can be "thereabouts", I'm just not sure he'll be able to beat those who are more consistent TTers
Chaves - probably the best outright climber on this list. his ITT has improved but will never be a strength.Think he might snag 1-2 but more likely Vuelta or Giro than Tour
Kruijswijk - podium = quite possible, might need everything to go his way if he's to win one
Porte - in short NO !! excellent super-dom but hasn't the brains nor the sound judgement under pressure. ITT inconsistent and frankly over-rated

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

There's nobody on this list I'd assume will win a GT, other than Dumoulin getting a second at some point. But there's also nobody on this list I'd put money on not winning a GT at some point, although Majka seems unlikely. People forget just how random winners of GTs can be, particularly the Vuelta but also editions of the Giro with a weak field. Recent GT winners include Cobo, Hesjedal, Horner, Aru and Scarponi none of whom were obviously in a superior league to these guys.

A rider can even get lucky with the opposition or parcours at the Tour as both Nibali and Wiggins did. Nibali was already a proven GT winner, but most of the guys above could win a Tour like his without developing to his level with a couple of well placed crashes.

There are thirty or forty riders who could win a Vuelta if the perfect circumstances arose. Weak field plus a couple of lucky incidents plus the form of his life.