Future GT Winner (Edition 2019)

[Red Rick]

Surprised to see Sivakov ahead of Evenepoel.


Generally I really think these kind of polls don't really respect how few GT winners every generation usually has. Max average per birth year is 3 winners, and a guy like Sivakov isn't close to the best of his generation at this point. I think the gap between a typical potential winner and podium candidates/top 5 fixtures are pretty clear usually.

 

[JosephK]

Surprised to see Sivakov ahead of Evenepoel.


Generally I really think these kind of polls don't really respect how few GT winners every generation usually has. Max average per birth year is 3 winners, and a guy like Sivakov isn't close to the best of his generation at this point. I think the gap between a typical potential winner and podium candidates/top 5 fixtures are pretty clear usually.

I, too, was surprised to see Sivakov ahead of Evenepoel. Sivakov has won a nice stage race at the world tour level this year and looks to have very good climbing skills as well as decent time-trialing ability. He was very good at the Giro but not at the level of top-five GC placement. He might well continue to progress and become an elite-level GC competitor, but right now he's not at the same level as Pogacar or Evenepoel, talent-wise. And while his climbing ability is strong, he is not at the level of Lopez. Some will say that because he is at Ineos, he has more of a sure track toward GC success than other prospects. But I don't know about that. Ineos was not the dominant team this year that they've been in previous years, though they did succeed in winning the Tour with a generational talent (Bernal).

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Pogacar is the only on that list who I can see winning a GT next year. The others are either too young and untried, too old and limited or just simply do not fit the category of GT riders.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Pogacar is the only on that list who I can see winning a GT next year. The others are either too young and untried, too old and limited or just simply do not fit the category of GT riders.

The survey is not about 2020 winners: it is about winning a GT "in the future"

 

[SafeBet]

Surprised to see Sivakov ahead of Evenepoel.


Generally I really think these kind of polls don't really respect how few GT winners every generation usually has. Max average per birth year is 3 winners, and a guy like Sivakov isn't close to the best of his generation at this point. I think the gap between a typical potential winner and podium candidates/top 5 fixtures are pretty clear usually.

What is the biggest gap: Nibali and Froome to Contador/Schleck in 2007 or Sivakov to Bernal/Pogacar in 2019?
I'm not really sure those differences are so clear at such young age.

 

[Red Rick]

What is the biggest gap: Nibali and Froome to Contador/Schleck in 2007 or Sivakov to Bernal/Pogacar in 2019?
I'm not really sure those differences are so clear at such young age.

If you compare Nibali to those with similar results at 22 in 2007, he is a huge outlier. Do you remember way back when there was a debate whether Nibali or Gesink would become the better rider?

He's also not a pure, explosive climber which develop earlier. Nibali actually got decent results in TTs before he started doing so in the mountains.



Even for the riders that don't show anything before miraculously turning into GT engines, the pattern is pretty clear that they're all big engine TTers.

 

[Anderis]

Sivakov is surely an exceptional rider. He had been the youngest rider to finish in the top10 of a GT in many years at the Giro before Pogacar beat him in that statistics at the Vuelta. He's had an exceptional season. He totally deserves to be considered a future GT winner.

It's just that we've recently got many freaks of nature in road cycling. Bernal, Pogacar, Evenepoel and Van der Poel. It feels like we should only get one rider like that per every 5-10 years but they've all emerged within 2 years. It makes a rider like Sivakov to look less impressive by comparison but he could have easily been hailed as the greatest talent of his generation had he been born a couple of years earlier. He might not been the most impressive young rider of his generation but for me he is still among few most impressive young riders among a longer span of time and he makes the cut as a probable GT winner in the future. He might not be likely to turn better than Bernal, Evenepoel and Pogacar but I find it pretty likely that he will turn better than the generation that came just before them and will come after them, therefore making Sivakov a likely candidate to win a GT that will not be contested by any of these 3 riders in their top shape. There's also a possibility that at least one of these 3 will share the fate of riders like Andy Schleck or Nairo Quintana and will not keep delivering results everyone expected from them after their mid 20-ties, making even more room for Sivakov to win something big at some point.

 

[Brullnux]

Agree with you, I think Sivakov is much more 'normal' talent. He hasn't really shown anything out of this world but he has looked good. Top cyclists are getting younger and younger so I think he's fairly comparable to Nibali (Nibali at his age had shown much less in GTs (as was considered normal back then) but shown obvious talent with a few stages and one day races). Maybe worth mentioning that he only really won the Tour of the Alps because of Tao and his work. I can see him finishing with a grand tour or two though

 

[Brullnux]

If you compare Nibali to those with similar results at 22 in 2007, he is a huge outlier. Do you remember way back when there was a debate whether Nibali or Gesink would become the better rider?

He's also not a pure, explosive climber which develop earlier. Nibali actually got decent results in TTs before he started doing so in the mountains.



Even for the riders that don't show anything before miraculously turning into GT engines, the pattern is pretty clear that they're all big engine TTers.

To me Nibali's progression looks very normal: clear talent as a junior, some good performances in his twenties in both week long stage races and one day races, sometimes challenging for the win. By 25 he was mixing it with the big boys in the Tour and Monuments, before peaking at around 30. It's what you'd expect, I think Contador has a fairly similar progression (reaching a top level at 25) but a bit more dramatic, perhaps because he was a bit better in general.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Contador was slightly more talented early on as he already won the TDF at 24.
Nibali the Vuelta (much lower gt) at 25. Then he had a few near misses in GT's until winnin the Giro 3 years after that, and the TDF the next year.
Contador was much more prolific after his first GT win, winning Giro/Vuelta next year and TDF again later. For Nibali it took a while and I always had the feeling he had to rely more on strategy and cunning then on pure strength. Although in later years Contador also had to become more creative and actually Nibali impressed me more in pure strength

 

[Red Rick]

I think Nibali's highest level is unratable cause the 2 times it happened the greats of the era either crashed out or weren't there.

Still think Nibali's ride on La Toussuire 2015 is highly underrated.

 

[Cance > TheRest]

The survey is not about 2020 winners: it is about winning a GT "in the future"

Oh okay, then surely there are many more names that come to mind than those on that list. But I still think Pogacar is the most likely "future" winner on the list. It is almost ridiculous to have him on the list, as the high probability of him winning a GT makes any speculation unnecessary. All the other names on the list are more grey area, though.

 

[Rollthedice]

Contador was slightly more talented early on as he already won the TDF at 24.
Nibali the Vuelta (much lower gt) at 25. Then he had a few near misses in GT's until winnin the Giro 3 years after that, and the TDF the next year.
Contador was much more prolific after his first GT win, winning Giro/Vuelta next year and TDF again later. For Nibali it took a while and I always had the feeling he had to rely more on strategy and cunning then on pure strength. Although in later years Contador also had to become more creative and actually Nibali impressed me more in pure strength

As far as Grand Tours, Contador was a standout talent, Nibali had to fight for his right to party. But as soon as he got there in 2010 he almost never left, still partying as we speak though his dance moves are a bit slower these days.

Back to this poll, obviously Pogacar looks most likely out of that list.

 

[klintE]

Pogacar is the only on that list who I can see winning a GT next year. The others are either too young and untried, too old and limited or just simply do not fit the category of GT riders.

Meh

 

[Red Rick]

Still waiting to see 2017 Lombardia Nibs in a GT again

 

[42x16ss]

As far as Grand Tours, Contador was a standout talent, Nibali had to fight for his right to party. But as soon as he got there in 2010 he almost never left, still partying as we speak though his dance moves are a bit slower these days.

Back to this poll, obviously Pogacar looks most likely out of that list.

Don't forget that Nibali won Trentino overall, then 11th at the Giro in 2008 riding for Pellizotti and 7th in the 2009 TDF riding for Kreuziger, who he beat.

I also think that he could have won the 2010 Giro as well, but he had to look after Basso in the bad weather, especially on the sterrato.

Everyone knew he was coming.

 

[Rollthedice]

Don't forget that Nibali won Trentino overall, then 11th at the Giro in 2008 riding for Pellizotti and 7th in the 2009 TDF riding for Kreuziger, who he beat.

I also think that he could have won the 2010 Giro as well, but he had to look after Basso in the bad weather, especially on the sterrato.

Everyone knew he was coming.

And I'm sure some thought he will become a great classics rider when he won Plouay, then PT race at 21 after finishing third in Eneco Tour (above one Gilbert). They were right.

 

[42x16ss]

Some saw it the classics potential as well, but it was mostly stage racing. There's still threads kicking around from 2009 where people have discussed it.

 

[Leinster]

Oh okay, then surely there are many more names that come to mind than those on that list. But I still think Pogacar is the most likely "future" winner on the list. It is almost ridiculous to have him on the list, as the high probability of him winning a GT makes any speculation unnecessary. All the other names on the list are more grey area, though.

After the 2009 Tour, (maybe even 2008) if you had claimed that then-24 year old Andy Schleck would never stand on the top step of a GT GC podium, you would have been laughed at. And you would have been right. Or (at different times) Jeff Bernard. Or Purito. Or Kloden.

Pogacar is highly likely to win multiple grand tours, but stranger things have happened than a rider with his talent just never fulfilling it.

 

[Escarabajo]

Oh okay, then surely there are many more names that come to mind than those on that list. But I still think Pogacar is the most likely "future" winner on the list. It is almost ridiculous to have him on the list, as the high probability of him winning a GT makes any speculation unnecessary. All the other names on the list are more grey area, though.

What does this sentence mean?

 

[Parker]

Agree with you, I think Sivakov is much more 'normal' talent. He hasn't really shown anything out of this world but he has looked good. Top cyclists are getting younger and younger so I think he's fairly comparable to Nibali (Nibali at his age had shown much less in GTs (as was considered normal back then) but shown obvious talent with a few stages and one day races). Maybe worth mentioning that he only really won the Tour of the Alps because of Tao and his work. I can see him finishing with a grand tour or two though

Tim Kerrison has said that Sivakov is the best athlete that he's worked with. And he's worked with some athletes. I'm not sure how much he's worked with Bernal though.

I went for Pogacar, Sivakov and Buchmann. We don't know what sort of rider Evenepoel will become yet. One of the others will pick up a soft Giro or Vuelta.

 

[tobydawq]

Still waiting to see 2017 Lombardia Nibs in a GT again

Arh, you know, mid October, everybody is on holiday mode that time of year, winning monuments is practically free of charge.

 

[SafeBet]

Don't forget that Nibali won Trentino overall, then 11th at the Giro in 2008 riding for Pellizotti and 7th in the 2009 TDF riding for Kreuziger, who he beat.

I also think that he could have won the 2010 Giro as well, but he had to look after Basso in the bad weather, especially on the sterrato.

Everyone knew he was coming.

The comparison with Sivakov still holds then. Winner of Trentino, top10 in the Giro, very solid u23 career.
Sivakov is also a non explosive climber and a good TTer, he will obviously need more time than some of his peers to develop completely. His talent is undeniable. Probably the perception of his potential is a bit clouded by what we've seen Pogacar, Bernal and Evenepoel achieve at such young age.

 

[Red Rick]

Arh, you know, mid October, everybody is on holiday mode that time of year, winning monuments is practically free of charge.

Just because an entire peloton doesn't give Valverde a cushy ride to the line doesn't mean it's not a monument

 

[roundabout]

Don't forget that Nibali won Trentino overall, then 11th at the Giro in 2008 riding for Pellizotti and 7th in the 2009 TDF riding for Kreuziger, who he beat.

I also think that he could have won the 2010 Giro as well, but he had to look after Basso in the bad weather, especially on the sterrato.

Everyone knew he was coming.

His 11th in the Giro was something like 10 minutes behind 10th, and his Tour result had nothing to do with supposedly 'riding' for Kreuziger as he did not work for him at any point.