Future GT Winner (Edition 2023)

[Pantani_lives]

Welcome to the twelfth edition of this yearly poll in which the forum tries to predict who will win a Grand Tour in the future. Last year Juan Ayuso won the poll by a wide margin. Sepp Kuss wasn't in it, but he got three votes in 2020.

So which of these cyclists are most likely to win a GT at some point in their career? You have multiple votes. If you have riders in mind who aren't listed, you can mention them in the thread.

Past winners of this poll:

2012 Christopher Froome (won Tour 2013)
2013 Nairo Quintana (won Giro 2014)
2014 Fabio Aru (won Vuelta 2015)
2015 Mikel Landa
2016 Esteban Chaves
2017 Mikel Landa
2018 Egan Bernal (won Tour 2019)
2019 Tadej Pogačar (won Tour 2020)
2020 Remco Evenepoel (won Vuelta 2022)
2021 Jonas Vingegaard (won Tour 2022)
2022 Juan Ayuso
2023 ???

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Ayuso is still far and away the most obvious shout.

Rodriguez could win a Giro or Vuelta, but it doesn't look like Ineos is sending him there any time soon. Similar story for Yates - if he even proves that this year's Tour wasn't the outlier.

Mas could still sneak a Vuelta, but he's going to need a significantly weaker field than this year's and he doesn't have that many opportunities left.

Uijtdebroeks has the climbing talent, but is currently far too onedimensional and I'm not sure to what extent that can be fixed. The combination of his height and lack of TT skills worries me.

Almeida... it's unlikely.

The rest - definitely not. Arensman and Gaudu aren't good enough and Skjelmose and Vlasov should focus on the classics and one-week stage races because GT GCs very clearly aren't their forte.

So only Ayuso gets my vote, just like last year.

 

[Netserk]

Reminder of the most recent [official] first time Grand Tour winners:

2023 Vuelta -- Sepp Kuss
2022 Vuelta -- Remco Evenepoel
2022 Tour -- Jonas Vingegaard
2022 Giro -- Jai Hindley
2020 Giro -- Tao Geoghegan Hart
2020 Tour -- Tadej Pogačar
2019 Vuelta -- Primož Roglič
2019 Tour -- Egan Bernal
2019 Giro -- Richard Carapaz
2018 Vuelta -- Simon Yates
2018 Tour -- Geraint Thomas
2017 Giro -- Tom Dumoulin
2015 Vuelta -- Fabio Aru
2014 Giro -- Nairo Quintana
2013 Vuelta -- Chris Horner
2013 Tour -- Christopher Froome (the 2011 Vuelta was awarded later)
2012 Tour -- Bradley Wiggins
2012 Giro -- Ryder Hesjedal
2011 Vuelta -- Juan José Cobo (at the time)
2011 Tour -- Cadel Evans
2011 Giro -- Michele Scarponi (was first awarded in 2012, so should probably have been listed over Cobo)
2010 Vuelta -- Vincenzo Nibali
2010 Tour -- Andy Schleck (see note for 2011 Giro)
2009 Vuelta -- Alejandro Valverde
2008 Tour -- Carlos Sastre
2007 Vuelta -- Dennis Menchov (IIRC it was at the time his second GT win, but is currently his first)
2007 Tour -- Alberto Contador
2007 Giro -- Danilo Di Luca
2006 Vuelta -- Alexander Vinokourov
2006 Tour -- Óscar Pereiro (and for a brief period of time Floyd Landis)
2006 Giro -- Ivan Basso

 

[Netserk]

Like last year, we're at a point were all the best stage racers have already won a GT, so it's likely we won't get a new one for a while. Kuss won thanks to extraordinary circumstances, and the next best performances of non-winners were the 3rd places of Almeida and A. Yates.

Who can win the Giro in the coming years? They could possibly have to beat Thomas, S. Yates, Carapaz, Hindley, Hart and Kuss.

 

[OlavEH]

Ayuso are by far the most probable choice. Something has to go very wrong if this guy doesn't win a GT.

Uijtdebroeks and Rodriguez follows. The latter most probably in the Giro or the Vuelta.

For the other alternatives it depens on the competition in the Giro and Vuelta. I don't think any of them will ever win the Tour, but the two other GTs could be an option if Pog, Remco, Vinge and eventually Ayuso prioritize the Tour, which will probably be the normal situation.

 

[Gigs_98]

Kinda funny how Landa fooled us into thinking he would become a gt winner all the way to 2017. I guess he was pretty good at the Tour that year.

I remain cautious in this poll. Ayuso seems really really talented but everyone else might very well become a perennial top 5 GC rider, never reaching the top step. You know, just like Landa.

 

[Gigs_98]

Just took a look at previous polls and Kuss was an available option just once (in 2020) with just 3 people picking him:
@Pantani_lives ,@mineralJ and @Nakazar
Congrats to them.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Almeida could get a Vuelta if the top 4 aren’t present honestly. Maybe even Giro depending on the route. To keep in spirit with an outlier via Kuss, Gesink or Kelderman to win the Giro.

 

[Nick2413]

If Skjelmose can improve his consistency he could do it. Otherwise Ayuso and Rodriguez.

 

[staubsauger]

Uijtdebroeks rode a strong Vuelta a Espana. If he doesn't significantly improve his descending he ends up being a better Sivakov however.

That said since he was up there in the Pyrenees and on Angliru, there's enough reason to work on his weakness.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Voted for Ujtedbreckes (i have no ide how to spell this) . Watching him in angliru and tourmalet climbing with the absolut best, knowing he's 20 and doing his first gt, dealing with the 3 weeks well, I think it will happen. Get him to a team that dials in his TT set up, and a couple more seasons of development, he can do it.

He seems to develop at the right rate. That's why I see him more likely than ajuso who just seems extremely over developed for his age and might stall

Never didd I think I would vote for a young overhyped Belgian in one of these polls but here we are.

Ajuso is the next most likely, Rodriguez is also a decent bet and I think people still underestimate Arensmen. Other than that I don't see anybody else do it in any circumstances. If things went differently the last 2 years i would also vote Masnada

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Voted for Ujtedbreckes (i have no ide how to spell this) .

Well you have used most of the correct letters, but it's not completely accurate. Still better than whatever Enric Mas would come up with though.

 

[wansteadimp]

Thomas Gloag +/or any other young climbing talent Jumbo-Visma sign.

 

[Potomac]

Ayuso already won this poll, so that makes me not want to vote for him again.

Edit:

Thinking more about it, I don't think he should be a choice as a previous poll winner.

 

[Potomac]

Yate
Rodriguez
Almeida

 

[nightowl]

Uijtdebroeks really impressed me with his climbing and he’s only 20 - the consistency and TTing could certainly still come. He has every chance of getting at least one I think.

 

[SafeBet]

Ayuso is still far and away the most obvious shout.

Rodriguez could win a Giro or Vuelta, but it doesn't look like Ineos is sending him there any time soon. Similar story for Yates - if he even proves that this year's Tour wasn't the outlier.

Uijtdebroeks has the climbing talent, but is currently far too onedimensional and I'm not sure to what extent that can be fixed. The combination of his height and lack of TT skills worries me.

I voted for these three.
I agree Uijtdebroeks is very limited at the moment but the skills he already possesses (recovery, endurance) might be the key components in winning a GT and are generally the hardest to train / improve. His time trialling can't be that bad if properly addressed considering the level he had as a Junior.

Ayuso has stalled in his second year after an incredible neo pro season. Could be growing pains, could be the imperfect winter prep, could be he's already at physical peak and won't be able to improve further. Personally I believe he has the highest ceiling among the riders mentioned.
And he could become the only rider to win this poll two years in a row.

Rodriguez is probably the kind of rider who can steadily progress and hit his prime a bit later but I'm not sure that's gonna be enough to win a GT, especially because the home GT might be the least suited to his characteristic. He also tends to crash way too much.

All of them are looking at a 10+ years window of possible GT wins (without accidents or other medical / clinical issues). But as @DNP-Old pointed out elsewhere it's worth wondering whether the high level of professionalism these riders went through as teenagers means they are much closer to their ceiling than 20 years olders normally are. If that's the case it's possible none of them will ever win a GT.

 

[wheresmybrakes]

Almeida could get a Vuelta if the top 4 aren’t present honestly. Maybe even Giro depending on the route. To keep in spirit with an outlier via Kuss, Gesink or Kelderman to win the Giro.

Top 4?

 

[Izzyeviel]

Carlos, Ayuso, Almeida are the obvious ones. But I reckon Arensman can win one or two Giros, & Landa can grab a Vuelta.

 

[Netserk]

Top 4?

1. Vingegaard
2. Pogi
3. Rogla
4. Thomas

 

[Red Rick]

To me this isnt so much about level but about which of the lot is gonna go for the soft Giros and maybe soft Vueltas the most

 

[SHAD0W93]

Top 4?

Netserk’s list and depending on the user, Evenepoel.

 

[SafeBet]

To me this isnt so much about level but about which of the lot is gonna go for the soft Giros and maybe soft Vueltas the most

That is true but you still need to reach a level higher than, say, Mikel Landa to win a soft Giro. Or at least hit it for 3 weeks.
Otherwise you're not beating the Hindley or TGH of this world.
I'm not entirely sure the current level of Mas or Ayuso would be enough.

 

[BigCoward]

I'd say Pidcock is more likely than some on the list. Now Brailsford is back working his magic.

 

[EddyMazzoleni]

Carlos Rodriguez Cano deserves some respect, he had a great Tour, has a big engine and can TT, i rate him on par with Ayuso